Scottish Independence

[Ad Lib]

Utter drivel. am genuinely embarrassed for you.

As you can see there is more than one way to define a country in international law. The problem is which one do you use.

http://www.geography-site.co.uk/pages/countries/country_definition.html

You dont want to use any. Typical of you to twist and alter facts to suit your narrow agenda.

1. International law does not define "country".

2. You have referred us to something called "The Geography Site" which is a relevant authority or statement of international law in precisely zero ways.

3. Even insofar as this is an interesting source:

a) Montevideo Convention: defines what a "state as a person of international law" is.

b) Declarative Theory of Statehood: treats qualification for of the Montevideo Convention as being the actual sine qua non for statehood (capacity to enter into agreements with other states). Observe again the absence of relevance of "country".

c) Constitutive theory of statehood: The clue's in the name. It's not about countries; it's about statehood. It states that the fundamental question of statehood is mutual recognition by other states.

Notice that under the Montevideo Convention criteria, Scotland fails. It lacks "capacity to enter into relations with the other states". Scotland cannot, at this present moment, sign a treaty with Spain. It's not a sovereign state in international law. Observe this also discounts Scotland as falling under the declarative theory of statehood too.

Thirdly, notice that not one single state in the UN, or any states not in the UN like the Holy See, has recognised Scotland as a sovereign state. So it fails the constitutive theory of statehood too!

What we're left with is a website that (correctly) observes that the only respect in which Scotland has been recognised as a "country" is by the UK Government, under our domestic legal order (or what we might call, uh, the "British Constitution"). This has zero implications for international law.

[Ad Lib]

Absolutely. Perhaps one of the law squad could remind us all how many country celebrate "Independence Day", and how many celebrate "Secession Day"? Are the numbers similar? Because the law squad love numbers. Except for numbers that make independence look good.

What people celebrate or don't celebrate is immaterial here. It doesn't make the word "secession" incorrect to describe the effect of implementation of independence whether peacefully or by force of a territory from a sovereign state to realise the creation of more than one sovereign state.

[xbl]

What people celebrate or don't celebrate is immaterial here. It doesn't make the word "secession" incorrect to describe the effect of implementation of independence whether peacefully or by force of a territory from a sovereign state to realise the creation of more than one sovereign state.

So...no countries celebrate "Secession Day" then? Zero. f**k all.

[Ad Lib]

So...no countries celebrate "Secession Day" then? Zero. f**k all.

Could you please explain to me why what independent states celebrate and whether they call it "Independence Day" or "Secession Day" is in any way relevant to the question of whether "independence" is "secession" for the purposes of international law?

[Ad Lib]

Oh dear, desperate stuff. Lets face it, it followed exactly what myself and other independence supporters predicted. There is a clear movement from No, to Undecided, and then to Yes, without any equivalent movement the other way. The No side is losing people hand over fist, and we've seen they can't even put up people to speak in debates any more. The odds are being cut, the polls are closing in, and everything is progressing nicely. It must be tearing the Unionists apart.

Given the evidence I've posted here do you stand by this post, xbl?

Specifically, do you stand by the assertion that:

"There is a clear movement from No, to Undecided and then to Yes"

Given that:

Ipsos Mori says that Yes has gone down, No has gone up, and Undecideds have gone down (triple fail)

TNS only supports the gain in undecideds and shows a loss in BOTH camps (megafail on Yes gaining)

Panelbase shows a minuscule gain for Yes, a significant gain for No, and a marginal decline in undecideds (categorical double fail)

YouGov shows a clear gain for Yes, a commensurate loss for No and a slight reduction in undecideds (agreeing with the trajectory of your assessment but still showing a 19 point gap).

AngusReid shows a within margin of error shift from No to Yes and a within margin of error increase in undecideds (insufficient change to say with scientific methodological rigour that there has been any change whatsoever, and even then showing a 13 point gap).

Moreover, do you stand by your assertion, given the above that we are "without any equivalent movement the other way"? Do Ipsos Mori and Panelbase now not count?

Use facts or GTFO.

[wingsoverperthshire]

Given the evidence I've posted here do you stand by this post, xbl?

Specifically, do you stand by the assertion that:

"There is a clear movement from No, to Undecided and then to Yes"

Given that:

Ipsos Mori says that Yes has gone down, No has gone up, and Undecideds have gone down (triple fail)

TNS only supports the gain in undecideds and shows a loss in BOTH camps (megafail on Yes gaining)

Panelbase shows a minuscule gain for Yes, a significant gain for No, and a marginal decline in undecideds (categorical double fail)

YouGov shows a clear gain for Yes, a commensurate loss for No and a slight reduction in undecideds (agreeing with the trajectory of your assessment but still showing a 19 point gap).

AngusReid shows a within margin of error shift from No to Yes and a within margin of error increase in undecideds (insufficient change to say with scientific methodological rigour that there has been any change whatsoever, and even then showing a 13 point gap).

Moreover, do you stand by your assertion, given the above that we are "without any equivalent movement the other way"? Do Ipsos Mori and Panelbase now not count?

Use facts or GTFO.

Cherry picking selective polls doesn't provide any evidence whatsoever. Can you provide even 5 examples of registered voters that have moved from Yes to No ?

[Bitter Sweet Symphony]

Has Ad Lib done a Reynard yet and ended this charade of pretending to be a yes voter?

[xbl]

Specifically, do you stand by the assertion that:

"There is a clear movement from No, to Undecided and then to Yes"

Yes. See the relevant thread.

[wingsoverperthshire]

Nicked this from the TAMB and it's obviously a couple of days old.

[Ad Lib]

Cherry picking selective polls doesn't provide any evidence whatsoever. Can you provide even 5 examples of registered voters that have moved from Yes to No ?

I haven't "cherry picked selective polls". I have listed 5 polling companies and given an overview over as great a period as possible between the SNP winning the 2011 election and today, and looked to see if there is "momentum" of any sort within that period of time. The evidence suggests that there is no clear momentum in any direction over that period: Scotland is not measurably more inclined, based on the plethora of polling data available to us, to vote Yes to Scottish independence or less inclined to vote No, than it was between one and two years ago.

I cannot provide evidence of registered voters changing the way they are voting from Yes to No. I don't speak to many people about these issues. Among almost all of my peer group, I can think of only one other person who has changed their mind. But to draw conclusions based on that would be, uh, "cherry picking". The plural of anecdote is not data.

Yes. See the relevant thread.

Which relevant thread? I would like to see some evidence please. Raw numbers. Post them here.

1. Do you stand by the assertion that we are "without any equivalent movement the other way"?

2. Do Panelbase and Ipsos Mori count or do they not count?

3. Who is gospel on the polls this week?

4. Are you an idiot?

[I'm Brian]

This came up in conversation on Tuesday night. What happens if the unionists don't produce something?

Although the general consensus was that they will have something there for us

[xbl]

Which relevant thread?

Do you have eyes? Try scanning the list of topics on this page of the forum and taking an educated guess where "polls" could be discussed...

[strichener]

It's no surprise that you fail to understand secession. And haven't produced the whole quote.

Secession is - "the action of withdrawing formally from membership of a federation or body, especially a political state:" http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/secession

Indeed, in the link you provide, the heading is :- "Secession The act of withdrawing from membership in a group."

Your link reads like something a 5 year old might write. A 5 year old American at that.

The territory by the name of "Scotland" that would be removed from the territory of the United Kingdom in the event of a Yes vote for independence has no international legal continuity with the Scotland that extinguished itself (as a matter of international law) in 1707.

The word "membership" isn't actually necessary in the definition of secession and in the case of removal of territory from a unitary state is unhelpful, but even then, "membership" is construed as a matter of domestic law (i.e. the constitutional order), with international legal consequences. This is the opposite of the Union itself, which was a matter of international law, with domestic legal consequences (i.e. on the constitutional order).

Other definitions of "secession" do not rely upon a concept of membership rather than simply prior belonging.

So for instance here we have the Cambridge Dictionary definition, which simply says that to secede is "to become independent of a country or area of government"

Or the Chambers dictionary, which instead says that to secede is: "to withdraw formally, eg from a political or religious body or alliance"

Eh, I didn't provide the definition.

[Colkitto]

Polls by company looking as far back as I can find records for post the SNP election victory compared with their most recent poll.

Latest Ipsos Mori Poll (5th December 2013):

34/57/10

Ipsos Mori (January 2012):

39/50/11

Net loss in momentum for Yes and net gain for No.

TNS latest poll (27th November 2013):

26/42/32

TNS poll (February 2013)

33/52/15

Net losses for both campaigns and a huge net gain for undecideds.

Panelbase poll (20th November 2013)

38/47/15

Panelbase poll (February 2012)

37/42/21

Margin of error net gain for Yes, beyond margin of error net gain for No, net loss of undecideds.

YouGov poll (9th December 2013)

33/52/13/2

YouGov poll (October 2012)

29/55/14/2

Outside of margin of error gain for Yes (to a 19 point gap). No outside of error changes for Don't Knows and Won't Votes.

Angus Reid poll (16th August 2013)

34/47/17/2

Angus Reid poll (January 2013)

32/50/16/3

Within margin of error increase in Yes vote, on edge margin of error drop in the No vote, within margin of error fluctuation of Don't Knows/Won't Vote.

What does this tell us?

1. There is no obvious significant shift in either direction in the polls

2. Nor is there a significant shift to increase the Don't Know vote over the piece.

3. No remain consistently ahead.

4. The polls showing the biggest swing in favour of either Yes or Don't Know (i.e. away from No) are those which started out with the biggest gap

5. The polls showing the smallest gap between Yes and No have shifted the least and in some cases even (within the margin of error) in favour of the No campaign.

The narrative of momentum is bunk.

TNS No Vote from 52% in March

[wingsoverperthshire]

I haven't "cherry picked selective polls". I have listed 5 polling companies and given an overview over as great a period as possible between the SNP winning the 2011 election and today, and looked to see if there is "momentum" of any sort within that period of time.

You most certainly have cherry picked polls. The lack of credibility comes from selecting polls from a variety of start points and compared it to the latest (apart from ignoring the last TNS ) polls. Polls shifted away from Yes Scotland with the Olympic bounce and when Project Fear shot its load. There has been a clear and obvious trend away from No since the late summer and this will continue as this is exactly how the campaign was planned.

[Ad Lib]

Do you have eyes? Try scanning the list of topics on this page of the forum and taking an educated guess where "polls" could be discussed...

So just to be clear, it's the thread that talks about, most recently, the TNS polls. Where as I literally just pointed out both Yes and No have made significant losses and that the net momentum between them is almost static over the space of a year?

If and insofar as you can establish "momentum" in the TNS polls in favour of Yes, it is in respect of playing catch-up from their catastrofuck of a performance between February and August. Support in that poll for Scottish independence is still lower than it was 10 months ago. How is this something to be positive about?

And will you please answer questions 1-4?

1. Do you stand by the assertion that we are "without any equivalent movement the other way"?

2. Do Panelbase and Ipsos Mori count or do they not count?

3. Who is gospel on the polls this week?

4. Are you an idiot?

[Ad Lib]

Eh, I didn't provide the definition.

I didn't say you did. I explained why your riff on membership is irrelevant.

[strichener]

I didn't say you did. I explained why your riff on membership is irrelevant.

Scotland has no say on such matters, it is entirely within the powers of Westminster to "allow" Scotland to leave the Union.

I notice that your education at the best Scottish Law school has failed to allow you to answer the other part of my post that your sidekick has also ignored. Lord Glennie thread awaits your highly prized input.

[Ad Lib]

You most certainly have cherry picked polls. The lack of credibility comes from selecting polls from a variety of start points and compared it to the latest (apart from ignoring the last TNS ) polls. Polls shifted away from Yes Scotland with the Olympic bounce and when Project Fear shot its load. There has been a clear and obvious trend away from No since the late summer and this will continue as this is exactly how the campaign was planned.

The "variety of start points" relate to the earliest available point from 2012 in which the relevant company conducted a poll. As for TNS the December poll is within the margin of error of the November poll. It does not change the overall narrative of TNS in the last 10 months according to the data. Any "gains" between September and now for Yes are them playing catch-up from a significant drop in support from its typical polling base of 33-35%. Scottish independence being placed at 27% support of the population is piss poor and is not evidence of a mass swathe of momentum for a Yes vote come polling day.

There is absolutely no way that it was "planned" by the Yes campaign to have the support of barely a quarter of Scots less than nine months from polling day. Only someone suffering from total delusion could believe this.

TNS No Vote from 52% in March

But the Yes vote is massively down since then as well! TNS only justifies xbl's claim that there is a massive shift towards undecided. It does absolutely nothing to suggest that Yes are in any respect in a better place than they were a year or so ago.

[Colkitto]

The "variety of start points" relate to the earliest available point from 2012 in which the relevant company conducted a poll. As for TNS the December poll is within the margin of error of the November poll. It does not change the overall narrative of TNS in the last 10 months according to the data. Any "gains" between September and now for Yes are them playing catch-up from a significant drop in support from its typical polling base of 33-35%. Scottish independence being placed at 27% support of the population is piss poor and is not evidence of a mass swathe of momentum for a Yes vote come polling day.

There is absolutely no way that it was "planned" by the Yes campaign to have the support of barely a quarter of Scots less than nine months from polling day. Only someone suffering from total delusion could believe this.

But the Yes vote is massively down since then as well! TNS only justifies xbl's claim that there is a massive shift towards undecided. It does absolutely nothing to suggest that Yes are in any respect in a better place than they were a year or so ago.

Was the Yes vote in March not about 30%? That's hardly massively down is it?