Bitcoin/cryptocurrency thread

[Satoshi]

4 hours ago, welshbairn said:

That's one of the things I don't get, somebody told me that blockchain would put traditional exchanges like Swift out of business because it was so much faster. From what I hear it's painfully slow unless you pay a huge transaction fee. Not being able to trade quickly is a huge negative for me.

Don't know how you gleaned that from my post, purchasing crypto was virtually instant (on Kraken for various annoying reasons), it's my share / etf purchase with a big UK bank that is taking a very long time. Which tbf isn't actually a very big deal for me.

Also not being able to trade quickly isn't necessarily a bad thing, most high volume traders lose big - something I don't do and never have done.

I don't doubt that the ETH I bought yesterday will be available for cheaper in future (and more expensive) but buying after a big dip for me maximises the chances of an upside (still following DCA principles). 

[Fraser Fyvie]

When something seems certain in these markets, usually the opposite will happen. Can’t go too wrong DCA’ing at -50% from highs IMO.

[gaz5]

When something seems certain in these markets, usually the opposite will happen. Can’t go too wrong DCA’ing at -50% from highs IMO.

Depends on your risk tolerance/risk management strategies.

If you don't use stops, that approach probably works better than if you do. [emoji846]

[jamamafegan]

Made a small profit from the recent LUNA pump and I’m feeling chuffed. Dipping my toe a wee bit deeper into crypto now, trying to get involved in Cosmos so downloaded a Keplr wallet. I want to get involved in airdrops but still don’t know how it all really works. Do you have to stake coins to qualify for airdrops?

[iron mike python]

1 hour ago, jamamafegan said:

Made a small profit from the recent LUNA pump and I’m feeling chuffed. Dipping my toe a wee bit deeper into crypto now, trying to get involved in Cosmos so downloaded a Keplr wallet. I want to get involved in airdrops but still don’t know how it all really works. Do you have to stake coins to qualify for airdrops?

There are loads of different ways of getting airdrops.  Staking is maybe one way but using lots of defi services is another way if you predict that there will be a token in future.

One example was the other day when Ukraines official Twitter posted crypto addresses allowing donations - They received a few million dollars (which was good)

Then they said there would be a snapshot taken yesterday and all addresses which had sent crypto would receive an airdrop of some form- This was genius because people got FOMO and 10s of Millions of dollars got donated. 

Today Ukraine said it wont be a fungible token distribution. It will probably just be an NFT (think badge of honour) but it has left lots of people disappointed. 

If Ukraine survives that NFT could get you discounts on holidays there in future or some stupid think like that.

Basically Airdrops are a unique way of marketing. It could pay off to hold the tokens if people see value in the service they are offering in future.

 

[Lou Brusch]

Not trying to shill it, just curious: is anyone on here hooked up on the Helium network, or in on HNT?

[Zetterlund]

16 hours ago, Lou Brusch said:

Not trying to shill it, just curious: is anyone on here hooked up on the Helium network, or in on HNT?

I looked into this a couple of months ago but decided it wasn't worth the risk. The returns you get seem dependent on how many other miners are in your local area, and how the signals overlap etc, and there are very few near me according to their map. It would have been a total guess how much I would have made from it.

[Kejan]

I just got in to crypto last month. Had a friend who would talk occasionally or sent me links now and again, as I had always shown an interest in it, but never really bothered to learn more than the very basics or felt the need to start, but for some reason I must have woke up on the right/wrong side of bed and bought £20 of ADA - already off to a loss!

Not exactly tech savvy, not a gamer plus at the edge of boomer in age, so its a bit of process for my two digit IQ to learn this all, but slowly slowly starting to understand more and more. Not sure what exactly any long term strategy is probably DCA/hold long term - AVAX, ALGO, ADA, DOT. Have STX, MANA and GALA but no idea how long yet.

Probably got (holding, isn't it?) too many as a novice, but enjoying the ride so far. I know its a bit of a cliche, but the wild west of it all just adds to it. I've seen ADA go from what I thought was a bargain at $1.09 to 79c, and now what feels like great times at 85c! Bought £10 of ALGO at £1.01, but rather than despair at 70c, just bought a shit load more of it.

Does anyone here not hold BTC? I am looking to get some as hopefully a bit of a 'security' but in these four weeks, I've been waiting for under 30k. Some have said not holding BTC is legit and it's clunky etc ; others have said everyone should have some BTC or ETH.

Anyone recommend a good book, or podcast? Suitable for a knucklehead who learns drip by drip? There is some interesting stuff on YouTube but an awfae lot of shills and just general YouTuber shite too!

Edited March 17, 2022 by Kejan

[welshbairn]

Long piece by a director of the ECB on the dangers of crypto to investors and the wider economy.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2022/html/ecb.sp220425~6436006db0.en.html

[Satoshi]

Hardly shocking for central bankers to be anti crypto.

And I think there is a very strong possibility said central bankers hold crypto.

[iron mike python]

On 29/04/2022 at 08:57, tatipap said:

I've been following nft games lately, I really like their progress on the crypto market

What do you like about them? All I know is people that have lost money through them. 

[Satoshi]

Was a fantastic time to buy a few hours ago (sadly I was unable to at the time) but still fairly good now.

This very much applies to the stock market as well.

Got to love a bit of a dip.

It may well keep crashing but if you've got good fiat reserves (or regular income) that just leaves more cheap buying opportunities.

I'll caveat this by saying I am comfortably down 10s of thousands £ from the peak (and bigger drop in crypto Vs stock market).

There will be new peaks for both, so a great time to load up.

[welshbairn]

[gaz5]

Was a fantastic time to buy a few hours ago (sadly I was unable to at the time) but still fairly good now.
This very much applies to the stock market as well.
Got to love a bit of a dip.
It may well keep crashing but if you've got good fiat reserves (or regular income) that just leaves more cheap buying opportunities.
I'll caveat this by saying I am comfortably down 10s of thousands £ from the peak (and bigger drop in crypto Vs stock market).
There will be new peaks for both, so a great time to load up.

Why was it a "fantastic time to buy" and for what outlook?

This sort of message does crypto no more good than it does the stock market. It's the same "buy the dip", "Diamond Hands", "HODL" madness you see on Twitter every day.

If you're talking short term trading buy, with a view to selling quickly. Indeed, it was [emoji6]

If you're talking long term buy: you're about 8k and potentially 4-5 months early IMO (and certainly far too early to be calling a bottom).

I caught a long, that I'm now out of with profit. I'm waiting for the retest for another quick in and out and I have the first of 5 shorts planned at the long target then more all the way up to 39k, the last of those being a large short targeting 21.9.

[Satoshi]

6 hours ago, gaz5 said:

Why was it a "fantastic time to buy" and for what outlook?

This sort of message does crypto no more good than it does the stock market. It's the same "buy the dip", "Diamond Hands", "HODL" madness you see on Twitter every day.

If you're talking short term trading buy, with a view to selling quickly. Indeed, it was

If you're talking long term buy: you're about 8k and potentially 4-5 months early IMO (and certainly far too early to be calling a bottom).

I caught a long, that I'm now out of with profit. I'm waiting for the retest for another quick in and out and I have the first of 5 shorts planned at the long target then more all the way up to 39k, the last of those being a large short targeting 21.9.

It's a fantastic time to buy for two reasons:

1) It just had a fairly big dip

2) The price will almost certainly be higher in the future

Your plan, presumably resting on technical analysis, is to wait until it hits the bottom (or close) and buy, and then maybe sell at the top. Which is an excellent strategy, and the first person to do it consistently will quickly become the richest, most famous person of all time.

If you hold a lot of cash your options are fairly limited. Inflation is taking a big chunk out of cash reserves and the stock market and crypto is plunging - there's very few safe places to put money now. So, naturally, I have it in all three and I'm moving from my cash reserve into crypto and the stock market.

Will both go lower than today? Almost certainly. Will they go higher? Also, almost certainly. So refer back to my first two conditions above, when there's a big dip it's a good time to buy. And if you want to wait for a bigger dip, fair enough, it's a strategy that will work sometimes and fail sometimes.

If I was a US citizen I'd be all over the Treasury I-Bonds of course what a deal, but even that's $10-$15k per person.

I don't think there is anything wrong with suggesting buying now, nor is there anything wrong with pointing to a chart and predicting what will happen in future. Do what's right for you.

And, of course, sell your house and plow it into Floki. It's time. 

[gaz5]

It's a fantastic time to buy for two reasons:
1) It just had a fairly big dip
2) The price will almost certainly be higher in the future
Your plan, presumably resting on technical analysis, is to wait until it hits the bottom (or close) and buy, and then maybe sell at the top. Which is an excellent strategy, and the first person to do it consistently will quickly become the richest, most famous person of all time.
If you hold a lot of cash your options are fairly limited. Inflation is taking a big chunk out of cash reserves and the stock market and crypto is plunging - there's very few safe places to put money now. So, naturally, I have it in all three and I'm moving from my cash reserve into crypto and the stock market.
Will both go lower than today? Almost certainly. Will they go higher? Also, almost certainly. So refer back to my first two conditions above, when there's a big dip it's a good time to buy. And if you want to wait for a bigger dip, fair enough, it's a strategy that will work sometimes and fail sometimes.
If I was a US citizen I'd be all over the Treasury I-Bonds of course what a deal, but even that's $10-$15k per person.
I don't think there is anything wrong with suggesting buying now, nor is there anything wrong with pointing to a chart and predicting what will happen in future. Do what's right for you.
And, of course, sell your house and plow it into Floki. It's time. 

Sorry, but just no.

"Buy the dip" for every dip is a stupid method of trying to make money on any market, not just Crypto, especially if you are buying that dip with new capital and not from profits from selling previously.

I could maybe forgive you "buy the dip" blindly in an uptrend as a reasonable DCA strategy for someone who doesn't want to trade or pay any attention. But buying the dip in a downtrend is just providing exit liquidity for someone else.

No, my strategy is not to buy the bottom and sell the top, because that's also a silly, all eggs one basket strategy and hugely unlikely to pay off over time. The opportunity cost alone, even if it did fortunately make money, doesn't work for me, especially if having to ride a 50% loss before making that 50% profit.

Might this end up being the bottom, from a macro perspective? Potentially, but unlikely IMO as there's been no capitulation at all as yet.

But even if it were, if your upside targets are 100k over time, or even a return to ATH, why wouldn't you wait for confirmed reversal for a macro trade (around 44k) and pay the premium if that happens, rather than buy now and risk another 30% drop to the actual bottom?

It makes zero sense.

Buy here and risk riding a 6 month -30% asset, or wait to potentially buy 30% more when it does bottom, or get in when the reversal is confirmed and it's in an uptrend.

We can agree to disagree, obviously, but I see no long term buy signal here at all. Short term trades only.

[Satoshi]

11 hours ago, gaz5 said:

Sorry, but just no.

"Buy the dip" for every dip is a stupid method of trying to make money on any market, not just Crypto, especially if you are buying that dip with new capital and not from profits from selling previously.

I could maybe forgive you "buy the dip" blindly in an uptrend as a reasonable DCA strategy for someone who doesn't want to trade or pay any attention. But buying the dip in a downtrend is just providing exit liquidity for someone else.

No, my strategy is not to buy the bottom and sell the top, because that's also a silly, all eggs one basket strategy and hugely unlikely to pay off over time. The opportunity cost alone, even if it did fortunately make money, doesn't work for me, especially if having to ride a 50% loss before making that 50% profit.

Might this end up being the bottom, from a macro perspective? Potentially, but unlikely IMO as there's been no capitulation at all as yet.

But even if it were, if your upside targets are 100k over time, or even a return to ATH, why wouldn't you wait for confirmed reversal for a macro trade (around 44k) and pay the premium if that happens, rather than buy now and risk another 30% drop to the actual bottom?

It makes zero sense.

Buy here and risk riding a 6 month -30% asset, or wait to potentially buy 30% more when it does bottom, or get in when the reversal is confirmed and it's in an uptrend.

We can agree to disagree, obviously, but I see no long term buy signal here at all. Short term trades only.

 

It sounds like your recommendation is why not become an excellent trader*, but most people (and certainly myself) have neither the knowledge nor inclination to become a trader. Most who do have the knowledge (or perceived knowledge) and inclination still lose, often heavily.

My strategy is to accept my limitiations, spread my risk through crypto, the stock market and cash reserves (ideally a 10-80-10 split). My cash reserve has been a bit high recently and it was perfect timing to buy the dip. It's a strategy that has worked brilliantly in the last few years (no skill involved, just a good market), and I'm under no illusion it would have gone far less well if I thought I could beat the market through trading. 

Does buying now when there's going to be a 30% drop in future make zero sense? Yes, it does, but if I or you knew it would drop 30% we could easily make a ton out of that alone. But you don't, and neither do I. My mindset is it will both go higher and lower in future, and because I'm in no rush to sell, it only has to go higher eventually for me. 

Oh and also, keeping 15% of my portfolio in cash is mental (especially when I get paid monthly and save a big chunk of that), where should it go in the current market in your view? 

*Or maybe follow the recommendations of people claiming to be excellent traders? 

Edited May 11, 2022 by Satoshi

[gaz5]

It sounds like your recommendation is why not become an excellent trader*, but most people (and certainly myself) have neither the knowledge nor inclination to become a trader. Most who do have the knowledge (or perceived knowledge) and inclination still lose, often heavily.
My strategy is to accept my limitiations, spread my risk through crypto, the stock market and cash reserves (ideally a 10-80-10 split). My cash reserve has been a bit high recently and it was perfect timing to buy the dip. It's a strategy that has worked brilliantly in the last few years (no skill involved, just a good market), and I'm under no illusion it would have gone far less well if I thought I could beat the market through trading. 
Does buying now when there's going to be a 30% drop in future make zero sense? Yes, it does, but if I or you knew it would drop 30% we could easily make a ton out of that alone. But you don't, and neither do I. My mindset is it will both go higher and lower in future, and because I'm in no rush to sell, it only has to go higher eventually for me. 
Oh and also, keeping 15% of my portfolio in cash is mental (especially when I get paid monthly and save a big chunk of that), where should it go in the current market in your view? 
*Or maybe follow the recommendations of people claiming to be excellent traders? 

If it sounds like that's my recommendation, you didn't read the post properly.

The trading references were a response to your (incorrect) assumption about my plans. I don't plan to buy bottoms and sell tops as you initially assumed, I explained that.

Trading is not for everyone and there's no such thing as an expert trader in retail. Certainly not me and I've never claimed to be an expert. It can be profitable but takes time and effort, like most things.

But no, my recommendation is not to listen to anyone telling you to buy the dip in a downtrend (in any market), because, you know, the probability in a downtrend is what? Up, or more down.

No one needs to know the future, in fact that's one of the biggest misunderstandings around what analysing data is about. It's not about identifying what will happen, it's about identifying what's more likely to happen.

Your buy the dip in a downtrend strategy for people would have bought 58k, 52k, 48k, 43k, 35k and now 30k. All of those bar 1 (currently) are underwater, by as much as 48% and your DCA cost basis also massively underwater, by far more than it would be holding cash.

Unless of course you only recommend buying this dip. In which case how did you come to that conclusion without looking at a chart and are you trying to pick bottoms?

Buying dips in an uptrend, as I said, is a decent DCA strategy. That's why it worked for you over the last two years of massive uptrend.

Buying dips in a downtrend is not. It's daft. Especially if you're worried about the value of your cash as you claim to be.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with sitting in cash when the risk of loss from buying assets is higher than the risk of inflationary loss from sitting in cash for a period. Nothing at all.

“There is time to go long, time to go short and time to go fishing.”

— Jesse Lauriston Livermore

But you do you, my intention isn't to convince you to change your mind, I know I won't, it's to explain to others who read your "great time to buy bitcoin" recommendation that maybe they should think that one through and ask "is it though".

[Satoshi]

Pretty much any time is a great time to buy bitcoin in my opinion, but even moreso when it's just had a big dip.

If you're holding for the long term, for both stocks and crypto these short term dips are nothing to worry about.

I do admire your confidence in technical analysis though, good luck with it.

Very much agree that people should take a balanced view and many perspectives before investing, and not listen to some guy (or guys) on the internet.

Someone buying crypto now won't regret it in a year, or 5 years, or 10 years. That makes it a good time to buy. If you want a quick buck then maybe not.

Buying dips in an upward trend was surely buying after the first big dip in November?

[welshbairn]

24 minutes ago, Satoshi said:

Someone buying crypto now won't regret it in a year, or 5 years, or 10 years

Are you offering a guarantee on that?