Bitcoin/cryptocurrency thread

[gaz5]

You are holding BTC to the point of transaction so how are you subject to the same inflation? [emoji38] 

In fairness, he's not wrong IMO

Inflation is a reduction in buying power caused by a rise in the cost of goods.

As you buy the goods in GBP denominated prices, it's no different to buying a barrel of oil for example and paying in GBP (when it's priced in $).

All that you're saving is the ForEx spread, essentially.

Im a fan of crypto, but I don't buy the inflation hedge narrative any more than a lot of no coiners.

At some point in the next 18 months BTC is going to lose 80% of it's value from it's peak.

[Fraser Fyvie]

23 minutes ago, gaz5 said:

In fairness, he's not wrong IMO

Inflation is a reduction in buying power caused by a rise in the cost of goods.

As you buy the goods in GBP denominated prices, it's no different to buying a barrel of oil for example and paying in GBP (when it's priced in $).

All that you're saving is the ForEx spread, essentially.

Im a fan of crypto, but I don't buy the inflation hedge narrative any more than a lot of no coiners.

At some point in the next 18 months BTC is going to lose 80% of it's value from it's peak.

For short term traders its not an inflation hedge, but if you're holding it for 10 years then it certainly is (unless you just don't believe in it long term). It's growing 200% per year over a decade even including those 80% dips.

Edited September 17, 2021 by Fraser Fyvie

[gaz5]

For short term traders its not an inflation hedge, but if you're holding it for 10 years then it certainly is (unless you just don't believe in it long term). It's growing 200% per year over a decade even including those 80% dips.

I don't have a long term outlook for BTC personally, no. I don't think it's going to die soon or anything, but I think it most certainly finds itself behind better technology and losing its dominance of the crypto market and all its price moves over the next decade, maybe 2.

But that's not the point that was being made really. The point was around BTC as an everyday payment mechanism.

It isn't, because things are still priced in Fiat, so goods and services are always going to be subject to that fiat inflation.

As I say, I'm a crypto fan and balls deep in it right now, but some observations about the current crypto market, line the payments one, are just "fair enough" IMO. It's not mainstream yet, we're still early adopters, that's why we're making so much money. [emoji1787]

ETA: as an aside, paying for a depreciating asset with an appreciating one isn't a great idea anyway, IMO. It's why I thought people paying for Tesla's in BTC were mental.

[UsedToGoToCentralPark]

You can't buy anything with Bitcoin. Anything you want to buy in the UK you need to use GBP. 

Nope, lots of places let you pay in BTC. Scan, for example.

[DiegoDiego]

In The Philippines there's also a wide range of everyday things you can pay for in Smooth Love Potion.

[Detournement]

2 hours ago, UsedToGoToCentralPark said:

8 hours ago, Detournement said:

You can't buy anything with Bitcoin. Anything you want to buy in the UK you need to use GBP. 

Nope, lots of places let you pay in BTC. Scan, for example.

Can you buy your dinner in bitcoin? Pay the leccy in bitcoin?

 

 

 

[Kapowzer]

9 hours ago, gaz5 said:

One of the reasons BTC will be overtaken by other projects in the long run.

The "Netscape or AOL" of 2021.

A great invention that's at the forefront of a technical paradigm shift that'll eventually be surpassed by better, more efficient technology.

Interesting take, my friend that I introduced to Cypto and has now surpassed me in knowledge and research says that all the sources he reads suggests a steady climb to 200k per bitcoin. I think many of those who are saying this are heavily invested and need/hope it to reach that rather than expect it. Hype needs enough people on the train after all.

As you say, the woke generation of millenials who developed this technology, the tied in environmental issues don't go hand in hand with their outlook on life. The pragmatic capitalists/engineers of this world will look to piggyback off what's trailblazed and make it better. Only a few carmakers from the early 1900's are still around now after all.

Gaz you've mentioned before how you work in the industry, are there any cryptocurrencies out there that have impressed you with their capabilities or future tech. If you feel uncomfortable sharing on an open forum I appreciate why.

Anyway in the spirit of sharing, here is a list I've collated of a number of Telegram groups. Feel free to review at all your leisure:

• Evans_crypto
• WhaleBotRektd
• WhaleBotPumps
• CryptoAquarium
• Crytocurrency
• WhaleBotAlerts
• Oneminuteletter
• Newcryptojournal
• DeCenterOrg
• CryptoRankNews
• Cryptoexplorerchannel
• Cointified
• Bit_Novosti
• Altcoin
• CryptoAlerts
• ByBitRussian

 

[Suspect Device]

You can pay for your private jet hire in bitcoin.

https://www.privatefly.com/about/payment-and-pricing-faq.html

[hk blues]

12 hours ago, DiegoDiego said:

In The Philippines there's also a wide range of everyday things you can pay for in Smooth Love Potion.

Hmm...there are a total of 13 merchants in the Philippines accepting it - pretty much all individual stores in Manila only.  I won't be ditching my cash just yet!

[gaz5]

Interesting take, my friend that I introduced to Cypto and has now surpassed me in knowledge and research says that all the sources he reads suggests a steady climb to 200k per bitcoin. I think many of those who are saying this are heavily invested and need/hope it to reach that rather than expect it. Hype needs enough people on the train after all.
As you say, the woke generation of millenials who developed this technology, the tied in environmental issues don't go hand in hand with their outlook on life. The pragmatic capitalists/engineers of this world will look to piggyback off what's trailblazed and make it better. Only a few carmakers from the early 1900's are still around now after all.
Gaz you've mentioned before how you work in the industry, are there any cryptocurrencies out there that have impressed you with their capabilities or future tech. If you feel uncomfortable sharing on an open forum I appreciate why.
Anyway in the spirit of sharing, here is a list I've collated of a number of Telegram groups. Feel free to review at all your leisure:

• Evans_crypto
• WhaleBotRektd
• WhaleBotPumps
• CryptoAquarium
• Crytocurrency
• WhaleBotAlerts
• Oneminuteletter
• Newcryptojournal
• DeCenterOrg
• CryptoRankNews
• Cryptoexplorerchannel
• Cointified
• Bit_Novosti
• Altcoin
• CryptoAlerts
• ByBitRussian

 

The numbers people are targeting for BTC in the next 6 months range from reasonable to insanity. There are genuinely people calling for $1m per coin. Personally, I don't think it ever gets there.

I have two target zones for BTC this cycle, the first being between (roughly) $73k to $84k. The second, if the first is invalidated and we get an over extension, is in the $110k-$123k range.

My exit plan sees me selling half to 80% of my holdings in the retrace after the pullback from BTC's first target (the amount depends on the coin)

If that retrace goes beyond a certain level, I'll hold the rest to the second target in BTC and sell in the retrace there.

I'm expecting that to be between December and May.

The "It'll be different this time" folks, a lot them who seem new to the market (like me) who are expecting crazy high prices across BTC and Alts I essentially see as exit liquidity at the moment.

My main goal is to get out of this cycle a winner and not be holding bags of anything to the next bullrun, even if that means I don't catch the absolute top. The figures Id walk away with for 12 months effort are insane, even at those lower targets, so I've no plans to be greedy and get stuck for 4 years. I want to use profit from this run to fund all my bear market accumulation so I'm playing with the houses money completely, no risk, to compound that into the next run.

It's an interesting point you make about the different actors. I'm an engineer (IT) so certainly fit into your second category and that's how I look at the market. I've no real attachment to any coin or project, I look at them all just in terms of potential % gain. [emoji846]

I'm in financial services rather than crypto specifically, but there are plenty of projects with tech that I like in both the innovation and the use case. For my long term holds that's all I really buy, projects with utility that I can see in the real world. For trading (which I have a small account) I don't care, they're just charts with patterns that meet my predefined rules.

A lot of my picks aren't popular, but I don't really care, it's the tech/utility I look at rather than the popularity.

My main holds at the moment are XRP, VET, MATIC, BNB, ADA and CAKE (this one specifically for the staking. I've had between 240% and 84% APY since March, compounding).

I have a few smaller holds of others I like as well.

There are plenty of projects I like which I've either sold already or didn't buy early enough, like DOT, ONE (sold) and QNT, HBAR (my orders didn't fill).

[Granny Danger]

12 hours ago, DiegoDiego said:

In The Philippines there's also a wide range of everyday things you can pay for in Smooth Love Potion.

I’d be very wary of going into a shop in Lochee and asking the woman at the till if she’d accept smooth love potion.

[DiegoDiego]

Can you buy your dinner in bitcoin? Pay the leccy in bitcoin?
 
 
 

You can certainly buy food with it.

Of course you can't use it for your entire week's shopping but that's not really a criticism. There's still a good chunk of places which don't accept American Express and that's been around for decades.

[Detournement]

When you say you have a target zone for BTC what is driving the price increase other than more people deciding to become BTC speculators and BTC speculators increasing their holding?

 

 

[gaz5]

When you say you have a target zone for BTC what is driving the price increase other than more people deciding to become BTC speculators and BTC speculators increasing their holding?
 
 

Same that drives price moves on stocks and ForEx and any other markets you want to look at.

Markets are markets, TA is universal and that's what the charts say to me based on HTF and LTF history. The instruments don't really matter, all markets move the same way, people and psychology.

I'm just talking probabilities, as that's all you can really do, there's no certainties. But that's where managing risk comes in.

[Detournement]

17 minutes ago, gaz5 said:

Same that drives price moves on stocks and ForEx and any other markets you want to look at.

Markets are markets, TA is universal and that's what the charts say to me based on HTF and LTF history. The instruments don't really matter, all markets move the same way, people and psychology.

I'm just talking probabilities, as that's all you can really do, there's no certainties. But that's where managing risk comes in.

Hundreds of millions of people have no choice but to invest in stock markets through their pension schemes. Every time you go to work you are pumping the stock market. Add to that if the bubble looks like bursting governments will bail the stock market out and there is now a perpetual bail out in the form of QE. 

BTC is dependent on the Tether scam and a never ending supply of greater fools. 

If people are making real money out of riding the Ponzi then good luck to them but there will clearly be an end point. 

Edited September 18, 2021 by Detournement

[DiegoDiego]

BTC is dependent on the Tether scam

You'll need to go into a bit more detail on that claim.

[Detournement]

6 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

You'll need to go into a bit more detail on that claim.

There are plenty of articles on the FT website covering Tether.

This sums it up though. 

[gaz5]

Hundreds of millions of people have no choice but to invest in stock markets through their pension schemes. Every time you go to work you are pumping the stock market. Add to that if the bubble looks like bursting governments will bail the stock market out and there is now a perpetual bail out in the form of QE. 
BTC is dependent on the Tether scam and a never ending supply of greater fools. 
If people are making real money out of riding the Ponzi then good luck to them but there will clearly be an end point. 

That's your view. As someone who trades all 3 markets using the same TA, my view is different.

Ultimately, markets, any market all the way back to rice trading in Japan hundreds of years ago, are driven by human psychology and emotion.

That's why TA works the same way in all markets, as humans trade all markets.

The only difference in Crypto is that the %'s are much, much bigger and the timescales are much, much shorter.

I closed a trade yesterday that was open for 3 days and made 10% on my account. I have a new one open today which is already 3% up on my account and has a target that would see me close out at 13% on account over the next few days if it hits.

That's on my trading account.

My "investment" account, Crypto wise, is up 127% since February. My (conservative based on history and many others TA) would see that investment account at around 2000% this year, if targets hit.

People can ignorantly stand on the sidelines and shout "Ponzi" at Crypto traders as much as they want, I saw the same happen in the late 90's and early 00's with the last real tech boom. Hell, I did it myself till I actually did the research at the start of this year when I found some time. And I can happily admit I was wrong, given what I know now.

Ultimately there's plenty of tech in this market that will survive and change the face of finance, in particular, as we know it, same way that the biggest companies on the planet right now were born of the internet boom.

Will some of it die? Of course. But there are shitty penny stocks in the Equities market as well that will also die when that market crashes very soon.

Will some people lose money? Absolutely, but there's about to be an awful lot lose an awful lot in the equities market too. That's markets, all markets.

[Detournement]

Yeah you're right. If everyone is making huge profits it's definitely sustainable long term....

 

[gaz5]

You'll need to go into a bit more detail on that claim.

Tether, well actually Bitfinex who control it, are the main market makers in crypto. They drive the price of BTC in the same way that market makers do in every market. It's not new and it's not illegal.

Where there are legitimate concerns is around how Tether print and what it's backed by and in all honesty that's a legitimate concern and one I share.

For now, they have the books to confirm that every Tether is backed by $1 worth of value but that's dependent on the value of the assets, rather than actual $ (less than 7% was $ the last I checked) some of which are "questionable" and certainly highly volatile.

But it only really becomes an issue if there's a "run on the bank" and everyone wants their Tether back for $ at the same time when those assets have fallen significantly in value.

I am uncomfortable with Tether though, it's the thing that gives me most concern in the market. But not enough to make me panic at the moment.