Independence - how would you vote?

[Ad Lib]

xbl, elections aren't the same as referendums.

[H_B]

If you go back to see previous movements like this our way, you'll notice a complete lack of dancing on the streets, because we are realists. The Unionists have claimed that this was the "worst" week, and that the Yes campaign was smashed, and yet, as you point out, no real movement. That is the best they have, and they've not made any more gains.

They don't need to make any more gains. They have a massive lead. The No campaign will be expecting their polling numbers to decline between now and the referendum.

No will be absolutely delighted with the current numbers. Particularly considering the pisspoor campaign they are running.

And I have never voted Labour in my life. I'm not sure in what way they are "my team". "My team" won the last Scottish Election, given that I voted SNP.

[xbl]

xbl, elections aren't the same as referendums.

Really? So are you saying that we shouldn't turn this into an SNP thing? Because that would be quite breathtaking hypocrisy on your part.

[Ad Lib]

Really? So are you saying that we shouldn't turn this into an SNP thing? Because that would be quite breathtaking hypocrisy on your part.

No, I'm not saying that.

I'm saying referendums aren't the same as elections. Because campaigns on specific issues that take place over a protracted period of time rather than a broad set of issues, campaigned over in a relatively short period of time, are less susceptible to significant and sudden and sustained changes in polling behaviour.

[xbl]

No, I'm not saying that.

I'm saying referendums aren't the same as elections. Because campaigns on specific issues that take place over a protracted period of time rather than a broad set of issues, campaigned over in a relatively short period of time, are less susceptible to significant and sudden and sustained changes in polling behaviour.

As demonstrated by?

[Ad Lib]

As demonstrated by?

Other referendums and elections in this and other countries.

[renton]

If you go back to see previous movements like this our way, you'll notice a complete lack of dancing on the streets, because we are realists. The Unionists have claimed that this was the "worst" week, and that the Yes campaign was smashed, and yet, as you point out, no real movement. That is the best they have, and they've not made any more gains.

Again, Labour held a solid lead for month after month right up until the final debates, and look what happened there...HB's team took a smashing!

Edited to add, so does his post mean that HB is going to withdraw his claim about it being a "huge" movement. I see a spot of rowing back happening here.

So at what point are Yes going to make gains? If the big Sturm und Drang of policy announcements just leads to stalemate, as appears to be the case, well Bitter Together can afford that stalemate. So how are yes scotland going to start to make up that deficit?

[H_B]

No, I'm not saying that.

I'm saying referendums aren't the same as elections. Because campaigns on specific issues that take place over a protracted period of time rather than a broad set of issues, campaigned over in a relatively short period of time, are less susceptible to significant and sudden and sustained changes in polling behaviour.

They are also less personified. What individual politicians do and don't do in the lead up to an election can influence things quite a lot. See Neil Kinnock for example.

For a single issue referendum, that's far less of an issue.

[Ad Lib]

So at what point are Yes going to make gains? If the big Sturm und Drang of policy announcements just leads to stalemate, as appears to be the case, well Bitter Together can afford that stalemate. So how are yes scotland going to start to make up that deficit.

Well quite. YesScotland are like the "Good feeling at Cappielow" thread. They can lick their wounds about taking more points from Thistle than vice versa, but second is still nowhere.

[Colkitto]

My own feeling is the SNP/Yes campaign are keeping their powder dry until the White Paper is released in November. That's when we will get the fine detail of what independence means.

That's when polls will shift dramatically either way. All the Unionists are doing right now with these polls is to draw the Yes camp into a negative campaign and release more information ahead of the White Paper so the impact is lessened on the official release.

[xbl]

So at what point are Yes going to make gains? If the big Sturm und Drang of policy announcements just leads to stalemate, as appears to be the case, well Bitter Together can afford that stalemate. So how are yes scotland going to start to make up that deficit?

As Mr Rational says, pretty much nobody is actually expecting the polls to shift until the last couple of months. I'm the exception as I expect to see a small trend away from no as the year goes on. But the No campaign have played their two biggest cards far too early, and in future, they will get more apathy and diminishing returns from them.

The Yes campaign has got itself organised and seems to be starting to build up its activity, but the biggest comment at Yes Scotland meetings (from undecided voters) is why they aren't on the media more. So I expect the biggest change to come when they media organisations have to actually start covering both sides of the argument by law.

[xbl]

They are also less personified. What individual politicians do and don't do in the lead up to an election can influence things quite a lot. See Neil Kinnock for example.

For a single issue referendum, that's far less of an issue.

Yep, as I thought, breathtaking hypocrisy all round from our pet lawyers, both of whom are obsessed by Alex Salmond, as is the No Campaign.

[Ad Lib]

There's not really a compelling reason to have all that information in a White Paper, though. Unless the SNP are so incompetent that they haven't decided what they want to put in it yet, these are proposals they can put in the public domain at any time of their choosing. It's not as though this can become actual legislation because it relates to reserved competences, and it would be a UK Act of Parliament that facilitates all these independence transitions. All a White Paper does is allow formal Parliamentary scrutiny (note they've got a majority on all the Committees so this is basically a whitewash for a White paper).

This information can be made public now if the SNP know it. There is no good reason why they need "impact" for these things later rather than now.

[renton]

As Mr Rational says, pretty much nobody is actually expecting the polls to shift until the last couple of months. I'm the exception as I expect to see a small trend away from no as the year goes on. But the No campaign have played their two biggest cards far too early, and in future, they will get more apathy and diminishing returns from them.

The Yes campaign has got itself organised and seems to be starting to build up its activity, but the biggest comment at Yes Scotland meetings (from undecided voters) is why they aren't on the media more. So I expect the biggest change to come when they media organisations have to actually start covering both sides of the argument by law.

and I just don't understand the rationale for why that might be. If you are waiting for the media to be forced into equal coverage, it'll be too late. I don't think people change their minds over night, I think it's something that changes gradually over time. I also think that if we are comfortable going into the last month and a half double digits behind, that the media narative will already be into post mortem mode: The notion that YS will be able to get it's policies listened too in a positive light at that stage is nonsensical.

[H_B]

Well quite. YesScotland are like the "Good feeling at Cappielow" thread. They can lick their wounds about taking more points from Thistle than vice versa, but second is still nowhere.

I kindof understand not wanting to panic, but as renton says, when does the button get hit?

My own views are that the SNP leadership aren't stupid, and know they couldn't win the referendum from the start.

[xbl]

This information can be made public now if the SNP know it. There is no good reason why they need "impact" for these things later rather than now.

You don't have a clue about how the world works, do you?

If they release it now, then it gets lost in the noise. Just look at the way your Unionist pals obscured the GERS figures released recently.

If they release it later, then it gets more attention, it will have been more highly built up, and it means that any boost they get from it will come later in the campaign when it is most useful. This is not difficult stuff. Honestly, you've really disgraced yourself on this thread in recent weeks.

[H_B]

As Mr Rational says, pretty much nobody is actually expecting the polls to shift until the last couple of months.

Why would they shift in the last couple of months?

[Colkitto]

There's not really a compelling reason to have all that information in a White Paper, though. Unless the SNP are so incompetent that they haven't decided what they want to put in it yet, these are proposals they can put in the public domain at any time of their choosing. It's not as though this can become actual legislation because it relates to reserved competences, and it would be a UK Act of Parliament that facilitates all these independence transitions. All a White Paper does is allow formal Parliamentary scrutiny (note they've got a majority on all the Committees so this is basically a whitewash for a White paper).

This information can be made public now if the SNP know it. There is no good reason why they need "impact" for these things later rather than now.

It's obviously a strategy to have the White Paper released in November. More of an impact for the Yes campaign? Less time for the No campaign propaganda? I don't know, but time will tell.

[xbl]

No, you're all right, the No campaign are going to get 60% of the electorate on their side.

[Ad Lib]

Yep, as I thought, breathtaking hypocrisy all round from our pet lawyers, both of whom are obsessed by Alex Salmond, as is the No Campaign.

I'm not obsessed by Alex Salmond.

We didn't say that personalities have no effect. What H_B said is what they say or do in the run-up to a referendum has a less pronounced effect on the result than with elections.

I really don't see what you think is controversial about this. There's a reason that, in 2007, the SNP used the slogan on the list "Alex Salmond for First Minister". Elections are, in a more accentuated manner, about individuals, short-term valence politics, than are referendums. Alex Salmond will not feature at the core of either campaign's tactics in the final 4 months of the campaign, nor will any other politician.