Independence - how would you vote?

[H_B]

Not really, because it would depend on the SNP gaining a further mandate in 2016 to push for a further referendum. Which is probably unlikely given our electoral system. Until there is at least another major party that supports independence, which apart from building in a much better chance of a parliamentary majority in favour of the notion, but would add more wieght to the idea of independence itself, then this would seem to the only shot at it.

Maybe. But with politics being so cyclical, a further SNP majority in the SP in the next 15-20 years isn't particularly unlikely.

That's really the issue here though for the Nationalists. And it's why they have no chance of winning. And never did have. Their election win was never a mandate for Independence. And it was never the culmination of a groundswell of opinion for their referendum either. It gave them a mandate to hold it, but unfortunately for them, plenty of people who voted for them in the SP election are going to vote No. Because they preferred them to Labour in the mini-election, but have no interest in secession.

I could easily see the SNP being smashed in the referendum then winning a majority in the next Scottish election. In fact, they (obviously) have a much better chance of winning the 2016 election as a majority government than they do winning the referendum.

[Pink Freud]

Just to check with the unionists and apologists, we saw no devolution after the 1979 referendum. How much did we lose that by?

This. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see that if the gap narrows, little whispers about jam tomorrow being the main thrust of the No campaign's argument. And then watch as other priorities get in the way.

[Ad Lib]

1979.

See also a significant chunk of the reasons I'm voting Yes.

[ICTChris]

Again, unsure if this has been posted already but more Ipsos-MORI data shows that in terms of approval ratings, Alex Salmond is being out performed by Nicola Sturgeon.

I can't get the chart to send to my email, will post it when I can.

Here you go

[xbl]

This. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see that if the gap narrows, little whispers about jam tomorrow being the main thrust of the No campaign's argument. And then watch as other priorities get in the way.

Yep. We're already at the "Jam tomorrow" stage for some reason. We all (those of us who aren't idiots) know that if we lose in 2014, then thats the end of the line. No more devolution, no more scraps, no more little changes here and there. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised to see powers being returned.

Oh, and difference between me and the Unionists? I can acknowledge polling data that isn't ideal rather than hiding. Of course, it does put HB in a bit of a quandary. He described this as a "huge movement", so fine, lets go with that. This just means it is offsetting previous "huge movements" to independence by his definition, and he has long claimed that there have been no big movements, let alone "huge". So either he is guilty here of "hugely" overblown rhetoric, or everything he has said previously about there being no movement to independence was wrong. Whats it to be?

[Mr Rational]

Good, wee Nicky is the future and is a much less decisive figure especially with the female vote which we need to start picking up.

I see she's first up against the govener general in a debate on STV, of course the usual suspects on here will say she has done superbly or crap as per usual. I expect 'acrylic heed' to get an airing or two.

[Colkitto]

Yep. We're already at the "Jam tomorrow" stage for some reason. We all (those of us who aren't idiots) know that if we lose in 2014, then thats the end of the line. No more devolution, no more scraps, no more little changes here and there. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised to see powers being returned.

Oh, and difference between me and the Unionists? I can acknowledge polling data that isn't ideal rather than hiding. Of course, it does put HB in a bit of a quandary. He described this as a "huge movement", so fine, lets go with that. This just means it is offsetting previous "huge movements" to independence by his definition, and he has long claimed that there have been no big movements, let alone "huge". So either he is guilty here of "hugely" overblown rhetoric, or everything he has said previously about there being no movement to independence was wrong. Whats it to be?

The Times headline reckons a 3% drop in support for independence means that support is "crumbling"

A 3% error means things stay the same or we could be on 37% right now. Point I'm making is 3% is not a guide to a "crumbling support" for independence

[ICTChris]

Good, wee Nicky is the future and is a much less decisive figure especially with the female vote which we need to start picking up.

I see she's first up against the govener general in a debate on STV, of course the usual suspects on here will say she has done superbly or crap as per usual. I expect 'acrylic heed' to get an airing or two.

I assume you mean divisive

Apparently, I haven't seen them specifically, the figures for the female vote show that a large majority of women are opposed to independence, still. That's the real battleground, Sturgeon is obviously who the SNP/Yes campaign are relying on to help them there. Also, if the vote is No,. you have to assume ALex Salmond will stand down and she'll take over.

[xbl]

The Times headline reckons a 3% drop in support for independence means that support is "crumbling"

A 3% error means things stay the same or we could be on 37% right now. Point I'm making is 3% is not a guide to a "crumbling support" for independence

Or if it IS, then all it is doing is offsetting a "surge" in independence. The Unionists can't have it both ways.

[renton]

The Times headline reckons a 3% drop in support for independence means that support is "crumbling"

A 3% error means things stay the same or we could be on 37% right now. Point I'm making is 3% is not a guide to a "crumbling support" for independence

The salient point here is that HB has a point, I don't think support is crumbling, however, there is no real movement either way at the moment. If we aren't at or around 40%, and with the NO vote somewhere in the low 50s/high 40s by the end of the year, then there must be an issue in building support.

[Mr Rational]

I assume you mean divisive

Apparently, I haven't seen them specifically, the figures for the female vote show that a large majority of women are opposed to independence, still. That's the real battleground, Sturgeon is obviously who the SNP/Yes campaign are relying on to help them there. Also, if the vote is No,. you have to assume ALex Salmond will stand down and she'll take over.

Aye, bloody iPhone....

[Mr Rational]

I'm happy going into 14 behind. I don't expect the polls to move until 6 weeks to the vote....

[xbl]

The salient point here is that HB has a point, I don't think support is crumbling, however, there is no real movement either way at the moment. If we aren't at or around 40%, and with the NO vote somewhere in the low 50s/high 40s by the end of the year, then there must be an issue in building support.

Are you sure he has a point?

Yes -3

No +4

That's a huge movement.

[renton]

I'm happy going into 14 behind. I don't expect the polls to move until 6 weeks to the vote....

Why? I know that, for example, the Quebec polls evnetually narrowed close in and the reuslt was fairly narrow, but that's not necessarily always going to be the case.

[renton]

Are you sure he has a point?

Taking away from his point scoring exercises with you, those polls aren't moving. As much as the Times and the Guardian would like to say that it's crumbling, and as much as the same swing our way would have Newsnet dancing on the streets, those polls ain't really moving, haven't moved for a while.

[H_B]

The salient point here is that HB has a point, I don't think support is crumbling, however, there is no real movement either way at the moment. If we aren't at or around 40%, and with the NO vote somewhere in the low 50s/high 40s by the end of the year, then there must be an issue in building support.

I'm not follower of polls. I don't believe them to be particularly instructive. The Quebec polls fluctuated quite a lot during their campaign.

But their secessionists did gain a lead in the polls at one point. And they still lost.

As you note, the problem isn't that the polls change by a few percent from time to time, it's that Yes has no traction. 500 days out and they are going absolutely nowhere.

[xbl]

Why? I know that, for example, the Quebec polls evnetually narrowed close in and the reuslt was fairly narrow, but that's not necessarily always going to be the case.

Look at the 2011 election. Labour were 10 points ahead as of March, and had held a lead this size for a year.

[H_B]

Taking away from his point scoring exercises with you, those polls aren't moving. As much as the Times and the Guardian would like to say that it's crumbling, and as much as the same swing our way would have Newsnet dancing on the streets, those polls ain't really moving, haven't moved for a while.

Quite. The point about this poll is purely that it makes xbl look silly. Beyond that, it has no significance.

The lead No has is so great that even big swings like 4 or 5 percent aren't significant. And there is no trend that helps Yes. It's been surprisingly static. Or perhaps not surprisingly really, given that that is the level of support for Independence generally.

[xbl]

Taking away from his point scoring exercises with you, those polls aren't moving. As much as the Times and the Guardian would like to say that it's crumbling, and as much as the same swing our way would have Newsnet dancing on the streets, those polls ain't really moving, haven't moved for a while.

If you go back to see previous movements like this our way, you'll notice a complete lack of dancing on the streets, because we are realists. The Unionists have claimed that this was the "worst" week, and that the Yes campaign was smashed, and yet, as you point out, no real movement. That is the best they have, and they've not made any more gains.

Again, Labour held a solid lead for month after month right up until the final debates, and look what happened there...HB's team took a smashing!

Edited to add, so does his post mean that HB is going to withdraw his claim about it being a "huge" movement. I see a spot of rowing back happening here.

[Ad Lib]

I assume you mean divisive

Apparently, I haven't seen them specifically, the figures for the female vote show that a large majority of women are opposed to independence, still. That's the real battleground, Sturgeon is obviously who the SNP/Yes campaign are relying on to help them there. Also, if the vote is No,. you have to assume ALex Salmond will stand down and she'll take over.

Tables

Charts

Headline figures

Infographics

Women are 23% in favour, 66% against. Compares against 39% to 52% among men.