xbl Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Really? you've been saying this for months? Tom Costley, head of TNS in Scotland, said: “The narrowing of the gap represents a drift in both the Yes and the No votes, rather than any strong movement on either side." Oh dear oh dear. Clearly you never watched the Newsnicht link above that I was referring to. Still, its all going to plan. Taste the fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 His own poll shows a 1.47% shift towards YES from November to December. It also shows a reduction in Yes support of 4% from April 2013 to 27th November 2013. Momentummmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 What's undeniably the case is that 27% for Yes less 10 months before the referendum is an absolutely disasterous position to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 His own poll shows a 1.47% shift towards YES from November to December. Here's a snippet from their own website. However, the small month-by-month changes in opinion have reduced the lead of the No vote by 5 percentage points since September, and by 7 percentage points among those certain to vote. 1.47%, within the margin of error, can be anything from a 1.63% reverse to a 3.47% gain. For proof of "momentum" we'd need to see something in several opinion pollsters between polls in excess of 3% (plus or minus margin of error). The long-term momentum, by that metric, is essentially zero, in some cases being only marginally positive or negative. This does not represent "momentum". It also shows a reduction in Yes support of 4% from April 2013 to 27th November 2013. Momentummmm Precisely. It's bobbing along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 What's undeniably the case is that 27% for Yes less 10 months before the referendum is an absolutely disasterous position to be in. Sure, as the polls narrow, and the No lot get ever more panicky, just you keep telling yourself that. The polls are closing, and the pollsters are agreeing with the trend I spotted months ago. Tide has turned now boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It also shows a reduction in Yes support of 4% from April 2013 to 27th November 2013. Momentummmm How long do want to go back, the longer you go back the longer it takes for momentum to be noticed, go and look at the indicators for the stock market, 200 day and 50 day to see this in action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 1.47%, within the margin of error, can be anything from a 1.63% reverse to a 3.47% gain. For proof of "momentum" we'd need to see something in several opinion pollsters between polls in excess of 3% (plus or minus margin of error). The long-term momentum, by that metric, is essentially zero, in some cases being only marginally positive or negative. This does not represent "momentum". I hope the NO camp have this plastered all over their HQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 1.47%, within the margin of error, can be anything from a 1.63% reverse to a 3.47% gain. For proof of "momentum" we'd need to see something in several opinion pollsters between polls in excess of 3% (plus or minus margin of error). The long-term momentum, by that metric, is essentially zero, in some cases being only marginally positive or negative. This does not represent "momentum". Precisely. It's bobbing along. This is pathetic stuff stampy. No matter how many tantrums you have, we can all see it, and so can you, if you cease being so dishonest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 What's undeniably the case is that 27% for Yes less 10 months before the referendum is an absolutely disasterous position to be in. This is like thinking your hand is the winner at poker b4 the other player has shown you theirs, fine if you got the nuts but a bit stupid to jump up and down if you haven't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 How long do want to go back, the longer you go back the longer it takes for momentum to be noticed, go and look at the indicators for the stock market, 200 day and 50 day to see this in action. Right. So why have Yes votes been like snow off a dyke since April of this year? Why is Yes much less popular with voters now than it was 7/8 months ago. After the much heralded White Paper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Right. So why have Yes votes been like snow off a dyke since April of this year? Why is Yes much less popular with voters now than it was 7/8 months ago. After the much heralded White Paper? Evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Evidence. TNS-BMRB had Yes at 30% on 02/04/13. TNS-BMRB now has Yes at 26% at 27/11/13. Why has there been such a reduction in Yes support since April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 You would think they would have brought this up on that newsnicht link. Once again, Ad Lib and HB are the world experts in, well, everything. They know better than the lawyers about law, better than the pollsters about polls, and indeed, neither has ever been wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 So for those of us who didn't see Newsnight, why has Yes lost 4% since April, after the White Paper has been launched? Why is Yes less popular now than it was 8 months ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 You really have got incredibly frantic over the last year. Over the last year, your law squad has been exposed as serial liars, terrible pundits, racists, and woefully ignorant about reality. If you believe that independence support is falling, then you are wrong and deluded. Do you believe that support for independence is falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 You really have got incredibly frantic over the last year. Over the last year, your law squad has been exposed as serial liars, terrible pundits, racists, and woefully ignorant about reality. If you believe that independence support is falling, then you are wrong and deluded. Do you believe that support for independence is falling? I believe support for Independence is static. Around 1 in 3. It's going nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 I believe support for Independence is static. Around 1 in 3. It's going nowhere. I thought it was falling like (and I quote) "Snow off a dyke"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 TNS-BMRB had Yes at 30% on 02/04/13. TNS-BMRB now has Yes at 26% at 27/11/13. Why has there been such a reduction in Yes support since April? Would you not be better judging their poll immediately b4 and after if you're looking for movement? If I go back long enough I'm quite sure I could find a poll that says support for independence has almost doubled. The problem you're going to have is when the only poll that counts returns an independent Scotland. Just so you don't get confused Yes gained .9% between those 2 polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 If I go back long enough I'm quite sure I could find a poll that says support for independence has almost doubled. Good luck finding me that one. Off you pop though - would love to see it. Please don't avoid the question though - why has support for Yes crumbled since April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Good luck finding me that one. Off you pop though - would love to see it. I'm sure SNP HQ will every poll going back to their inception. Please don't avoid the question though - why has support for Yes crumbled since April? The fact that they gained 0.9% between those 2 polls shows you're talking out of your arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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