Independence - how would you vote?

[AMMjag]

Shall we give back all of our hospitals then?

[#yes2014]

#yes2014 #dece

[LinkinFighter]

How unlucky are we in Scotland, more oil to weigh on our minds. It really is shite being Scottish.

[DeeGas]

Any Scot who claims Unionist Scots are less Scottish or even anti Scottish are talking out of their ass'.

Blatant.

[DeeGas]

Alex Salmond named the Herald's Scottish Politician of Year

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-24953907

Congratulations,Scotlands First w****r.

[LinkinFighter]

So xenophobic it's not even funny.

[Colkitto]

[ForeverSinging]

One thing that really annoys me is British Nationalists who consider Scottish Nationalism abhorrent and then don't even stop to consider that their own nationalism is no better.

I'm not talking about raging rangers fans or anything, but generally rational and intelligent people. Half the time they don't even notice their own nationalism and when you point it out to them they're genuinely perplexed.

If you're voting no because you're against nationalism in general, fair enough, that's kinda noble and kinda cool in a way. If you're voting no because you don't like Scottish nationalism but you're a flag waving, moron who buys into all the jolly old Britannia nonsense then you really need to have a think and then decide not to go down to the polling booth during the September of next year.

[ArabianKnight]

One thing that really annoys me is British Nationalists who consider Scottish Nationalism abhorrent and then don't even stop to consider that their own nationalism is no better.

I'm not talking about raging rangers fans or anything, but generally rational and intelligent people. Half the time they don't even notice their own nationalism and when you point it out to them they're genuinely perplexed.

If you're voting no because you're against nationalism in general, fair enough, that's kinda noble and kinda cool in a way. If you're voting no because you don't like Scottish nationalism but you're a flag waving, moron who buys into all the jolly old Britannia nonsense then you really need to have a think and then decide not to go down to the polling booth during the September of next year.

Great point, I think nationalism is an alright thing, although I think the grubbier ethnic type nationalism is more than a little distasteful. I much prefer the civic minded nationalism of the Yes campaign that is all inclusive and not the xenophobic exclusionary nonsense from BetterTogether.

[Lex]

PnB's quote function is acting up, so in reply to Lex's specific points, I would respond as follows

Where to start with this one. For starters i see that - for some reason - you've decided to list only Sevco games for last season when they were odds on when they didn't win.

Yes. If you recall, either you or thepundit (I can't be bothered searching out thespecific post) suggested that we cancel the referendum because the bookies had "No" at such short odds (1/8).

In response, I compiled a list, based upon The Rangers league fixtures last season, showing the games that they failed to win.

I did this as a fun way of illustrating that long shots bucked the odds-on favourites in 11/36 league games last season.

I specifically pointed out the 4 occasions when Sevco failed to win when they were at shorter odds than 1/8.

I also provided a link to the full list of fixtures played and odds for each game - you only had to click the link

For fairness purposes, why didn't you list games when they were 1/8 odds on or less where they did win? Again, let's take it further. Why not list all football games in Scotland where a team was 1/8 or less on and didn't win, and compare the list to when teams were 1/8 on and did win?

The conclusion we could draw from that list would be that teams who are 1/8 on or less to win win the vast majority of the time. When applied to the referendum we would conclude that although the yes vote has a chance to win, it's extremely unlikely to happen.

But you (or thepundit) had argued that we should cancel the referendum because "No" are currently the odds-on favourites. Now you are agreeing that "Yes" can possibly win. Can't you see the contradiction?

However, i note you've picked league games. Therefore the whole analogy is inherently flawed. You're picking league games which have 3 possible outcomes (W,L,D). You can't really compare odds being offered there with odds being offered on a referendum which has 2 possible outcomes (Y OR N).

Yes I can. I'll not bore you wirh the maths, but if Rangers are 1/10 to win, the odds of them not winning are around 5/1 (assuming an overround of about 8%)

If you were going to compare it to a football match the only relevant comparison would be something like a one off league cup tie. Not on the odds of the game itself of course, but on the odds to progress to the next round. That only has 2 possible outcomes, as does the referendum. For example if you look at the odds for the upcoming Man City V Leicester capital one cup quarter final. Man City are 1/2 for the match and 1/7 to qualify for the semis.

Irrelevant padding. As you can see from my example above, it is quite simple to work out odds against something if you know the odds for the opposite event.

Anyway, amongst all the padding and flailing around, you forgot to answer the actual question I asked. Here it is again:

In the following 4 games last season, The Rangers were at shorter odds than 1/8

26th August 2012 v Berwick

5th January 2013 v Elgin

26th January 2013 v Montrose

9th March 2013 v Annan

Did you (& the pundit) consider these games to be certain Rangers victories before kick-off? If not, why do you consider the referendum result to be a foregone conclusion?

So after all that typing and messing up of the quote function... your point is: Things that are really, really likely to happen, sometimes don't happen...? Well thanks for this unexpected revelation.

Moving back to sanity, what do yes voters make of ex SNP deputy leader Jim Sillars comments on Salmonds currency plans?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10117015/Alex-Salmond-snookered-without-Plan-B-on-currency.html

“Assuming independence, for two separate countries to form a currency union requires a treaty. A treaty requires both to agree. If one says no, there can be no treaty and no currency union,” he wrote.“The second flaw is political. The ‘sterling policy’ is a gift to the Coalition Government, as they can snooker it at any time during the referendum debate, and there is nothing Alex can do about it.”

He said he hoped Mr Salmond had paid heed to nationalist economists who have called for a separate currency and a Plan B will be included in the White Paper. '

Do yes voters agree with this prominent Nationalists view on the currency situation? Does Salmond need a plan b?

[xbl]

So why haven't the British said no? We are using the pound. The only debate is whether the British would like to join us or not.

Also we have covered this. Plan b is to use the pound.

[Lex]

So why haven't the British said no? We are using the pound. The only debate is whether the British would like to join us or not.

The only debate is whether you get a currency union or not, and both Osbourne (chancellor) and Balls (shadow chancellor) have said this is unlikely. Even if you did get a union Osbourne has warned that a likely condition of that union would be Westminster having say in Scottish taxation and spending. Is this the independence yes voters want? Our taxation and spending being influenced by a parliament where we aren't represented?

It's no wonder the Greens (who back independence) and several prominent nationalists (Sillars being one of many) are crying out for a plan B. Can Salmond deliver one?

[Baxter Parp]

 

 

The only debate is whether you get a currency union or not, and both Osbourne (chancellor) and Balls (shadow chancellor) have said this is unlikely.  Even if you did get a union Osbourne has warned that a likely condition of that union would be Westminster having say in Scottish taxation and spending. Is this the independence yes voters want?  Our taxation and spending being influenced by a parliament where we aren't represented?

 

It's no wonder the Greens (who back independence) and several prominent nationalists (Sillars being one of many) are crying out for a plan B.  Can Salmond deliver one?

Pish. If the plan was a new currency, unionists would moan, if the plan was to join the Euro, unionists would moan. There is no acceptable plan as far as a future currency goes.

http://archive.is/Mduse

[xbl]

Plan B, we use the pound. Im amazed* that you believe a word osborne says. He has already been caught out lying ( not "allowed" to use the pound? ), so why believe him now?

[YOGI IS GOD]

Frightened rabbit brothers will be voting Yes http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/arts-ents/music/hop-and-glory-the-rise-of-frightened-rabbit.22694492

[lichtgilphead]

your point is: Things that are really, really likely to happen, sometimes don't happen...? Well thanks for this unexpected revelation.

I only had to point out the obvious due to your ridiculous point that the referendum should be cancelled because "No" was 1/8 on at a bookies.

With regard to your question on the currency, what is your opinion as to why neither Osbourne nor Balls have explicitly ruled a currency union out? Please consider the rUK's balance of payments deficit in your answer.

[Lex]

Pish. If the plan was a new currency, unionists would moan, if the plan was to join the Euro, unionists would moan. There is no acceptable plan as far as a future currency goes.

http://archive.is/Mduse

This isn't unionists moaning, this is nationalists moaning. Do you agree with your fellow nationalists concerns? If not, why not?

Plan B, we use the pound. Im amazed* that you believe a word osborne says. He has already been caught out lying ( not "allowed" to use the pound? ), so why believe him now?

He is the most senior figure in the country when it comes currency. He's going to have a big say in the future of an independent Scotland, and his shadow agrees with him on this.

Yes or no question for nationalists:

Would you like Scotland to retain representation in the parliament where key fiscal policy decisions are made regarding our currency?

I say yes, what do you say? Yes or no question remember.

[Baxter Parp]

 

This isn't unionists moaning, this is nationalists moaning.  Do you agree with your fellow nationalists concerns?  If not, why not?

 

The Scottish Green Party has different policies from the Scottish National Party, well, duh. I have no idea why you think this is a telling point.

[Lex]

I only had to point out the obvious due to your ridiculous point that the referendum should be cancelled because "No" was 1/8 on at a bookies.

With regard to your question on the currency, what is your opinion as to why neither Osbourne nor Balls have explicitly ruled a currency union out? Please consider the rUK's balance of payments deficit in your answer.

You're making things up now. I have never said once that the referendum should be cancelled. I am a huge supporter of this referendum and have been since day one, i can't wait for it and i can't wait to vote no.

I want the Scottish people to send out an message at home and abroad that we - as a people - emphatically reject the notion of independence. And i believe we will. It's like when you're drawn against your rivals at home in the cup. You don't want to just go out and beat them, you won't to go out and give them a right hammering, to put them back in their box, back in their place. I believe the yes vote is not going to be just beaten in September, i believe it's going to be routed.

As for your second question, although i can't speak for nor do i support either, i would imagine Balls and/or Osbourne can't rule anything out until the event. It would be debated in the English/Welsh/Northern Irish parliament and voted on without our representation. What both have said is that given what they know and given the current apparent opposition to the idea, it's unlikely it would be approved.

[Lex]

The Scottish Green Party has different policies from the Scottish National Party, well, duh. I have no idea why you think this is a telling point.

They're nationalists! They're voting yes! What has party politics got to do with the price of cheese? I'm asking whether you agree with your fellow nationalists concerns?