Bitcoin/cryptocurrency thread

[strichener]

22 hours ago, gaz5 said:

The clue was in the word "my".

"My" equity portfolio is indeed down more than "my" crypto portfolio in the last week.

But sure, ignore the actual point of the post for a second time and concentrate on that, irrelevant in any case, bit.

Also more than a hint of irony in one of the anti crypto brigade, in the crypto thread, raising the issue of false statements though. Touche.

You also stated that Crypto was a small part of your portfolio.  I come back to my original statement.  Either your equities are stock picks that have been poorly researched or you are being less than honest about relative performance.

I also find the chat, and this isn't particularly aimed at yourself, to be rather cult like tbh. 

Edited January 24, 2022 by strichener

[gaz5]

You also stated that Crypto was a small part of your portfolio.  I come back to my original statement.  Either your equities are stock picks that have been poorly researched or you are being less than honest about relative performance.
I also find the chat, and this isn't particularly aimed at yourself, to be rather cult like tbh. 

It started at 10% or so and is now more than 25%.

I've said before I don't pick individual stock because the but and sells are too expensive in fees, I'm in ETF's. One Vanguard and one HSBC, both medium risk and both generally among the better performers in that class.

But relative performance is, well, relative.

S&P 500. 2021: +38%, 2022: - 11%
BTC 2021.+148%, 2022 - 23%

Doesn't take a genius to work out which of those two is the better performing in my time both markets.

But you'll find you guys rushing in here with BTC = bad stories from the independent when it pulls back a fraction of its runup, like we the other day, as soon as it has a pullback, like it vindicates you guys for not being involved and proves that of us who are are idiots.

"Thought it was quiet in here".

I'm not sure who you guys are trying to convince TBH and of the two "camps" in this debate the one that sounds like a cult probably isn't the one you think it is.

It's ok not to understand something so decide to stay out. No one here is upset at you guys for that or trying to convince you to change your minds.

Quite the contrary, it's the anti crypto folks trying to get us to drink their cool aid.

[Kapowzer]

I mean ..... you could just tootle off ..... and it's no longer a problem for you? There ..... sorted it for you.

I guess you grasp the concept of percentages?

i.e. I have a £500k house and Imagine there's a satanic cult of crypto worshipers in the woods nearby, it's taken 25k off the asking price = 5% loss

I borrowed Iron Mike's £15 in ill gotten crypto referral fees. I invest it in Brewdog shares last night and wake up today to see my £15 is now £10 .... that represents a 33% loss

Monetarily there's an almost £25k difference, in percentages, it flips.

But I'm sure you'll agree, no one is beholden to you to disclose their entire investment portfolio to the penny, especially to trolls with an almost creepy fixation in the hope that it all goes to shit so it can pad out their egos.

 

[Satoshi]

When it comes to the crypto dip (or crash) and indeed that of the equities market the question you have to ask yourself as a long term investor is - is this the highest it will ever be? Will a new ATH be reached?

Given that the share of the world population invested in crypto is estiamted at 3.9% (and equities 13%) the answer is a resounding yes - many new ATHs will be reached in the next decade never mind long term.

I've been actively buying the dip since November but many of my punts are well down in value. C'est la vie - there's not many safe places for excess cash at the moment. Inflation is high, equities and crypto are falling. My best 'investment' since then has been agreeing a fixed price new car purchase 

The only relative safety would be in property (which I've never owned any of beyond property companies in ETFs) but it's still a tax disadvantageous, hasslesome, illiquid investment so I'll probably stay clear. The UK government seems determined to prop up housing prices the same way the US government props up equity prices.

If you're going to invest in equities you should expect to lose 20-30% of your investment every few years (usually in a very short period). With crypto that can rise to 80% in a day. If that's something you can't accept it probably isn't for you.

I rewatched the excellent Mayfair set recently and it features the early corporate raiders terrified of the end of the world stock market crash in the 70s. Does anyone remember what happened after that?

[welshbairn]

33 minutes ago, Satoshi said:

When it comes to the crypto dip (or crash) and indeed that of the equities market the question you have to ask yourself as a long term investor is - is this the highest it will ever be? Will a new ATH be reached?

Given that the share of the world population invested in crypto is estiamted at 3.9% (and equities 13%) the answer is a resounding yes - many new ATHs will be reached in the next decade never mind long term.

I've been actively buying the dip since November but many of my punts are well down in value. C'est la vie - there's not many safe places for excess cash at the moment. Inflation is high, equities and crypto are falling. My best 'investment' since then has been agreeing a fixed price new car purchase 

The only relative safety would be in property (which I've never owned any of beyond property companies in ETFs) but it's still a tax disadvantageous, hasslesome, illiquid investment so I'll probably stay clear. The UK government seems determined to prop up housing prices the same way the US government props up equity prices.

If you're going to invest in equities you should expect to lose 20-30% of your investment every few years (usually in a very short period). With crypto that can rise to 80% in a day. If that's something you can't accept it probably isn't for you.

I rewatched the excellent Mayfair set recently and it features the early corporate raiders terrified of the end of the world stock market crash in the 70s. Does anyone remember what happened after that?

The thing that differentiates crypto and equity is that there's usually some tangible asset involved in the latter, either in what they make or in the secondary or tertiary firms they invest in. That's what I don't see in crypto, if new buyers don't come in or current ones get spooked and sell, there isn't anything to sell off for the people who were too late to offload, not even a rusty warehouse. It's pure speculation with zero innate value. People claim that it's the blockchain tech that holds the value, but what's stopping traditional banks and financial institutions just adopting it for themselves, backed by huge and tangible real world reserves and Government backing? If anyone can use it, it's free, so why pay for it? Fair play to you lot involved in it and I hope you all get rich, or at least have fun trying, but particularly after reading @gaz5's explanation to @jamamafegan above, it makes no sense to me and as Warren Buffet says, don't invest in something you don't understand

Edited January 25, 2022 by welshbairn

[Satoshi]

Yeah that's fine, I don't believe it's a purely speculative device. Most financial products (e.g. gold and even equities to a certain extent) the value is more theoretical than tangible. In owning shares you don't own company assets (most large companies will own these seperately) or profits you only have the right to a dividend if they choose to pay any (and to vote at AGMs).

And I do agree with Buffet to a certain extent but I would say most people don't really understand any assets they invest in (myself included). ETFs are beneficial because they are cheap and simple but I'm not bothering to do any technical or fundamental analysis. I'd suspect most people owning shares don't know how or why they are valued as they are.

If you have got excess cash invest in diversified assets, I think I hold around 20% crypto, 75% equities and 5% cash but this will change and amend depending on your individual circumstances.

If you don't want crypto you can invest in stuff like classic cars or vintage wine that always looked quite fun.

And worth saying on Buffet, he's rightly earned his reputation as the best investor ever but even he has struggled badly recently and certainly can't time the market. Beating the market consistently is very difficult, and if you think you can do it you are probably wrong.

Edited January 25, 2022 by Satoshi

[gaz5]

The thing that differentiates crypto and equity is that there's usually some tangible asset involved in the latter, either in what they make or in the secondary or tertiary firms they invest in. That's what I don't see in crypto, if new buyers don't come in or current ones get spooked and sell, there isn't anything to sell off for the people who were too late to offload, not even a rusty warehouse. It's pure speculation with zero innate value. People claim that it's the blockchain tech that holds the value, but what's stopping traditional banks and financial institutions just adopting it for themselves, backed by huge and tangible real world reserves and Government backing? If anyone can use it, it's free, so why pay for it? Fair play to you lot involved in it and I hope you all get rich, or at least have fun trying, but particularly after reading [mention=24104]gaz5[/mention]'s explanation to [mention=19616]jamamafegan[/mention] above, it makes no sense to me and as Warren Buffet says, don't invest in something you don't understand

The "tangible asset" argument is a poor one IMO.

If I buy shares in Tesla, I don't have access to any of those tangible assets. I get a diluted vote and a dividend and that's it. I still have to put my faith in Tesla that they'll manage those assets properly to raise the share value and give me a return and hope their owner doesn't Tweet about selling all his shares and cause my share value to plummet regardless of what assets they hold.

But no matter, the thing that a lot of people don't understand about crypto is that in most (useful) cases the token IS the tangible asset itself.

If you buy ETH for example, you are buying the thing that runs the network and pays the gas fees. Because Ethereum is the largest layer 1 network, thousands of other products and services are built on it and ALL of those services REQUIRE ETH to function. The network effect drives demand for ETH because the token itself has utility, as well as scarcity through a predefined (and unchangeable) supply and the value of the asset is inherent in both that utility and deflatory availability.

I generally find that people using the "tangible assets" line haven't bothered to try and understand where the value in the crypto market is. Yes, there are DOGE's and memes like it that carry none, but they're are plenty of equities out there backed by nothing that are purely speculative as well. That doesn't mean they all are.

The "but anyone can do it" argument is also lazy. That applies to pretty much every equity as well.

There's nothing to stop, for example, anyone today could decide to stay a car company, to compete with other car companies. Or is it only in crypto that competition for market share in whatever part of the market that is bad?

In terms of CDBC's and Central Banks, those are not and will never be cryptocurrencies and the banks themselves are open about that. I listened to the BoE talk about their CDBC plans in November last year and they themselves were open that a Digital £ would rely on crypto and crypto networks to function as the middle man between different CDBC's (as a bridge to the counterparty risk involved in every country having their own) but would not be a cryptocurrency. Crypto, an evolved form of what we have now, will provide the bridge for remittance between them.

This is already happening in Asia.

But at least you're admitting you dont understand it and that's why you want to stay out, which is both ansultely fine and a long way from assuming that because you don't, no one else does and that makes it "wrong" and them idiots.

[DiegoDiego]

The vast majority of pro-crypto posts on this read have been, like most of P&B, sensible and reasoned. I do understand how casual observers get a bad impression of crypto after seeing heads of state post things like this.

[strichener]

17 hours ago, Kapowzer said:

I mean ..... you could just tootle off ..... and it's no longer a problem for you? There ..... sorted it for you.

I guess you grasp the concept of percentages?

i.e. I have a £500k house and Imagine there's a satanic cult of crypto worshipers in the woods nearby, it's taken 25k off the asking price = 5% loss

I borrowed Iron Mike's £15 in ill gotten crypto referral fees. I invest it in Brewdog shares last night and wake up today to see my £15 is now £10 .... that represents a 33% loss

Monetarily there's an almost £25k difference, in percentages, it flips.

But I'm sure you'll agree, no one is beholden to you to disclose their entire investment portfolio to the penny, especially to trolls with an almost creepy fixation in the hope that it all goes to shit so it can pad out their egos.

 

What is this utter shambolic post?  Of course I could just tootle off but then it is a public forum.

As for percentages, I think it is you who can't read - I was expressing loss in percentage terms hence why I used a % when posting and not absolute cash as there is no way to compare two different markets other than relative performance.  Thanks for your advise though, I'll file it in the appropriate bin.

Throwing around accusations of trolling and creepy behaviour.  A large lack of self-awareness being shown by yourself here.  Your post definitely falls into the cult that I was speaking about. 

[strichener]

17 hours ago, gaz5 said:

 

 

It started at 10% or so and is now more than 25%.

I've said before I don't pick individual stock because the but and sells are too expensive in fees, I'm in ETF's. One Vanguard and one HSBC, both medium risk and both generally among the better performers in that class.

But relative performance is, well, relative.

S&P 500. 2021: +38%, 2022: - 11%
BTC 2021.+148%, 2022 - 23%

Doesn't take a genius to work out which of those two is the better performing in my time both markets.
 

 

Your right it doesn't take a genius.  However it also wasn't what you posted now was it?  There is a vast difference between that statement and your original one which was using the last week as a reference period.

[gaz5]

Your right it doesn't take a genius.  However it also wasn't what you posted now was it?  There is a vast difference between that statement and your original one which was using the last week as a reference period.

No, the bit you are clinging to in that post was both 100% accurate AND not the point of the post, which you've missed again despite having it explained 3 times now.

I'll deal with the least important bit first: My equity portfolio has lost more value than my crypto one on the last week. That you don't like that fact doesn't make it any less of a fact.

And the main point of that post, again, was that the OP having a pop at crypto based on it having a large drawdown AT THE SAME TIME as all risk on assets, including equities, were having the same drawdown, FOR THE SAME REASON, was both lazy and disingenuous.

I know you know this, because I know from seeing your posts over years you're not daft. Which means I find myself asking why you're not dealing with that point.

I'll assume you would concede that all markets are down the last week, for the same macro economic reason (which will resolve one way or another tomorrow) and that picking out crypto being down specifically, while ignoring the same affect observed in the "better" markets, isn't a good Crypto bad argument?

[Kapowzer]

3 hours ago, strichener said:

What is this utter shambolic post?  Of course I could just tootle off but then it is a public forum.

As for percentages, I think it is you who can't read - I was expressing loss in percentage terms hence why I used a % when posting and not absolute cash as there is no way to compare two different markets other than relative performance.  Thanks for your advise though, I'll file it in the appropriate bin.

Throwing around accusations of trolling and creepy behaviour.  A large lack of self-awareness being shown by yourself here.  Your post definitely falls into the cult that I was speaking about. 

Yes it is public but you are not compelled to get involved. You do it because of ego. I have no interest in needlepoint but I don't feel the need to post in the needlepoint forum of mumsnet.com about the dangers of p***king my finger. I just leave them to it.

Also, nothing cultish about my post, I just called out your monotonous tropes. I have no desire to recruit, convert or shag any unbelievers. As has been conveyed already, no one is on here selling it, advising people to remortgage their house. If you feel its not for you, great. However don't be surprised when every time the market drops, your hand wringing and sage prophecies are met with an eye roll.

So much of this thread is "crypto is bollocks" met with multiple reasoned explanations met with "crypto is still bollocks and your talking shite".

So, point to where on the teddy the bad crypto trader touched you .....

[strichener]

15 hours ago, Kapowzer said:

Yes it is public but you are not compelled to get involved. You do it because of ego. I have no interest in needlepoint but I don't feel the need to post in the needlepoint forum of mumsnet.com about the dangers of p***king my finger. I just leave them to it.

Also, nothing cultish about my post, I just called out your monotonous tropes. I have no desire to recruit, convert or shag any unbelievers. As has been conveyed already, no one is on here selling it, advising people to remortgage their house. If you feel its not for you, great. However don't be surprised when every time the market drops, your hand wringing and sage prophecies are met with an eye roll.

So much of this thread is "crypto is bollocks" met with multiple reasoned explanations met with "crypto is still bollocks and your talking shite".

So, point to where on the teddy the bad crypto trader touched you .....

Oh dear.  Probably want to read back your post when you are not drunk/high and then delete it.

I mean to take the topic and turn it to sexual abuse is not a great look.

[strichener]

18 hours ago, gaz5 said:

No, the bit you are clinging to in that post was both 100% accurate AND not the point of the post, which you've missed again despite having it explained 3 times now.

I'll deal with the least important bit first: My equity portfolio has lost more value than my crypto one on the last week. That you don't like that fact doesn't make it any less of a fact.

And the main point of that post, again, was that the OP having a pop at crypto based on it having a large drawdown AT THE SAME TIME as all risk on assets, including equities, were having the same drawdown, FOR THE SAME REASON, was both lazy and disingenuous.

I know you know this, because I know from seeing your posts over years you're not daft. Which means I find myself asking why you're not dealing with that point.

I'll assume you would concede that all markets are down the last week, for the same macro economic reason (which will resolve one way or another tomorrow) and that picking out crypto being down specifically, while ignoring the same affect observed in the "better" markets, isn't a good Crypto bad argument?

I'll agree with you on all the markets being down (if you ignore certain currency pairs) and I'm happy to note that your off-the-cuff remark (if you can have such a thing on a message board) was not the main thrust of your post.  However, I am not compelled to comment on the entirety of your post, only the parts where I feel comment is merited.

I think we have both made out points so I'll happily leave you to your investment strategies which hopefully continue to give you positive outcomes, regardless of asset class.

[iron mike python]

On 24/01/2022 at 21:27, jamamafegan said:

 

Mike, would you say it’s a good time to buy the dip? I’m swithering but this chat about “the feds” is giving me the fear.

 

I would wait a few more months. (3-4 months). Then buy Ethereum/Bitcoin/Avalanche at that point.

This would historically give you a profit if you held for 3 years. It is as safe a tactic as you can get in this mental market. Or maybe dollar cost average over the next year would also spread risk.

 

[iron mike python]

On 24/01/2022 at 21:30, Zetterlund said:

Define "worked" 

I had some node rewards ready to collect but it wanted $730 off me for the privilege. I'll have another look on Sunday morning.

I'd define worked as in it was in high demand, and didn't go down and plenty of people (richer than ourselves) were willing to spend money on blockspace to carry out transactions on Ethereum L1. 

Where as people were simply unable to make trades on Solana, because the network actually didn't work at a very busy point in time. Why wouldn't you just keep your money on an exchange if you want to use a centralised service that can't handle busy periods?

[mrcat1990]

On 12/11/2021 at 07:42, mrcat1990 said:

Abracadabra/MIM is not audited so would look to avoid it. I mostly throw money into projects on Terra and they have done a farming strategy with Abracadabra's Degenbox involving looping UST and MIM round and round between Degenbox and Anchor protocol. Silly high yield potentials but not willing to risk it with the lack of auditing. 

Guessing some will have seen the unfolding Wonderland drama and Dani Sesta's pretty honking damage control. Seems my uneasiness about Abracadra as Sesta in general was fairly well founded.

[iron mike python]

57 minutes ago, mrcat1990 said:

Guessing some will have seen the unfolding Wonderland drama and Dani Sesta's pretty honking damage control. Seems my uneasiness about Abracadra as Sesta in general was fairly well founded.

Aye, good critical thinking skills from yourself.  

The Sesta response is pish, 'I knew his identity and criminal past but I chose to forgive and you should all forgive him'.  It isn't the end of this story I think. 

 

[welshbairn]

Wild story.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/11/the-strange-tale-of-quadriga-gerald-cotten

[NotThePars]

On 25/01/2022 at 21:46, Kapowzer said:

So, point to where on the teddy the bad crypto trader touched you .....

Well it's good to see the advocates of cryptocurrency continue to be normal about it.