Bitcoin/cryptocurrency thread

[welshbairn]

53 minutes ago, Kapowzer said:

I don’t get what the endgame is with them though. Is it to dissuade those contemplating getting involved as a some sort of public service or is it plainly just as ego centric as hoping to whip out a “told you so” on a football forum known for its irrelevance, hyperbole and piss taking?

If so you keep on doing you.

It's the idea that only idiots aren't investing in crypto that gets me, and if some of the players are losing it's because they're not doing it right. I've got no problem with gambling, but call it for what it is. The people making the big bucks are the market makers, same as sports betting.

On 22/02/2021 at 14:46, gaz5 said:

Aye, I've lost just under £500 from my account value in 2 hours.

I bought Dot yesterday at £27 thinking it had settled.

I'm trying to console myself in the knowledge that I had no plans to sell any of my main positions, I'm in those for the long term, so a correction (going that's all it is) shouldn't matter.

Still makes you shit yourself when you open Blockfolio though.

 

On 22/02/2021 at 15:37, iron mike python said:

Gaz, see when you feel that gut punch. That is the time that you should be pressing the buy button.

When your coin is high, Bitcoin is high and you feel great= Good time to consider selling.

 

 

Edited January 24, 2022 by welshbairn

[gaz5]

 

At no point, ever, have I suggested or inferred that people who don't trade in crypto are idiots.

Quite the contrary. I've said before and will say again, if it's not for you, that's absolutely fine, stay away from it. Theres a requirement for far more active participation that not everyone has the time/interest for. Each to their own.

I've also said plenty of times it's a zero sums game, just like equities/Forex by the way, and some will win while others will lose. The numbers, in terms of retail traders who win and lose, dont differ greatly from equities/Forex.

What I don't understand is all you guys who have decided crypto is not for you, which is absolutely fine by those of us with an alternate view based on our own risk appetite, constantly jumping in here, a crypto thread, to talk down to the people who have decided it is, like there's some sort of binary right and wrong about it and you somehow have the moral/intellectual high ground.

I don't get what your end game is?

I saw a sign in California once that read: "If you don't like gay marriage, don't get gay married". Though the subject matter and severity of that message very different, I always thought it a clever way of making a really simple, but nuanced point. The sentiment here is the same. If you don't like crypto trading, dont crypto trade. Simples.

[Kapowzer]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

It's the idea that only idiots aren't investing in crypto that gets me, and if some of the players are losing it's because they're not doing it right.

You're going to a helluva lot of trouble scrolling back through pages to multiquote to right what you perceive as a slight. I don't think either of those quotes reinforce your premise however.

Gaz apologies if I'm speaking for you here, but he made a call based on his own research (not shared in advance of his trade), it didn't come to fruition and he held his hands up. Iron Mike's is rewording of the gist of the famous Warren Buffet quote "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful". If you wish to infer questions of your intellect and cite these, there's a lot of heavy lifting going on.

I've been in this thread for about 6 months now and in that time I've only encountered one poster who's contributions were a pro-crypto red neck. Most of the time it's a sharing or heads up resource which is one of many I consult and information gathered is researched elsewhere to either dispel or add weight to it.

I'll reiterate, you do you ..... and maybe let us do us?

[welshbairn]

16 minutes ago, gaz5 said:

At no point, ever, have I suggested or inferred that people who don't trade in crypto are idiots.

Quite the contrary. I've said before and will say again, if it's not for you, that's absolutely fine, stay away from it. Theres a requirement for far more active participation that not everyone has the time/interest for. Each to their own.

I've also said plenty of times it's a zero sums game, just like equities/Forex by the way, and some will win while others will lose. The numbers, in terms of retail traders who win and lose, dont differ greatly from equities/Forex.

What I don't understand is all you guys who have decided crypto is not for you, which is absolutely fine by those of us with an alternate view based on our own risk appetite, constantly jumping in here, a crypto thread, to talk down to the people who have decided it is, like there's some sort of binary right and wrong about it and you somehow have the moral/intellectual high ground.

I don't get what your end game is?

I saw a sign in California once that read: "If you don't like gay marriage, don't get gay married". Though the subject matter and severity of that message very different, I always thought it a clever way of making a really simple, but nuanced point. The sentiment here is the same. If you don't like crypto trading, dont crypto trade. Simples.

 

I think what you're playing with is wholly dependent on new entrants to the market for you to make a medium term profit, and newbies reading this thread deserve other voices than those encouraging each other with how swimmingly it's all going, and that a 50% crash over a couple of months is only to be expected, never mind the NFT markets. Things like how easy it is to sell when all the whales are bailing out would be handy for instance.

Edited January 24, 2022 by welshbairn

[gaz5]

You're going to a helluva lot of trouble scrolling back through pages to multiquote to right what you perceive as a slight. I don't think either of those quotes reinforce your premise however.
Gaz apologies if I'm speaking for you here, but he made a call based on his own research (not shared in advance of his trade), it didn't come to fruition and he held his hands up. Iron Mike's is rewording of the gist of the famous Warren Buffet quote "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful". If you wish to infer questions of your intellect and cite these, there's a lot of heavy lifting going on.
I've been in this thread for about 6 months now and in that time I've only encountered one poster who's contributions were a pro-crypto red neck. Most of the time it's a sharing or heads up resource which is one of many I consult and information gathered is researched elsewhere to either dispel or add weight to it.
I'll reiterate, you do you ..... and maybe let us do us?

Indeed, I get lots of trade calls wrong, that was one of them. That's the nature of probabilities. [emoji846]

I've no expectation of them all being right.

Last month I was 8W/6L on 14 trades, but as I use a formula to position size entry v stop for a max account loss on any single trade of 3% account and have a minimum 1:2 R:R, that returned 38.3% on account.

I only need to be right 38% of the time to be profitable. It's just maths and risk management really.

[Kapowzer]

So public service then. Based on the fact you think this is a tarted up Ponzi.

If a newbie has decided to dabble in crypto since early December, is using this P&B thread with it's 3 posts a week and thinks it's a good time to jump on the bandwagon based on what they've read here well then they're an eejit who deserve to take a hit.

But to reinforce your point, Zetterlund also posted a chart with a decidedly downward trajectory and Gaz suggested earlier:

On 22/01/2022 at 20:02, gaz5 said:

FWIW, it's all going to go down further as well. Crypto, Equities, Metals, RE. It's all got further to fall.

I expect Bitcoin to fall to the 28.8-31.1 range then bounce by the end of the quarter/first half of Q2 to 42-46. At that point, whether it's a LL/LH/LL combo or upside continuation will depend on market conditions at that point.

Would you buy in now based on that?

[welshbairn]

8 minutes ago, Kapowzer said:

3 posts a week

It was a lot more when it was climbing and @iron mike python was getting his commission for referrals. If it was my forum I'd put it back in the gambling subforum where I think it started, just so people know what they're getting into. Then you might get fewer unwanted visitors.

Edited January 24, 2022 by welshbairn

[gaz5]

I think what you're playing with is wholly dependent on new entrants to the market for you to make a medium term profit, and newbies reading this thread deserve other voices than those encouraging each other with how swimmingly it's all going, and that a 50% crash over a couple of months is only to be expected, never mind the NFT markets. Things like how easy it is to sell when all the whales have bailed out would be handy for instance.

Those are your opinions though, based on hearsay and inuendo, but no actual first hand knowledge or experience of the market or its participants. You've not got that knowledge or experience to pass on to those new people you are concerned about and instead you're passing off your bias as inferred wisdom.

What you are doing, in reality, is the same as the Facebook immunologists of the last 18 months.

I would argue that the "views" of no coiners, as sceptics who openly admit to not experiencing the market and the assumptions you make based on your pre conceived bias is more dangerous to a new entrant than the opinions you attach to those of us with the experience.

Particularly those of us being honest about it. It is risky, you shouldn't be all in, you need to be observant, you should DYOR on everything and only risk money you are ok to lose.

I don't recall anyone actually involved in crypto in this thread who has tried to hide the risk involved in this (or any other) market.

If I were a new participant, which I was once, I would certainly weigh the views of people at experience in the market and the technology as more useful to me than those on the outside, self confessed anti cryptoites, throwing stones in.

[gaz5]

It was a lot more when it was climbing and [mention=5939]iron mike python[/mention] was getting his commission for referrals. If it was my forum I'd put it back in the gambling subforum where I think it started, just so people know what they're getting into. Then you might get fewer unwanted visitors.

TBH, I wouldn't have an issue with that.

But all investment/trading threads should be treated the same way and moved in there.

Just because you don't like an asset class, doesn't change the nature of markets.

[Kapowzer]

21 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Then you might get fewer unwanted visitors.

cough cough

[welshbairn]

11 minutes ago, gaz5 said:

TBH, I wouldn't have an issue with that.

But all investment/trading threads should be treated the same way and moved in there.

Just because you don't like an asset class, doesn't change the nature of markets.

The only other "investment" thread I know of is in the Gold section.

https://www.pieandbovril.com/forum/index.php?/topic/65352-panic-merchants

[gaz5]

The only other "investment" thread I know of is in the Gold section.
https://www.pieandbovril.com/forum/index.php?/topic/65352-panic-merchants

There is (or was) an "investing" thread.

[DiegoDiego]

The other thing about regarding crypto or equities or mortgages is that cash is the same, just with lower risks and almost guaranteed to lose you value. Deciding not to invest is an investment decision and still a gamble. Everything we do in life has opportunity cost and associated risk and dependent on what choices the outweighing masses make.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The other thing about regarding crypto or equities or mortgages is that cash is the same, just with lower risks and almost guaranteed to lose you value. Deciding not to invest is an investment decision and still a gamble. Everything we do in life has opportunity cost and associated risk and dependent on what choices the outweighing masses make.

Much lower risk for traditional investments does make them different though.

Personally I don't have the slightest inclination to dabble in crypto because of the volatility - others here will be less risk averse - that's their choice.

That being said, I'd be equally averse to some of the more traditional, riskier futures and derivatives as well.

[Detournement]

15 hours ago, gaz5 said:

I've also said plenty of times it's a zero sums game, just like equities/Forex by the way, and some will win while others will lose. The numbers, in terms of retail traders who win and lose, dont differ greatly from equities/Forex.

What I don't understand is all you guys who have decided crypto is not for you, which is absolutely fine by those of us with an alternate view based on our own risk appetite, constantly jumping in here, a crypto thread, to talk down to the people who have decided it is, like there's some sort of binary right and wrong about it and you somehow have the moral/intellectual high ground.

 

The problem is though that due to price manipulation via wash trading and fraudulent stable coins lots of people think they are winning when they are going to lose very, very badly. 

The reason for commenting on the thread is because it's interesting. It's a massive social experiment. Observing NFT culture in particular is incredibly entertaining. 

Edited January 24, 2022 by Detournement

[gaz5]

The problem is though that due to price manipulation via wash trading and fraudulent stable coins lots of people think they are winning when they are going to lose very, very badly. 
The reason for commenting on the thread is because it's interesting. It's a massive social experiment. Observing NFT culture in particular is incredibly entertaining. 

Valid points.

But (and while not trying to make light of those issues), traditional markets are manipulated as well, through a number of "legal" (or at least not illegal) practices.

NFT's, you know where I stand on that already. [emoji846]

Though they are currently providing a good education in investing to my 8 year old. So that's a bonus.

[iron mike python]

18 hours ago, welshbairn said:

It was a lot more when it was climbing and @iron mike python was getting his commission for referrals. If it was my forum I'd put it back in the gambling subforum where I think it started, just so people know what they're getting into. Then you might get fewer unwanted visitors.

You really focus on me throwing a cheeky wee referral into my signature, it is peculiar. I got a whopping high of £15 worth of referral fees (at its high) probably worth £5 now. But I no longer have an account on Binance after they required ID.

In other news, the past few days have been good at showing the decentralised networks which are unbothered by market moves. Ethereum, Bitcoin and Avalanche all worked well, Solana has struggled big time over the past few days.

[jamamafegan]

You really focus on me throwing a cheeky wee referral into my signature, it is peculiar. I got a whopping high of £15 worth of referral fees (at its high) probably worth £5 now. But I no longer have an account on Binance after they required ID.
In other news, the past few days have been good at showing the decentralised networks which are unbothered by market moves. Ethereum, Bitcoin and Avalanche all worked well, Solana has struggled big time over the past few days.

Mike, would you say it’s a good time to buy the dip? I’m swithering but this chat about “the feds” is giving me the fear.

[Zetterlund]

13 minutes ago, iron mike python said:

Ethereum, Bitcoin and Avalanche all worked well, Solana has struggled big time over the past few days.

Define "worked" 

I had some node rewards ready to collect but it wanted $730 off me for the privilege. I'll have another look on Sunday morning.

[gaz5]

Mike, would you say it’s a good time to buy the dip? I’m swithering but this chat about “the feds” is giving me the fear.

IMO, with a stop in place, the R:R here is as good as it's been in a while.

Whether C of a run flat wave 4 or A of an ending zigzag ABC (with 69k being the top) the bounce here should go to 43-47 by fibs (over the next 2 months or so) before either upside continuation or confirming C downside to low 20's.

I was looking for a bit lower (28.1 is the .618 fib of W1 for an ending Zigzag, 33.4 the 0.5) but the 5 waves down are complete and fib out correctly. Divergence on the H4, but not the daily would be my main concern, but that's what the stops for.

I've entered at 33.7 with a stop at 31.4 and a target ladder out of 43-47, average 45. 1:5 R:R with a potential 25% return.

DYOR though obvs and I wouldn't recommend going in without a stop and appropriate position size for your risk given the FOMC tomorrow. But for me QT is already priced in.