Independence - how would you vote?

[xbl]

Of those who vote, the final result will be around 53:47 I expect. Give or take a few percent. Maybe nearer to Ad Lib's 55:45 perhaps to be honest.

Probably depends on the weather.

And yet you ask ME to justify why I think the numbers will change? 53:47, give or take a few percent, is "50:50". That is a massive shift, so given you seem to disagree with me, where do YOU think that shift will come from?

[H_B]

And yet you ask ME to justify why I think the numbers will change? 53:47, give or take a few percent, is "50:50". That is a massive shift, so given you seem to disagree with me, where do YOU think that shift will come from?

I think there will be a lot of complacency from the No voters. We know that No will win, so when it comes down to it a lot of people will say "f**k it, 2/3rds of people are voting No anyway, I will watch The Big Bang Theory instead".

I think more Yes voters will feel that every vote is a prisoner. No voters won't be so bothered. That's why it will be closer than it would if we assumed a mythical 100% everyone being pressganged into voting referendum. Which would be nearer 60:40 than 53:47.

[H_B]

And I asked you to justify why there would be particular movement in the polls in the months leading up to the referendum.

Why will there be?

[Baxter Parp]

Which just reinforces the point that the recent currency debate didn't hammer the Yes scotland campaign, and in fact is a policy that should've been attractive to the majority of people, and yet the polls didn't move.

Your methodology is flawed, dear boy. A policy that was flogged as a complete disaster for an independent Scotland has not moved the polls beyond the 3 percentage points of accuracy. Furthermore, Ipsos Mori have been polling the No vote higher than every other pollster for the past year and a half. Which may reflect on their methodology (landline polling).

Of course, there's only one poll that matters, and it's a long way off yet. When the UK government finally gets around to telling us what would happen in the event of a yes vote, all will become clear, I suspect.

[Baxter Parp]

And I asked you to justify why there would be particular movement in the polls in the months leading up to the referendum.

Why will there be?

Because the No campaign will finally run out of scare stories.

[Mr Rational]

Cause we have a mystery ray gun that will beam telepathic messages into everyones noddle.

[xbl]

I think there will be a lot of complacency from the No voters. We know that No will win, so when it comes down to it a lot of people will say "f**k it, 2/3rds of people are voting No anyway, I will watch The Big Bang Theory instead".

I think more Yes voters will feel that every vote is a prisoner. No voters won't be so bothered. That's why it will be closer than it would if we assumed a mythical 100% everyone being pressganged into voting referendum. Which would be nearer 60:40 than 53:47.

I've assumed the same thing, which is why I think that No vote is so much softer than the polls show. I'm not worried about it being a crushing or a humiliation or anything like that, because I genuinely believe that if we top 40% in the polls, then we've won, because that No vote is so apathetic. So roll on the end of the year!

And I asked you to justify why there would be particular movement in the polls in the months leading up to the referendum.

Why will there be?

Both sides of the campaign getting an airing, the No campaign having no momentum due to firing all their ammo far too early, people facing up to just what a No vote would mean, scare stories being easily disproven, high tory visibility, Labour not going all that well in the polls, the rise of UKIP, and natural "outing" of themselves by people who have been leaning that way but haven't wanted to say. Many reasons.

[Ad Lib]

I've assumed the same thing, which is why I think that No vote is so much softer than the polls show. I'm not worried about it being a crushing or a humiliation or anything like that, because I genuinely believe that if we top 40% in the polls, then we've won, because that No vote is so apathetic. So roll on the end of the year!

I think the point is rather that if the Yes campaign are sitting at 40% or better, the GOTV machine for BT will go into overdrive. H_B's point is the apathy will be driven out of the perception of unbeatability, rather than inherent apathy about the result or the Union.

Both sides of the campaign getting an airing, the No campaign having no momentum due to firing all their ammo far too early, people facing up to just what a No vote would mean, scare stories being easily disproven, high tory visibility, Labour not going all that well in the polls, the rise of UKIP, and natural "outing" of themselves by people who have been leaning that way but haven't wanted to say. Many reasons.

If this is all true, why hasn't the Yes vote made concrete gains yet? Better Together don't NEED momentum. They're like Thistle after the Airdrie game. They can drop points slowly and consistently and still come home relatively comfortably. They don't need to keep their powder dry until the last few weeks; they just need to stop Yes getting enough momentum now to make a challenge credible in 12 months' time. And so far they seem to be succeeding.

[Mr Rational]

Fair assessment, no have their tactics spot on and as a short term strategy it's working.

We are playing the long game and only time will tell who is right.

I'm pinning my hopes on the ray gun.

[xbl]

I think the point is rather that if the Yes campaign are sitting at 40% or better, the GOTV machine for BT will go into overdrive. H_B's point is the apathy will be driven out of the perception of unbeatability, rather than inherent apathy about the result or the Union.If this is all true, why hasn't the Yes vote made concrete gains yet? Better Together don't NEED momentum. They're like Thistle after the Airdrie game. They can drop points slowly and consistently and still come home relatively comfortably. They don't need to keep their powder dry until the last few weeks; they just need to stop Yes getting enough momentum now to make a challenge credible in 12 months' time. And so far they seem to be succeeding.

How do you propose that they get a fair hearing in the media? Or even a halfway reasonable hearing?

[Ad Lib]

How do you propose that they get a fair hearing in the media? Or even a halfway reasonable hearing?

I don't. Not sure what that has to do with what I've just said though.

YesScotland will get every bit as unfair a hearing nearer the referendum, if not worse, than they are now.

[Mr Rational]

Folk on the doorstep aren't daft, they know the media is just about 100% behind no.

There's an appetite for information from both sides however and eventually no will have to start spelling out what their vision of Scotland would be in the event of remaining.

[renton]

Cause we have a mystery ray gun that will beam telepathic messages into everyones noddle.

thank Christ for that, I was beginning to think there was no plan....

[xbl]

I don't. Not sure what that has to do with what I've just said though.

YesScotland will get every bit as unfair a hearing nearer the referendum, if not worse, than they are now.

Given that I listed it as a key reason as to why I think the polls will shift nearer the election rather than now, it is pretty fucking relevant, isn't it?

As for the coverage, as the BBC have stated themselves, they are bound by regulations when it gets to the referendum period and they have to cover the Yes campaign. As it stands, your precious BBC "don't feel the need to be balanced". They won't be able to continue to ignore the Yes campaign as the referendum approaches.

[Ad Lib]

Given that I listed it as a key reason as to why I think the polls will shift nearer the election rather than now, it is pretty fucking relevant, isn't it?

As for the coverage, as the BBC have stated themselves, they are bound by regulations when it gets to the referendum period and they have to cover the Yes campaign. As it stands, your precious BBC "don't feel the need to be balanced". They won't be able to continue to ignore the Yes campaign as the referendum approaches.

Yes they will.

[Mr Rational]

Just as well we have more activists on the ground then.

And ad-lib, stop saying 'they' when it comes to yes or Indy supporters. Yer one of us, it's 'we' even if you don't agree with what's being said.

[Ad Lib]

Just as well we have more activists on the ground then.

And ad-lib, stop saying 'they' when it comes to yes or Indy supporters. Yer one of us, it's 'we' even if you don't agree with what's being said.

I was saying "they" to refer to "the BBC".

Besides which, Yes Scotland and the SNP are "they". I am not a member or affiliate of either organisation.

[Mr Rational]

Ahh. Carry on McDuff

[the jambo-rocker]

I was saying "they" to refer to "the BBC".

Besides which, Yes Scotland and the SNP are "they". I am not a member or affiliate of either organisation.

So if you are not an affiliate with either party, but still assuming you are voting yes when you seem to be an active campaigner in your beliefs, why not?

[Ad Lib]

So if you are not an affiliate with either party, but still assuming you are voting yes when you seem to be an active campaigner in your beliefs, why not?

I fundamentally disagree with most of the SNP's platform and I don't like YesScotland as I think they're a front for them, over which there is no meaningful contrary influence and token representation by others. Same as BT is a Labour front with Tory money.