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Independence - how would you vote?

Independence - how would you vote  

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No, you're all right, the No campaign are going to get 60% of the electorate on their side. :lol:

But they don't have 60% in the polls. And that's not what you said.

Why would polls that have been landslide bad against you suddenly move to Yes in the months leading up to the referendum. what's going to have changed to cause polls relatively consistent at 33% or so for years to become 50%+ ?

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I kind of understand not wanting to panic, but as renton says, when does the button get hit?

My own views are that the SNP leadership aren't stupid, and know they couldn't win the referendum from the start.

They didn't want this referendum, or at least Salmond didn't want it now. He's a gradualist. They've probably made the best out of the situation, but I think his strategy was to have at least another term as a (strong) minority, calling for significant extra tax powers.

You don't have a clue about how the world works, do you?

If they release it now, then it gets lost in the noise. Just look at the way your Unionist pals obscured the GERS figures released recently.

If they release it later, then it gets more attention, it will have been more highly built up, and it means that any boost they get from it will come later in the campaign when it is most useful. This is not difficult stuff. Honestly, you've really disgraced yourself on this thread in recent weeks.

Yawn.

It will get plenty attention if they release this information now. If it's not well enough thought through, that's their problem.

It's obviously a strategy to have the White Paper released in November. More of an impact for the Yes campaign? Less time for the No campaign propaganda? I don't know, but time will tell.

Once again, I suspect it's either a lousy strategy or evidence of indecision/failing to have thrashed out these things properly in advance among the SNP leadership.

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But they don't have 60% in the polls. And that's not what you said.

Why would polls that have been landslide bad against you suddenly move to Yes in the months leading up to the referendum. what's going to have changed to cause polls relatively consistent at 33% or so for years to become 50%+ ?

Sorry, do you believe that 50+% of the electorate will vote no? If not, why not? This has already been discussed many times, so I don't see the need to go round and round again, especially given that you've already tacitly rowed back one claim of yours today.

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So just to check, all those people who claim the polls aren't going to shift, do you all think that 60% of the electorate will vote no?

The smart money is on 55:45 in favour of the No vote, within 2 or 3%.

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It will get plenty attention if they release this information now. If it's not well enough thought through, that's their problem.

You really have no idea, do you? How did you get this far in life with such little connection to reality?

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The smart money is on 55:45 in favour of the No vote, within 2 or 3%.

That would require a shift of 10% to yes. When is that going to happen?

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So just to check, all those people who claim the polls aren't going to shift, do you all think that 60% of the electorate will vote no?

Easily.

Christ, at the moment that would mean 40% voting yes, which would be spun as a minor victory for the SNP.

Unlike HB, I believe that the Scottish people can be persuaded. There is no reason, no intrinsic reason why Scots, alone in this world, would not want the same sovereign rights as others. No earthly reason why they would not want better democracy, with a vote that counts for something.

it's about finding that right combination fo words that will convince people.

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In other news, post independence, a poll in the Herald shows overwhelming support for keeping the pound! :lol:

The YouGov poll details are

"Do you think an independent Scotland should or should not keep the pound?"

An independent Scotland should keep the pound: 66%

An independent Scotland should not keep the pound: 19%

Don't know: 15%

YouGov, sampled 1-3 May, 1,006 adults in Scotland

It shows overwhelming majorities across supporters of all political parties:

TORY VOTERS

"Do you think an independent Scotland should or should not keep the pound?"

An independent Scotland should keep the pound: 62%

An independent Scotland should not keep the pound: 27%

Don't know: 11%

LABOUR VOTERS

"Do you think an independent Scotland should or should not keep the pound?"

An independent Scotland should keep the pound: 71%

An independent Scotland should not keep the pound: 19%

Don't know: 10%

LIB DEM VOTERS

"Do you think an independent Scotland should or should not keep the pound?"

An independent Scotland should keep the pound: 64%

An independent Scotland should not keep the pound: 28%

Don't know: 8%

SNP VOTERS

"Do you think an independent Scotland should or should not keep the pound?"

An independent Scotland should keep the pound: 69%

An independent Scotland should not keep the pound: 18%

Don't know: 13%

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That would require a shift of 10% to yes. When is that going to happen?

Probably some point within the next 16 months.

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In other news, post independence, a poll in the Herald shows overwhelming support for keeping the pound! :lol:

Which just reinforces the point that the recent currency debate didn't hammer the Yes scotland campaign, and in fact is a policy that should've been attractive to the majority of people, and yet the polls didn't move.

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Easily.

Christ, at the moment that would mean 40% voting yes, which would be spun as a minor victory for the SNP.

I'd be surprised if much more than 60% of the electorate voted full stop. I've said it before, not all of the No voters are going to vote, whereas the Yes voters are. Plus all polling (discussed on here previously) has shown that that No vote is softer. We don't need to switch them to yes, we just have to make them apathetic.

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What a meaningless poll. It didn't even explain what was meant by "keeping the pound". Note no mention of currency union, no mention of pegged Scots pound, no mention of unilateral adoption of GBP; nothing. No actual differentiation over what the ACTUAL currency debate is about.

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Which just reinforces the point that the recent currency debate didn't hammer the Yes scotland campaign, and in fact is a policy that should've been attractive to the majority of people, and yet the polls didn't move.

But it was hammered incredibly negatively. Properly hammered, complete with lies, mistruths, and ignoring reality (see Lib, Ad.). And yet, as you say, the polls didn't move. This particular storm has been ridden out, and now they have figures to show that keeping the pound is popular.

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Anyway, I am actually supposed to be working, so I should give spamming this thread a rest! :lol:

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Sorry, do you believe that 50+% of the electorate will vote no?

Of those who vote, the final result will be around 53:47 I expect. Give or take a few percent. Maybe nearer to Ad Lib's 55:45 perhaps to be honest.

Probably depends on the weather.

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I'd be surprised if much more than 60% of the electorate voted full stop. I've said it before, not all of the No voters are going to vote, whereas the Yes voters are. Plus all polling (discussed on here previously) has shown that that No vote is softer. We don't need to switch them to yes, we just have to make them apathetic.

We are talking at cross purposes, I was talking about likely to vote, and I still wouldn't surprised if that were the result. Even if we took the 'certains' from the Ipsos Mori at 74% for the Nos, but said that 100% of the vote came out for yes, the final result would still be soemthing like 42/57 split against.

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I think if you offered them it just now the SNP would take a 52:48 No victory or even 53:47 maybe.

It would be an interesting question to ask Salmond actually, pretending that it would go no further.

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Of those who vote, the final result will be around 53:47 I expect. Give or take a few percent. Maybe nearer to Ad Lib's 55:45 perhaps to be honest.

Probably depends on the weather.

And yet you ask ME to justify why I think the numbers will change? 53:47, give or take a few percent, is "50:50". That is a massive shift, so given you seem to disagree with me, where do YOU think that shift will come from?

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And yet you ask ME to justify why I think the numbers will change? 53:47, give or take a few percent, is "50:50". That is a massive shift, so given you seem to disagree with me, where do YOU think that shift will come from?

I think there will be a lot of complacency from the No voters. We know that No will win, so when it comes down to it a lot of people will say "f**k it, 2/3rds of people are voting No anyway, I will watch The Big Bang Theory instead".

I think more Yes voters will feel that every vote is a prisoner. No voters won't be so bothered. That's why it will be closer than it would if we assumed a mythical 100% everyone being pressganged into voting referendum. Which would be nearer 60:40 than 53:47.

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And I asked you to justify why there would be particular movement in the polls in the months leading up to the referendum.

Why will there be?

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