North Korea ...again

[bennett]

It's obvious that the supreme leader has been on the sesh for the last few weeks, as we've all done before.

 

 

[Guest JTS98]

1 minute ago, bennett said:

It's obvious that the supreme leader has been on the sesh for the last few weeks, as we've all done before.

 

 

From the state of the boy, I reckon he's been on many a sesh for most of his life.

[bendan]

15 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

Yes, but there are resistance movements in the North. And they have contact with defectors outside the country. There is no chance the North Koreans allow rumours like this to get moving if they have the chance to stop them.

Important to remember, stopping them would not look like bowing to foreign pressure. Business as usual stops the rumours. Kim opening a factory, or calling someone abroad, or giving a speech, or whatever. If any of these things could have been done, they would have been.

Can you think of any reason why they'd allow him to be radio silence for so long? How is it to their advantage?

You're right that it's happened before, but only when there have been problems.

My guesses would be 1) He's maybe had the covid. 2) He possibly had a cold or flu or something that could have looked like the covid. 3) Heart surgery or some such thing. 4) An attempted coup which has been foiled.

There is no way the North Koreans have been sitting quite happily for the last few weeks while outsiders speculate that the man their entire regime is built around is dead or close to death while easily able to stop it. Absolutely no way.

All of this is generally fair, but the Koreans often do things exactly in this way - we don't really know why they do that. From our perspective it's ridiculous, but the one thing you can say with a fair degree of certainty is that they generally don't share our perspective on things.

Edited May 2, 2020 by bendan

[Guest JTS98]

8 minutes ago, bendan said:

All of this is generally fair, but the Koreans often do things exactly in this way - we don't really know why they do that. From our perspective it's ridiculous, but the one thing you can say with a fair degree of certainty is that they generally don't share our perspective on things.

Not quite a true slant on things.

They act in ways that annoy the rest of the world, but they are also consistently rational.

They ramp up the 'look at us we'll fucking kill every c**t in Seoul and Tokyo' rhetoric when they want something and then go a bit more cuddly just after that to be sure of getting what they want. Kim's recent dance with Trump being just the latest example.

Their moves are not crazy and they take great care to push as far as they can get away with, but not do anything that endangers them. Because if this, they're now in a more or less unassailable position regarding external enemies.

Allowing their external enemies to perceive weakness where none existed while giving potential encouragement to anti-regime gossips and more within the country would be the first irrational thing they'd done. It doesn't fit with how they normally behave.

Edited May 2, 2020 by JTS98

[bendan]

1 minute ago, JTS98 said:

 

Allowing their external enemies to perceive weakness where none existed while giving potential encouragement to anti-regime gossips and more within the country would be the first irrational thing they'd done. It doesn't fit with how they normally behave.

Well I don't agree. I'm very sure they will never accept the agenda being set by the western media. As usual, this episode has made much of the foreign press look ridiculous, and confirmed, as if we didn't know already, that they actually have no clue what's happening in the country. I think by not immediately responding to the rumours they've had a decent result here.

[Guest JTS98]

3 minutes ago, bendan said:

Well I don't agree. I'm very sure they will never accept the agenda being set by the western media. As usual, this episode has made much of the foreign press look ridiculous, and confirmed, as if we didn't know already, that they actually have no clue what's happening in the country. I think by not immediately responding to the rumours they've had a decent result here.

That would only be true if the foreign press ever widely claimed to know what was happening in North Korea. But nobody does.

Also, the reputation of the foreign press is of far less importance to the North Korean regime than the view of its external political enemies.

While nothing happened this time, a situation where there seems to be instability at the top is precisely the kind of thing that would push the Americans or the Japanese (but probably not the South Koreans) to seriously check to see if they had a window to intervene. This would be a stupid thing to do, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't be done. North Korea knows that.

This kind of event opens the door to uncertainty, which the North Korean regime does not want in the context of its own grip on power.

North Korea knows it would ultimately lose any war with its enemies. Everything it does at all times is to project power and deny vulnerability. Making the foreign media look foolish does not factor into this. They have no reason to care about that whatsoever.

[bendan]

10 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

That would only be true if the foreign press ever widely claimed to know what was happening in North Korea. But nobody does.

Also, the reputation of the foreign press is of far less importance to the North Korean regime than the view of its external political enemies.

While nothing happened this time, a situation where there seems to be instability at the top is precisely the kind of thing that would push the Americans or the Japanese (but probably not the South Koreans) to seriously check to see if they had a window to intervene. This would be a stupid thing to do, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't be done. North Korea knows that.

This kind of event opens the door to uncertainty, which the North Korean regime does not want in the context of its own grip on power.

North Korea knows it would ultimately lose any war with its enemies. Everything it does at all times is to project power and deny vulnerability. Making the foreign media look foolish does not factor into this. They have no reason to care about that whatsoever.

The foreign press is forever making completely or largely unsubstantiated claims about the country. That does not go unnoticed in Pyongyang.

I don't think they're deliberately trying to make the foreign media look foolish - they manage to do that all by themselves - but it's not an unwelcome outcome. The main philosophy of the Korean regime, if they have one, is of choosing their own way of doing things without reacting to any outside pressure or influence. They can be really obtuse about that point at times.

[Guest JTS98]

12 minutes ago, bendan said:

The foreign press is forever making completely or largely unsubstantiated claims about the country. That does not go unnoticed in Pyongyang.

I don't think they're deliberately trying to make the foreign media look foolish - they manage to do that all by themselves - but it's not an unwelcome outcome. The main philosophy of the Korean regime, if they have one, is of choosing their own way of doing things without reacting to any outside pressure or influence. They can be really obtuse about that point at times.

No. It's not. It's the survival of the Kim regime. That is their priority over all else.

I'm not sure why you think the foreign media are of concern to Kim. What Fox, CNN, the BBC etc say is of no importance to the North Korean regime. They answer to no electorate, these outlets don't broadcast to North Korea, they have no power.

The media tries to portray their own contribution as being important. Of course, that's self-serving for them. But it's fantasy. In the real world, the foreign media means nothing to the North Korean regime. It's irrelevant.

All North Korea cares about is 'Does action X make the survival of the regime more or less likely?'. That's it.

Having questions linger for weeks over the leader's health or, even worse, over his grip on power, makes the survival of the regime less likely. It's really very simple.

NK knows it is being watched by its enemies constantly. It knows that events like this just make America, SK, and Japan probe more deeply. You can bet your baws they've been pressing feverishly behind the scenes in the last couple of weeks to find out what's been going on. It is absolutely not in North Korea's interests to provoke that. Perception of weakness or vulnerability is potentially fatal for them.

North Korea has got to the position it is in by being utterly rational in its dealings with the outside world. There is absolutely no way they have let considerations such as pointless games with the foreign media have any influence on how they have handled whatever situation it is that has led to Kim being absent for weeks. It would be an amateurish thing to do, and the North Koreans have proven themselves to be far from amateurish.

It would be a ludicrous risk taken for no reason and wholly out of character.

Edited May 2, 2020 by JTS98

[bendan]

Just now, JTS98 said:

 

I'm not sure why you think the foreign media are of concern to Kim. What Fox, CNN, the BBC etc say is of no importance to the North Korean regime. They answer to no electorate, these outlets don't broadcast to North Korea, they have no power.

 

I basically agree with you on this - it's probably why they don't bother responding to speculation. But given that you can see this, why do you then think they must respond and show he's alive? I don't believe people in north Korea start wildly speculating because KJU hasn't opened a factory for a couple of weeks. His dad was frequently MIA over the years, so it's par for the course.

[Guest JTS98]

13 minutes ago, bendan said:

I basically agree with you on this - it's probably why they don't bother responding to speculation. But given that you can see this, 1) why do you then think they must respond and show he's alive? 3) I don't believe people in north Korea start wildly speculating because KJU hasn't opened a factory for a couple of weeks. 2) His dad was frequently MIA over the years, so it's par for the course.

1) Because they very much want the governments and generals of America, Japan, and South Korea to know that he is alive and well and fully in control.

They do not want those three countries to doubt this for a second.

They couldn't care less what the media thinks or what you and I think about his health and grip on power. But they care very deeply what their immediate enemies think. They cannot afford to look vulnerable and allow an attack on them to look even remotely feasible. They would lose.

2) You do realise that his da had a string of health problems? That's precisely the point.

3) We actually do know from defectors that the Kim family is a source of great gossip and speculation in North Korea.

Edited May 2, 2020 by JTS98

[Jacksgranda]

F*** me, can we not get somebody to mediate between these two?

[Savage Henry]

F*** me, can we not get somebody to mediate between these two?

Everyone is an epidemiologist/security specialist/political scientist these days.

[Guest JTS98]

It's a thread about North Korea. What are we meant to post about?

[Turkmenbashi]

Idk. Kim Jong-un's sister wid or widnae?

(btw I was actually finding the discussion quite interesting even if going round in circles)

Edited May 2, 2020 by Turkmenbashi

[Jacksgranda]

3 minutes ago, Turkmenbashi said:

Idk. Kim Jong-un's sister wid or widnae?

(btw I was actually finding the discussion quite interesting even if going round in circles)

So was I, tbh. I know very little about North Korea, and even less about the political machinations therein. Know slightly more now after the last couple of pages!

[bendan]

56 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

 

3) We actually do know from defectors that the Kim family is a source of great gossip and speculation in North Korea.

I'm not sure I believe that. I lived in Pyongyang in 2001/2002 and I agree that gossip and speculation is massive there - it was basically the only way for the population to get news - but gossip and speculation about the Kim family seemed like it was completely off limits.

[Turkmenbashi]

11 minutes ago, bendan said:

I'm not sure I believe that. I lived in Pyongyang in 2001/2002 and I agree that gossip and speculation is massive there - it was basically the only way for the population to get news - but gossip and speculation about the Kim family seemed like it was completely off limits.

Assuming you are not North Korean would locals really gossip to a foreigner like you?

[dirty dingus]

This is an interesting thread but surely they'll be some spys within the government working against the regime, maybe all the duff stuff put out in the press acts as good cover for them. Mind you I know f**k all about North Korea and the only thin I know about Kim is that he is too wee to go on the big rollercoaster at the pleasure beach

[bendan]

9 minutes ago, Turkmenbashi said:

Assuming you are not North Korean would locals really gossip to a foreigner like you?

Ordinary locals wouldn't even talk to me, never mind gossip, but the (trusted) ones who were allowed to work with you loved a gossip. 

Edit to add: I just didn't get the impression that any kind of speculation about the Kims would be a good idea for the locals to do amongst themselves.

Edited May 2, 2020 by bendan

[peasy23]