Bitcoin/cryptocurrency thread

[SweeperDee]

some dodgy company called Better Help who exploit mentally ill people looking for affordable therapy and the gig economy 'therapists' who work for them. It eventually made me stop listening to it.

In what way are they “dodgy”? Every therapist on there is a licensed professional; you can request proof of this if you need the extra reassurance in your sessions with them. It’s a really valuable service, not too overpriced and considering the waiting times for NHS psychiatric consultations/therapy sessions, to call it dodgy just demonstrates how ignorant you are.

[strichener]

38 minutes ago, SweeperDee said:

 

In what way are they “dodgy”? Every therapist on there is a licensed professional; you can request proof of this if you need the extra reassurance in your sessions with them. It’s a really valuable service, not too overpriced and considering the waiting times for NHS psychiatric consultations/therapy sessions, to call it dodgy just demonstrates how ignorant you are.

 

^^^Works in the marcomms department for Better Help.

[Loonytoons]

Well obviously a golfer blowing up on a hole can’t be accounted for, but I didn’t say my research had a 100% strike rate. In a golf market you will have a favourite usually somewhere between 6/1 and 12/1, depending on the strength of the field, and the rank outsider could be 1000/1. If I was betting to level stakes and my research produced one single 50/1 winner a year I would be in profit. Then you take into account that I will be betting on multiple selections each week, some each way that can return a profit for finishing in the top 8. 
 
Most of my golf bets are made on an exchange that has an over round of roughly 100%, although you pay 2% commission on any winnings. A bookmakers over round for any given golf tournament will be anywhere between 120% and 160%. If my research produces even a slight edge over the market then it’s me that is winning over the long term. There is people who’s full time job is finding an edge and eeking out slight profits over a long timescale. It’s not as simple as just saying ‘the bookies always win’. 
 
 

That's matched betting you're talking about, not gambling. Using the market against itself for the +ve EV.
If you go for the +ve EV you're taking the edge away from the bookies in the long term.
The large sums to be made from that are long gone.

[IrishBhoy]

33 minutes ago, Loonytoons said:

 

 

That's matched betting you're talking about, not gambling. Using the market against itself for the +ve EV.
If you go for the +ve EV you're taking the edge away from the bookies in the long term.
The large sums to be made from that are long gone.

 

No it’s not  matched betting is finding discrepancies between prices on the exchange and the bookmaker to lock in a profit. I’m well aware of what matched betting is, I was doing it 15 odd years ago. 
 

Im straight backing golfers on the exchange, on a book that has an over round close to 100%. I will usually pick 3 or 4 golfers that I am backing to win only. I will then use Bet365 if I’m going to pick any golfers at higher odds that I will back each way, usually alongside a small back bet on the exchange that I will hedge if their lay price falls dramatically below my initial back price.
 

I will be constantly monitoring the market through out the tournament looking for situations to arise where I can back and lay the same golfer to lock in a profit and then hedge the bet across the field. If you do a bit of research into the course, the layout of where the easier holes are and when they come up during the round, you can find opportunities to quickly back a player before they are about to play an ‘easier’ stretch of holes, and if they birdie one or more of the holes then usually you will be presented with an opportunity to lay the same golfer and hedge the bet across the field. Rinse and repeat to slowly build a green book, and if one of my pre tournament picks win then even better. 
 

 

Edited June 17, 2022 by IrishBhoy

[Loonytoons]

No it’s not [emoji38] matched betting is finding discrepancies between prices on the exchange and the bookmaker to lock in a profit. I’m well aware of what matched betting is, I was doing it 15 odd years ago. 
 
Im straight backing golfers on the exchange, on a book that has an over round close to 100%. I will usually pick 3 or 4 golfers that I am backing to win only. I will then use Bet365 if I’m going to pick any golfers at higher odds that I will back each way, usually alongside a small back bet on the exchange that I will hedge if their lay price falls dramatically below my initial back price.
 
I will be constantly monitoring the market through out the tournament looking for situations to arise where I can back and lay the same golfer to lock in a profit and then hedge the bet across the field. If you do a bit of research into the course, the layout of where the easier holes are and when they come up during the round, you can find opportunities to quickly back a player before they are about to play an ‘easier’ stretch of holes, and if they birdie one or more of the holes then usually you will be presented with an opportunity to lay the same golfer and hedge the bet across the field. Rinse and repeat to slowly build a green book, and if one of my pre tournament picks win then even better. 
 
 

So basically looking for the +ve EV on the exchange versus the bookmaker.
A branch of matched betting.

[IrishBhoy]

2 minutes ago, Loonytoons said:

 

 

So basically looking for the +ve EV on the exchange versus the bookmaker.
A branch of matched betting.

 

No I’m only using the bookmaker to place each way bets because the exchange is win only. It’s not a branch of matched betting in the slightest. If you want to try and label it anything then it’s sports trading; buying (backing) a player at a certain price and selling (laying) when the lay price falls below my initial back price. It’s quite a simple concept that has nothing to do with matched betting. 

[Loonytoons]

No [emoji1751] I’m only using the bookmaker to place each way bets because the exchange is win only. It’s not a branch of matched betting in the slightest. If you want to try and label it anything then it’s sports trading; buying (backing) a player at a certain price and selling (laying) when the lay price falls below my initial back price. It’s quite a simple concept that has nothing to do with matched betting. 

Ah, apologies. Typical misreading of a post.

[Satoshi]

14 hours ago, beefybake said:

Meanwhile, away from your La La Land......

As of last night...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/17/asia-markets-plunge-again-as-flurry-of-interest-rate-hikes-fuels-recession-fears

"...The cryptocurrency rout also shows no sign of abating with bitcoin down 7.8% and ethereum 8.45% worse off. In addition, the Financial Times reported that the Singapore-based crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital – which has $10bn under management – failed to meet margin calls this week amid the slide in crypto values.".

Really? Which part is inaccurate?

As much people would like to believe investors (in crypto or the stock matter) are panicking and tearing their hair out for most people this isn't the case, if you're a long term investor this will happen (and, indeed, happen repeatedly). 

It's nothing to particularly worry about, those with equity in either have made incredible bank since the financial crash, the next 10 years were never going to be as good as the last 10.

And despite not being as good for equity investors, it's probably good for society as a whole. There's a direct correlation between equity rises and increasing inequality - almost no poor person has equity (I think it's less than 15% of the world as a whole) every rich person will have lots of it.

It will bounce back of course, both crypto and the stock market. Probably haven't hit bottom yet in either but if you're investing for 10+ years this is a minor blip that will be forgotten about soon enough.

Plenty of time to make some fun graphs in the meantime.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

10 hours ago, IrishBhoy said:

Well obviously a golfer blowing up on a hole can’t be accounted for, but I didn’t say my research had a 100% strike rate. In a golf market you will have a favourite usually somewhere between 6/1 and 12/1, depending on the strength of the field, and the rank outsider could be 1000/1. If I was betting to level stakes and my research produced one single 50/1 winner a year I would be in profit. Then you take into account that I will be betting on multiple selections each week, some each way that can return a profit for finishing in the top 8. 
 

Most of my golf bets are made on an exchange that has an over round of roughly 100%, although you pay 2% commission on any winnings. A bookmakers over round for any given golf tournament will be anywhere between 120% and 160%. If my research produces even a slight edge over the market then it’s me that is winning over the long term. There is people who’s full time job is finding an edge and eeking out slight profits over a long timescale. It’s not as simple as just saying ‘the bookies always win’. 

You’re getting better value but nonetheless  a “slight” edge over your fellow amateurs might not be enough if you're up against  professionals

Be careful out there

 

[DiegoDiego]

NFTs are ruining the art heist. Someone once stole Edvard Munich’s The Scream using the Olympic opening ceremony as cover and leaving a funny note for police (“thanks for the bad security”). Now I can rob priceless artwork by right clicking on them. Where’s the fun in that?

Come on Chris, you're far better than the right click save chat.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

Come on Chris, you're far better than the right click save chat.

I thought there was just enough truth for the joke to work

[Zetterlund]

Another -10% flash crash this morning. It seems like big crypto funds are being liquidated after frankly suicidal risk-taking.

Depositing volatile cryptos like BTC or ETH as collateral for USD-denominated loans is madness, but these companies have been routinely doing it in the hundreds of millions. You only need a 25% drop in the price, which happens regularly, to get wiped out. Crazy.

[Lex]

How low is it going to go? The price point relies on new marks putting fresh money into it - like any pyramid scheme.
In the recessionary high interest rate environment the world is heading into, there’s not going to be the glut of cash floating around like there has been over the last five years. This is not like a stock market dip, where the value is in actual trading companies. This is just confidence tricksters, smoke and mirrors.

[vikingTON]

1 minute ago, Zetterlund said:

Another -10% flash crash this morning. It seems like big crypto funds are being liquidated after frankly suicidal risk-taking.

A tragedy that mustn't be the source of schadenfreude on here. 

Spoiler

 

[topcat(The most tip top)]

How low is it going to go? The price point relies on new marks putting fresh money into it - like any pyramid scheme.
In the recessionary high interest rate environment the world is heading into, there’s not going to be the glut of cash floating around like there has been over the last five years. This is not like a stock market dip, where the value is in actual trading companies. This is just confidence tricksters, smoke and mirrors.

It appears that there was a state of collective denial along the lines of “surely it’s not going to go below 20K” that propped the price up for a week

There was a previous similar plateau where it hovered around 30k for a month

It’s as if the market has little idea what the actual value is but is convinced it should be a nice round number

[Detournement]

57 minutes ago, Zetterlund said:

Another -10% flash crash this morning. It seems like big crypto funds are being liquidated after frankly suicidal risk-taking.

Depositing volatile cryptos like BTC or ETH as collateral for USD-denominated loans is madness, but these companies have been routinely doing it in the hundreds of millions. You only need a 25% drop in the price, which happens regularly, to get wiped out. Crazy.

They haven't taken any risks though.

All the Fiat is safely in old school banks while the monopoly money goes bankrupt. The scam was always going to end.

[Zetterlund]

21 minutes ago, Detournement said:

They haven't taken any risks though.

All the Fiat is safely in old school banks while the monopoly money goes bankrupt. The scam was always going to end.

They're obviously risking their loan collateral, in the case of 3AC apparently $245m worth of ETH which has gone up in smoke.

The extra-stupid thing about crypto loans is that liquidations cause sharp price drops, which immediately puts others underwater and leads to cascading liquidations. 

[welshbairn]

Tether seems to be holding up pretty well so far, according to this if it falters it's goodbye Vienna.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/17/technology/tether-stablecoin-cryptocurrency.html

[iron mike python]

On 15/06/2022 at 22:56, Detournement said:

This is an Airdrop.

Since you posted about them RADAR has lost about 85% of it's value and SOS has very impressively lost 99.9999% and there was never a point where you could have cashed out for a profit.

But you were on here hoping to encourage people to buy this shite because you are a mug locked into multi level marketing scams.

 

 

I never encouraged anyone to buy an airdrop

The thing about airdrops is they just appear in your wallet if you have used a service. That is why I was telling people.

If those people received the airdrops they were eligible to sell to USD straight away. Which is what I did, and by the looks of the price action everyone else did too. 

Let me say unequivocally airdrops are a terrible idea to buy.... but if you RECEIVED an airdrop then why wouldn't you sell it?

 

[Detournement]

21 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Tether seems to be holding up pretty well so far, according to this if it falters it's goodbye Vienna.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/17/technology/tether-stablecoin-cryptocurrency.html

The genius thing about Tether is only big players can redeem it.

And the big players have already factored in it's a scam and their profits are dependent on it not collapsing. So instead of a run you have an orderly draw down.