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Literally the first thing you learn in any reputable guide to investing is that past market behaviour is no guide to future returns. To the point where they are legally obliged to mention it in adverts etc. But don't worry about it, a bunch of manchild libertarian weirdos have solved that one - turns out it was pish all along! Bitcoin halves every four years and 'this is quite frankly irrefutable' - truly the financial soothsayers of the age.
"Doesn't guarantee future returns", not "is no guide to market behaviour", there's a more than subtle difference. No one looking at the past is looking to "guarantee" anything, unless they're an idiot. It's about probabilities based on historical patterns, maths, backtesting, paper trading, continuous refinement and risk management.

I think a lot of people on here, who confess not to trade themselves, don't really understand how all of these elements hang together so make wild assumptions about how stupid everyone is who is involved in this market.

I'm +37% on account in November based on 12 trades, 7 wins and 5 losses. Looking at past data isn't about being able to predict the future, it's about finding patterns that repeat and when they do they win more often than they lose at a certain R:R target. And then limiting the downside risk in every individual trade with stop losses.

This assumption that it's about "predicting the future" is an ignorant one.

And as I've said before, TA is exactly the same in Crypto as it is in equities, Forex and commodities. The only real difference is the volatility, which is why Risk Management is key.

In terms of the bitcoin cycle, I know it's difficult for people not involved to get their head around because other markets don't have that variable and thus don't work that way. Crypto eventually won't either, when Bitcoin losses its dominance over the market.

But that's the way it works right now.

I say it's irrefutable that's the way it works right now because it is. If you took even 5 minutes to look at a chart and plug in the bitcoin halvings you would know this as well.

Bitcoin Dominance regularly sits above 50% prior to the Uptrend starting. Often as high as 70%. In a market with 12000+ assets, one of them accounts for 50-70% of the entire market.

That is why Bitcoin and it's chart determines the cycle for a whole asset class. Look at BTC.D and you'll see for yourself.

Also, unlike in traditional markets, it's only since 2017 you could actually buy assets with stable coin. Prior to this ALL trading was done on the BTC pair. These BTC pairs still exist and are still heavily traded. This means money flows from BTC to Alts and back again constantly, further emphasising BTC importance.

You can't buy Apple stock with Tesla stock so it has no value in Tesla. In crypto, you can buy most things with BTC, meaning most assets have a value in BTC.

Again, this and the dominance are why it (currently) drives the market.

I've taken everything off my chart below to emphasise the cycles around the halvings (orange lines).

Peaks, falls back 80%+ to the bottom, starts rising towards the halving (supply shock).

It's not difficult, looking at the data, to see why everyone involved in Crypto knows this is how it works. The ones thinking "it'll be different this time" are taking bigger risk IMO than those looking for validation in the data that it's doing the same again.Screenshot_20211111-221850.jpg
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15 hours ago, Fraser Fyvie said:

ZkSync are supposedly doing an airdrop. Follow the steps here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZNU22J3G_4&t=170s

No money needed, or a small amount if you do the extra transaction at the end which I did just in case.

 

Cheers for sharing, decided to take a punt on this ($65 gas fee for the final step 🥲)

Also sadly Metahero looks like it's joining Yearn Finance and Doge as one of my crypto lessons learned. Their combined losses still more than covered by Radix this week alone. The world of cheap money and crypto.

On technical and fundamental analysis both are important whether looking at shares or crypto, but for various technical analysis far more important in crypto.

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16 hours ago, Fraser Fyvie said:

ZkSync are supposedly doing an airdrop. Follow the steps here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZNU22J3G_4&t=170s

No money needed, or a small amount if you do the extra transaction at the end which I did just in case.

 

Cheers for sharing, decided to take a punt on this ($65 gas fee for the final step 🥲)

Also sadly Metahero looks like it's joining Yearn Finance and Doge as one of my crypto lessons learned. Their combined losses still more than covered by Radix this week alone. The world of cheap money and crypto.

On technical and fundamental analysis both are important whether looking at shares or crypto, but for various reasons technical analysis far more important in crypto. The only requirement for it to work in either is that other people also do it...

Edited by Satoshi
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On 07/11/2021 at 21:18, DiegoDiego said:


 


I'm not a great fan of twitter, especially twitter threads which would be better off as a blog post, but I guess that's for the PTTGOYN thread. Thanks for the link though!

Now you mention it, I have actually heard of MIM and though it does make it sound very scammy it's quite a hilarious name really and will definitely attract attention.

Abracadabra/MIM is not audited so would look to avoid it. I mostly throw money into projects on Terra and they have done a farming strategy with Abracadabra's Degenbox involving looping UST and MIM round and round between Degenbox and Anchor protocol. Silly high yield potentials but not willing to risk it with the lack of auditing. 

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10 hours ago, iron mike python said:

Because there is a high demand for people to borrow. Lending and Borrowing can be done without a middleman in defi, reducing the costs. Think of all the wasted capital that goes into keeping traditional loans/borrowing system going. Think of all the time that is lost in a traditional scenario (time is money). Think of all the bureaucracy that happens in a traditional system.

Instead in Defi you just have to simply trust the open source code. And get good rates. 

Surely the exchange offering the interest rate is the middle man?

The purpose of the ridiculous interest rate is to stop people cashing out and crashing the market. Tether/USDC is worthless and billions more can be created at any time, the rate is pegged where it is to encourage small investors to HODL a completely worthless coin which means the big players can drain out the maximum amount of new fiat entering the market. 

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31 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Surely the exchange offering the interest rate is the middle man?

The purpose of the ridiculous interest rate is to stop people cashing out and crashing the market. Tether/USDC is worthless and billions more can be created at any time, the rate is pegged where it is to encourage small investors to HODL a completely worthless coin which means the big players can drain out the maximum amount of new fiat entering the market. 

Just like USD then?

And no middleman on decentralized exchanges.

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27 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Surely the exchange offering the interest rate is the middle man?

 

You are getting confused by your own picture. In the picture you posted earlier, the exchange is the middleman. They are taking a cut of the great rates offered by defi. Most banks/exchanges will offer access to these yields within 5 years.

But that's not defi. 

Defi exists for you to connect with your wallet directly to the protocols (Curve, Uniswap, Aave, Cake etc). Then access yield without anyone getting in your way.

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On 07/11/2021 at 12:27, iron mike python said:

In a bull market like we are just now, (and will continue to be for a few more months) these guys will probably get louder and louder but they will disappear during the bear market. Same will happen in this thread.

At one point 2 years from now this thread will only be Detournement laughing at me because I am saying "I am in it for the tech" because all the coins are down >80% from current value, as I desperately claim that I sold into stable coins at the top.

The talk about crypto in real life is tough, very rarely you will meet someone who is into the same part of crypto as you are. I think you did the right thing. That is why it is important for me to have the Telegram/discord groups to talk about these crypto subcommunities and also why I like this thread (when it isn't being spammed by no coiner negativity.)

You are absolutely correct in what you say there with regards to real life crypto chat, but it can become seriously grating when you need to listen to such ignorance passed off as expert analysis. There’s a guy that downloaded coinbase a week ago that sits saying stuff like ‘I’m pouncing on this’ as he sticks £30 into his account. He genuinely expects to wake up one morning in the near future to a million pound portfolio. 
 

There was a group of 4 or 5 guys who have jumped on the bandwagon literally in the last few weeks, but to be fair to one of them he has been at it for at least 5 years, as he showed me a purchase he made in 2016 of £1500 into Ethereum at something like $8. He traded out a few months later at $15 and thought he done well. He only let this slip during the week when Eth was hitting ATHs, and he calculated that if he had held his original investment he would be sitting holding somewhere in the ball park of 1.2 million dollars today. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
What are the fees on that?
Anyone who is trading bitcoin while staying in a hostel in one of the cheapest countries is likely to be a roaster. It's been a while since I was in Bucharest but I rented a big ex Communist flat right in the centre for absolute buttons. 
I don't know about the actual mechanics of it, but of course they'll be looking to make money at some point, whether that's from a customer acquisition standpoint or flat fees or whatever I'm not sure.

Romania isn't one of the cheapest countries anymore though. Prices are as close to the UK as they are the Ukraine.
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18 hours ago, DiegoDiego said:

Just seen my first bitcoin ATM, at a hostel in Romania.

Been a few of them dotted around Zug, the city I work in, for a few years now. Apparently this place is the European Capital of Crypto mind you.

On a somewhat related note, what is the best mobile app/wallet for BTC and XLM? Need to dig out the small amounts I bought a few years ago and start paying attention again.

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I've heard the European Capital of Crypto about Zug a few times but I get the feeling it's very much a "if you build it they will come" scenario. Not a bad idea though. Look at how much the USA have profited from Silicon Valley. Portugal, Estonia, Singapore and Georgia are other countries doing a lot to foster start up immigration.

Then you have charter cities like Prospero which will either fall on their arse, do exceptionally well in attracting talent, or end up as some tropical Cumbernauld.

I still think the USA will get their shite together and be the dominant location for new technology for a while to come, but their competition is getting stronger.

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