Bitcoin/cryptocurrency thread

[gaz5]

I see Musk is at it again.  The swings in BTC value purely on his comments should be a warning to anyone that sees this as an investment.

It doesn't swing on his comments.

There hasn't been a single comment from him yet that didn't come after price had already broken on one direction of the other, including yesterday, where price was playing out the double bottom reversal from the day before after a long term support zone had been broken (30033-31115).

I'm no BTC Maxi (I don't actually own any BTC) but I know charts.

It's a fallacy that Elon moves price with comments. The only thing that moves price is money.

[welshbairn]

54 minutes ago, gaz5 said:

It doesn't swing on his comments.

There hasn't been a single comment from him yet that didn't come after price had already broken on one direction of the other, including yesterday, where price was playing out the double bottom reversal from the day before after a long term support zone had been broken (30033-31115).

I'm no BTC Maxi (I don't actually own any BTC) but I know charts.

It's a fallacy that Elon moves price with comments. The only thing that moves price is money.

Sounds like the early rise could have been people gambling on him saying the right thing.

Quote

The bitcoin price jumped Wednesday by the most since mid-June. At one point, the largest cryptocurrency was changing hands around $32,800, up more than 10% over the past 24 hours, but later pared those gains to about 6%.

According to Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan, bitcoin’s price rise earlier on Wednesday was partly on anticipation of the event.

“As we await what promises to be the greatest-ever bitcoin livestream, it’s clear that the market is already very excited,” Greenspan wrote in his daily newsletter. At its peak, Dogecoin was up 19% on Wednesday to about 20 cents.

https://www.coindesk.com/elon-musk-says-spacex-holds-bitcoin-at-b-word-conference

[gaz5]

I think it's definitely the case the people buying that rumour moved price a little in the morning, but there's also a technical pattern on the chart that was playing out at the same time which was the initial reversal from 29k and that's why it didn't fall back when he didn't say Tesla would accept BTC like people (not me) thought he would and rumour bought.

It's currently in a descending channel on the 4H timescale with hidden bearish divergence over several days.

Nothings for sure, obviously, but I'm holding in cash at the moment anticipating another drop in the next week or so, which I think will find support between 24-27k on BTC in a fairly large liquidity pool.

I have a few Alts I want to buy at those prices for long term hold (into next year) and a couple of short term trades I'll take if that plays out as well.

[strichener]

4 hours ago, gaz5 said:

It doesn't swing on his comments.

There hasn't been a single comment from him yet that didn't come after price had already broken on one direction of the other, including yesterday, where price was playing out the double bottom reversal from the day before after a long term support zone had been broken (30033-31115).

I'm no BTC Maxi (I don't actually own any BTC) but I know charts.

It's a fallacy that Elon moves price with comments. The only thing that moves price is money.

What moves money and therefore price is sentiment.  The quarter when Tesla bought $1.5bln BTC, they sold 10% of it for over $100m profit which was more money than they made selling cars.

Meanwhile the swings I am talking about aren't necessarily changes in chart direction it is more the large increase or decrease in price that immediately follows his comments.  The only single factor that has influenced price more over the last few months was when China banned bitcoin mining.

 

 

 

[gaz5]

What moves money and therefore price is sentiment.  The quarter when Tesla bought $1.5bln BTC, they sold 10% of it for over $100m profit which was more money than they made selling cars.
Meanwhile the swings I am talking about aren't necessarily changes in chart direction it is more the large increase or decrease in price that immediately follows his comments.  The only single factor that has influenced price more over the last few months was when China banned bitcoin mining.
 
 
 

Respectfully disagree.

I'm a technicals guy, so I only use sentiment for extreme fear and extreme greed because those are the points markets trend to reverse on people and being contrarian there is profitable.

The drop in May played out from a rising wedge on the BTC daily and Elon tweeted AFTER that wedge had both broken and retested to confirm a downtrend. Then when it reached its perfect technical target it caught all the over leveraged greed and a swathe of liquidations pushed the price much further down such was the over leveraged nature of the market (a definite issue)

When he tweeted on the way up, it was just after the wave 4 corrective down and into the 5 wave structure. They accumulated heavily there (at the office range it's at now). It was always going higher for wave 5 from there and it reached a perfect Fib extension for a wave 5 before the wedge played out. That wedge and the liquidation event created an ABC correction, normal for the end of a 5 wave impulse, which is still ongoing in C at the moment (as part of a larger wave 4 in a 5 wave market macro).

Its a chicken and egg argument. Technical Analysis peeps (like me) will tell you that sentiment is a result of charts and price action. The charts drive the sentiment.

Non technical analysis peeps will say sentiment drives markets.

All I can tell you it's that from a technical analysis perspective crypto works no differently from stocks and Forex. All the things I look for there, I look for here, and they work just the same.

So from my perspective, having been a skeptic for years, I've actually entered the market to see what it's all about and prove my negative thesis. I can say, as a market participant now, I was wrong. If crypto isn't a worthwhile asset class for trading/investment, neither are equities or Forex, from my experience.

Is it a higher risk asset class, absolutely, which is why people 100% exposed here are playing with fire. But I've made more from Crypto in 5 months than I have from equities in 5 years. There's reward that goes with this risk, if you can manage the risk appropriately.

[strichener]

5 hours ago, gaz5 said:

Respectfully disagree.

I'm a technicals guy, so I only use sentiment for extreme fear and extreme greed because those are the points markets trend to reverse on people and being contrarian there is profitable.

The drop in May played out from a rising wedge on the BTC daily and Elon tweeted AFTER that wedge had both broken and retested to confirm a downtrend. Then when it reached its perfect technical target it caught all the over leveraged greed and a swathe of liquidations pushed the price much further down such was the over leveraged nature of the market (a definite issue)

When he tweeted on the way up, it was just after the wave 4 corrective down and into the 5 wave structure. They accumulated heavily there (at the office range it's at now). It was always going higher for wave 5 from there and it reached a perfect Fib extension for a wave 5 before the wedge played out. That wedge and the liquidation event created an ABC correction, normal for the end of a 5 wave impulse, which is still ongoing in C at the moment (as part of a larger wave 4 in a 5 wave market macro).

Its a chicken and egg argument. Technical Analysis peeps (like me) will tell you that sentiment is a result of charts and price action. The charts drive the sentiment.

Non technical analysis peeps will say sentiment drives markets.

All I can tell you it's that from a technical analysis perspective crypto works no differently from stocks and Forex. All the things I look for there, I look for here, and they work just the same.

So from my perspective, having been a skeptic for years, I've actually entered the market to see what it's all about and prove my negative thesis. I can say, as a market participant now, I was wrong. If crypto isn't a worthwhile asset class for trading/investment, neither are equities or Forex, from my experience.

Is it a higher risk asset class, absolutely, which is why people 100% exposed here are playing with fire. But I've made more from Crypto in 5 months than I have from equities in 5 years. There's reward that goes with this risk, if you can manage the risk appropriately.

I am not going to argue with you on charting as it isn't something that I use for my investments.  I doubt that the majority of people investing in BTC even have a scooby about Fibonacci ratios or cup and handle tbh.  

I am sure that the technical charting on BTC is similar to Forex or equities but the difference is that the law makers have not yet made the right noises about using it as a means of payment and many of the larger financial institutions are keeping out of the market or actively discouraging their high worth clients from investing in crypto.

In terms of regulation it is still rather wild west and you are really putting your faith in the trading exchanges which has already seen a few high profile fraud and money laundering cases where investors had no protection whatsoever.

[gaz5]

I am not going to argue with you on charting as it isn't something that I use for my investments.  I doubt that the majority of people investing in BTC even have a scooby about Fibonacci ratios or cup and handle tbh.  
I am sure that the technical charting on BTC is similar to Forex or equities but the difference is that the law makers have not yet made the right noises about using it as a means of payment and many of the larger financial institutions are keeping out of the market or actively discouraging their high worth clients from investing in crypto.
In terms of regulation it is still rather wild west and you are really putting your faith in the trading exchanges which has already seen a few high profile fraud and money laundering cases where investors had no protection whatsoever.

Won't argue with much of that.

Larger investment houses are coming on board (JP Morgan just today announced they were opening up BTC to their investment customers) but as with most large investment houses they don't buy the market, they buy OTC. So they don't have huge impact on spot price unless they want to. And you're right they're still in the minority.

There are a number of regulated exchanges, though the largest (Binance) isn't obviously and have drawn the regulatory gaze of late. Though that is more for their use of regulated products (Options, Futures and Stock tokens which are essentially securities) rather than any issue with Cryptocurrency itself.

There are definitely things you need to do in this market that you don't in ForEx or Equities. Like I only have 1 broker in those markets, for trading and investing (in stock, you don't invest in ForEx obvs, just trade it). I have 7 crypto broker accounts with capital split between them all and I split my assets between my own private wallets (multiple) so I have custody of a large percentage of it while staking the rest with various DeFi providers for the significant interests on offer.

You're right that the majority who invest in crypto don't have a clue about technical analysis, but the same is true of equities. Doesn't make either any less legitimate as investment asset class.

I think Crypto gets a very bad reputation and I myself bought into that for years. My thoughts now, having been engrossed in it for going on 7 months, is that the narrative is one of fear because finance types finally see how big a threat Crypto and specifically DeFi is to their futures.

I've gone from completely against crypto to fully drinking the Kool Aid because I took the time to challenge what I thought I knew, based on what I'd been hearing for years and found it to be almost entirely false.

I work in traditional finance and have done for 20+ years. So I didn't expect to find what I have. But having found it, the only stupid thing I could do now is ignore it. A calculated risk over the next 5 years could change my life forever and that's a calculated risk I'm willing to take based on what I've found in the Crypto world.

That said, it's still only 10-20% of my overall portfolio, so I'm hedged outside of Crypto if it all goes wrong (and it's only as high as 10-20% because of its returns versus the rest this year).

People 100% in crypto are definitely taking a risk too big for my appetite.

[SANTAN]

My alt coins have awoken with a vengeance this morning. 

[iron mike python]

Just a warning to anyone with a lot of money and a non KYC account on Binance they are dropping the daily withdrawal limit from 2BTC to 0.06BTC which is a major drop off. Looks like I will only be using DEX's in future.

[gaz5]

Just a warning to anyone with a lot of money and a non KYC account on Binance they are dropping the daily withdrawal limit from 2BTC to 0.06BTC which is a major drop off. Looks like I will only be using DEX's in future.

Don't think all these recent announcements about KYC withdrawals, reduced leverage limits, a higher bar for entry to margin etc are a coincidence with the announcements due tomorrow from Congress around regulation.

I'm mostly off Binance entirely now. Few small holdings and my trading capital as they have the best liquidity.

[Bairnardo]

Does anyone use coinmetro?  Having a shite timentrying to deposit. Only thing I havent tried is linking my bank account but its giving me old man fear

Eta debit and credit cards declined by coinbase too. Fucks going on.....

[gaz5]

Does anyone use coinmetro?  Having a shite timentrying to deposit. Only thing I havent tried is linking my bank account but its giving me old man fear

Eta debit and credit cards declined by coinbase too. Fucks going on.....

May well be your bank. They're getting quite uppitty in deciding what people can and can't spend their money on.

Bank is it?

And literally no one is shocked that they're deciding you can't spend it on services competing with theirs outside of the traditional finance system to "protect their customers".

The same customers they're more than happy to allow to withdraw their life savings and throw it on red in a casino. Or spend it all on fags and booze or allow to over leverage on loans and mortgages.

Uh, huh, for "your protection" stopping you spending your money. Sure.

[Bairnardo]

May well be your bank. They're getting quite uppitty in deciding what people can and can't spend their money on.

Bank is it?

And literally no one is shocked that they're deciding you can't spend it on services competing with theirs outside of the traditional finance system to "protect their customers".

The same customers they're more than happy to allow to withdraw their life savings and throw it on red in a casino. Or spend it all on fags and booze or allow to over leverage on loans and mortgages.

Uh, huh, for "your protection" stopping you spending your money. Sure.

Bank of Scotland. Started today with coinmetro and coinbase not working, but then they decided to text me an authentication code when I tried to buy lunch for the kids earlier, and then declined the transaction anyway. Seething.

[Zetterlund]

Last time I went to send money from my bank (Clydesdale/Virgin Money) to Coinbase, they declined it and I had to phone them to answer some questions before they allowed it to go through. This was despite me using Coinbase since 2017.

Then just this week, I got an email informing me I can no longer use my Tesco credit card to buy any anything crypto-related. For my own protection of course.

On a related note, Virgin Money have also recently introduced an extra step when sending money in their mobile app, where you have to select the reason for the transfer from a list. Sending to family/friends, paying for goods or services, paying a bill. making an investment etc. I guess volunteering this information is the first step on the road to central bank digital currencies and absolute financial surveillance.

[gaz5]

Bank of Scotland. Started today with coinmetro and coinbase not working, but then they decided to text me an authentication code when I tried to buy lunch for the kids earlier, and then declined the transaction anyway. Seething.

Shit, that's my bank. I don't but with card though because of the fees. That's a lot of crypto to miss out on. I tend to faster payment transfer fiat into the exchange.

That better still work!

[Cardinal Richelieu]

On 27/07/2021 at 11:36, keithmaclroz said:

Why? What happened to your alt coins?

Kudos for actually putting a bit more effort into your alias. You even posted on Black and White Army. 

But cheerio all the same. 

[Bairnardo]

7 hours ago, gaz5 said:

Shit, that's my bank. I don't but with card though because of the fees. That's a lot of crypto to miss out on. I tend to faster payment transfer fiat into the exchange.

That better still work!

I managed to transfer straight in to coinbase eventually so all good. Still fucked off with thier stupid verification messages though. Caused me two crabbit weans due to the delay in getting their lunch

 

Anyway, its Quant I have bought into. Recommended by a friend who I suspect knows nothing of crypto but I like a punt 

[gaz5]

I managed to transfer straight in to coinbase eventually so all good. Still fucked off with thier stupid verification messages though. Caused me two crabbit weans due to the delay in getting their lunch [emoji23]
 
Anyway, its Quant I have bought into. Recommended by a friend who I suspect knows nothing of crypto but I like a punt 

IMO that's a great buy.

I was waiting for it to come down to my target buy last week but I missed it by a few dollars ($64 was my target).

I'll pick it up if BTC goes for one more go at the bottom of this range it's in. If not, I'll pick it up on the bear.

Excellent project IMO.

[Bairnardo]

3 hours ago, gaz5 said:

IMO that's a great buy.

I was waiting for it to come down to my target buy last week but I missed it by a few dollars ($64 was my target).

I'll pick it up if BTC goes for one more go at the bottom of this range it's in. If not, I'll pick it up on the bear.

Excellent project IMO.

I got in at $84. Maybe expensicve but up on that ever since so maybe not. Not loads atm, just want to ensure im not getting roasted off my pal if it goes BTC mental. 

[SANTAN]

Beautiful morning.