Bitcoin/cryptocurrency thread

[DeeTillEhDeh]

There you go

Ta.

[DiegoDiego]

The Dutch tulip bubble is pretty common knowledge, it's been taught for decades.

I'm not sure really what cryptocurrency has in common with it though and it's worth noting that flowers remain a significant part of the Dutch economy. Istanbul alone plants 25 million tulips a year.

Crypto seems to have more in common with railways than tulips. Rail stocks were extremely high growth in the early days and were accused of being a scam or a bubble. Of course that turned out not to be the case and they helped make people like John Rockefeller and Warren Buffet the richest men in the world.

[iron mike python]

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-tulip-fever-180964915/

 

"There was never really a Tulip Mania" by the Smithsonian. Its just a story that people use this day to be angry about crypto, instead of buying or having fun.

[Fraser Fyvie]

Aped in to Merit Circle $MC, a DAO for play-to-earn games, on the thesis that gaming/metaverse is going to be the next big narrative play.

[Kapowzer]

4 hours ago, DiegoDiego said:

The Dutch tulip bubble is pretty common knowledge, it's been taught for decades.

I'm not sure really what cryptocurrency has in common with it though and it's worth noting that flowers remain a significant part of the Dutch economy. Istanbul alone plants 25 million tulips a year.

Crypto seems to have more in common with railways than tulips. Rail stocks were extremely high growth in the early days and were accused of being a scam or a bubble. Of course that turned out not to be the case and they helped make people like John Rockefeller and Warren Buffet the richest men in the world.

You'll also note I compared it to NFT's and was careful to distinguish that

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

5 hours ago, iron mike python said:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-tulip-fever-180964915/

 

"There was never really a Tulip Mania" by the Smithsonian. Its just a story that people use this day to be angry about crypto, instead of buying or having fun.

Do you ever bother to read beyond the headlines of the things you post on here that you claim support your argument, or do you just hope that no one else will? 

Even within this non academic piece it only argues that it did not exist in that

the trade didn’t affect all levels of society, and it didn’t cause the collapse of industry in Amsterdam and elsewhere

And admits that 

merchants really did engage in a frantic tulip trade, and they paid incredibly high prices for some bulbs. And when a number of buyers announced they couldn’t pay the high price previously agreed upon, the market did fall apart and cause a small crisis

Magazines like this are very prone to writing highly caveated and historically valueless pieces such as "the REAL truth about" or "why (commonly held historical belief) didn't happen" (usually meaning didn't happen in quite the same way that is most commonly understood, as is the case here). 

Agree with @DiegoDiego that it is incredibly well known history though so anyone pulling it out as if it's never been seen before is a bit silly 

Edited November 5, 2021 by Genuine Hibs Fan

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The Dutch tulip bubble is pretty common knowledge, it's been taught for decades.

I'm not sure really what cryptocurrency has in common with it though and it's worth noting that flowers remain a significant part of the Dutch economy. Istanbul alone plants 25 million tulips a year.

Crypto seems to have more in common with railways than tulips. Rail stocks were extremely high growth in the early days and were accused of being a scam or a bubble. Of course that turned out not to be the case and they helped make people like John Rockefeller and Warren Buffet the richest men in the world.

It's relevant because it is about the over-valuing any commodity - beit tulips, dotcom stock, property or cryptocurrency.

[Detournement]

The newly elected NYC Mayor doing a BTC pump. 

Incredible. 

[iron mike python]

Just now, DeeTillEhDeh said:

6 hours ago, DiegoDiego said:

The Dutch tulip bubble is pretty common knowledge, it's been taught for decades.

I'm not sure really what cryptocurrency has in common with it though and it's worth noting that flowers remain a significant part of the Dutch economy. Istanbul alone plants 25 million tulips a year.

Crypto seems to have more in common with railways than tulips. Rail stocks were extremely high growth in the early days and were accused of being a scam or a bubble. Of course that turned out not to be the case and they helped make people like John Rockefeller and Warren Buffet the richest men in the world.

It's relevant because it is about the over-valuing any commodity - beit tulips, property or cryptocurrency.

What value is cryptocurrency worth? We will use Bitcoin as an example.

 

3 minutes ago, Detournement said:

The newly elected NYC Mayor doing a BTC pump. 

Incredible. 

Yep, really good news for USA. Once New York gets rid of the Bit License the regulatory environment is looking really promising there. UK is looking likely to fall behind in an exciting industry because it is filled with people with no foresight. Hopefully the UK can have fun whilst staying poor.

[welshbairn]

6 hours ago, DiegoDiego said:

Crypto seems to have more in common with railways than tulips. Rail stocks were extremely high growth in the early days and were accused of being a scam or a bubble. Of course that turned out not to be the case and they helped make people like John Rockefeller and Warren Buffet the richest men in the world.

Warren Buffet has also said he doesn't invest in anything he doesn't understand what the valuation is based on. Crypto fans talk about faster deal making for hardcore traders, but I'm not convinced traditional networks couldn't compete with a bit of adaptation, and there seems to be a fair bit of friction for ordinary punters trying to quickly sell their coins. At the moment it seems like pure speculation plus a maniacal burning of fossil fuels, which doesn't seem to fit the zeitgeist. Good on you all if you make a profit, but I really think this thread should be punted back to the gambling forum where it belongs, along with the Matched Betting thread that died a death once punters had used up their joining offers with the bookies.

Edited November 5, 2021 by welshbairn

[Fraser Fyvie]

I would be way poorer if I listened to the "don't invest in what you don't understand" type stuff. Awful advice.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Someone seems to have forgotten the cryptocurrency crash of 2018 or the flash crashes this year in April, September and this week.

I personally wouldn't touch it with a bargepole - not because it's intangible but because of the volatility in prices. Holding might be the right response during these minicrashes but at some point there is the real risk that there won't be a bounce back.

PS I bet a few folk absolutely shat it when Binance fucked up!!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news.com.au/finance/markets/bitcoin-crashes-87-in-under-a-minute-in-terrifying-moment-for-coinholders/news-story/4065f264407a49500dd4de9f911800e5%3famp

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Fraser Fyvie said:

I would be way poorer if I listened to the "don't invest in what you don't understand" type stuff. Awful advice.

A wee lesson on what determines the valuation would be handy for us fools.

[DiegoDiego]

plus a maniacal burning of fossil fuels

Bitcoin uses less energy than YouTube, yet somehow Google manage to avoid the wrath of "environmentalist" politicians and commentators.

[Fraser Fyvie]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

A wee lesson on what determines the valuation would be handy for us fools.

I don't care what crypto's "valuation" is. This isn't stonks.

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Bitcoin uses less energy than YouTube, yet somehow Google manage to avoid the wrath of "environmentalist" politicians and commentators.

How many people use Youtube compared to Bitcoin though? BTW Railways are a terrible example, nearly every investor lost their money when the builders went bankrupt, it was the people who bought them up for pennies afterwards who cashed in. Crypto looks like going the opposite way, but we shall see.

Edited November 5, 2021 by welshbairn

[gaz5]

Someone seems to have forgotten the cryptocurrency crash of 2018 or the flash crashes this year in April, September and this week.

I personally wouldn't touch it with a bargepole - not because it's intangible but because of the volatility in prices. Holding might be the right response during these minicrashes but at some point there is the real risk that there won't be a bounce back.

PS I bet a few folk absolutely shat it when Binance fucked up!!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news.com.au/finance/markets/bitcoin-crashes-87-in-under-a-minute-in-terrifying-moment-for-coinholders/news-story/4065f264407a49500dd4de9f911800e5%3famp

In fairness, everyone involved in Crypto knows that's how the cycle works. It's a 4 year cycle based around the halvings with a large mid cycle correction among the other corrections.

It's a bubble that inflates and pops once every 4 years. If you're in the market and you don't know that, then you're not paying attention.

I get that people on the outside are scared by that, but no one paying attention in this market isn't expecting an 80% - 85% BTC dump between December and April the will bring the Alts down 90-95% with it.

That's how the cycle works and why you don't hold through it the same way you do with traditional stocks.

I know there are idiots on YouTube claiming "this time will be different". But anyone invested in any market knows, or at least should, that those are the 5 most dangerous words in investing and the people who come to believe that are usually the ones buying from those who don't at the top.

The volitility in crypto isn't a problem, it's a gift.

[DiegoDiego]

How many people use Youtube compared to Bitcoin though?

I'm not sure user numbers are that relevant. Boeing have orders of magnitude fewer customers than Sevco.
Bitcoin's more valuable than the entire Alphabet company, let alone YouTube.

Anyway, the point is, that people love to use energy consumption as a stick to beat crypto (even when most blockchains use very little energy) while eschewing broadcast TV for Netflix and conducting other contradictory behaviour.

[Detournement]

Surely the difference this time is that the amount of fraudulent unbacked stable coins has went from around $1 billion in 2018 to $100 billion now. Any event which leads to a substantial sell off will cause Tether and probably multiple exchanges to go under.

 

[gaz5]

I'm not sure user numbers are that relevant. Boeing have orders of magnitude fewer customers than Sevco.
Bitcoin's more valuable than the entire Alphabet company, let alone YouTube.

Anyway, the point is, that people love to use energy consumption as a stick to beat crypto (even when most blockchains use very little energy) while eschewing broadcast TV for Netflix and conducting other contradictory behaviour.

To be fair, I don't like the BTC maxis who argue the BTC energy consumption point either. Would be better if they just said "yes, proof of work is a hugely inefficient protocol from an energy consumption perspective and we need to look at ways to make that greener"

What annoys me more though is your second point about energy consumption being a stick used to beat all of crypto with by people who don't understand the difference between proof of work and proof of stake consensus mechanisms or that the vast majority of projects fall into our area moving towards proof of stake and as a result don't suffer from that energy consumption problem.

It's like selectively ignoring the advances in electric and hybrid cars and tarring the whole automotive industry with the fossil fuel brush.