Independence - how would you vote?

[monkfish]

I never said it wasn't a big vote winner (it isn't though, I agree). But in conjunction with other aspects of the SNP's prospective handling of the process issues, and what that means more broadly for their credibility as a good negotiating team for Scotland's needs, it is a push factor away from the Yes campaign for the indifferent, the neutral and the anti-independence. SNP credibility is a vote loser. That's the bigger picture.

Have you any evidence that this issue is turning people off independence? The only scenario I can see having a real negative effect is if the SNP committed to leaving the pound. The current situation (staying with pound for interim) will satisfy the majority.

I really think the number of people who care about the details is very small. It might be an important issue, but the electorate don't care about it the way you do.

[sons superhero]

Representative from UKIP on radio Scotland saying they would " Get rid of all MSP's and replace them with MP's who would sit in both Parliaments". WTF

[xbl]

Have you any evidence that this issue is turning people off independence? The only scenario I can see having a real negative effect is if the SNP committed to leaving the pound. The current situation (staying with pound for interim) will satisfy the majority.

I really think the number of people who care about the details is very small. It might be an important issue, but the electorate don't care about it the way you do.

Yep, I've been arguing the same thing.

[DeeGas]

and

"and" that's it.

[Ad Lib]

Have you any evidence that this issue is turning people off independence? The only scenario I can see having a real negative effect is if the SNP committed to leaving the pound. The current situation (staying with pound for interim) will satisfy the majority.

I really think the number of people who care about the details is very small. It might be an important issue, but the electorate don't care about it the way you do.

No, I don't have evidence. There has been no polling on "does the SNP's stance on the currency make you more or less likely to vote in favour of independence". Anecdotally, I know several people, pro indy, undecided and pro union, who have taken the view that the SNP position on the currency is self-defeating. I'm not suggesting that it's the determinative issue here. I'm saying that it feeds into a broader (in many respects, correct) narrative that the SNP don't know what they're talking about and that they're not to be trusted to facilitate the transition on our behalf. And because lots of people still equate the SNP's broader vision with independence generally, that narrative, and all its causes, will disincline quite a few undecided voters. If Yes wins, it will almost certainly be very close (I'd be extremely surprised to see it go more than 55%-45% in favour). On a 70% turnout, that means the referendum is turning on fewer than 150k votes. When it's that close, everything about the SNP's approach to the transition has to be as close to bang on as possible.

Maybe the electorate don't care about it the way I do. But as you say, that doesn't mean it's not important. There's more to this debate and this referendum than massaging the egos of the SNP's big brass and getting them off the hook for being really shite on policy.

[sons superhero]

"and" that's it.

Thanks for that

[xbl]

Right, and you think that forcing the SNP into a u turn of a policy a decade old will not create a narrative of the snp not knowing what they are talking about?

This is idiotic.

[xbl]

Incidentally, on the last thread, Ad Lib also said that Alex Salmond being cleared 6 from 6 would also feed into the narrative that they were not to be trusted. So there we have it. In Lib Dem land, sticking to established and sensible policy and being cleared of wrongdoing feeds into a narrative of the SNP not being trustworthy or knowing what they are doing.

How can this be solved? By a humiliating U-Turn based on media pressure, backtracking on all established policy, and changing from a policy which isn't a vote loser, to one that is. Am I the only one that thinks this is horrendous traffic accident survivor level of idiocy?

[Ad Lib]

Right, and you think that forcing the SNP into a u turn of a policy a decade old will not create a narrative of the snp not knowing what they are talking about?

This is idiotic.

A U-turn to a better policy is never a bad U-turn. The narrative is already bad. Take the hit now, accept the credibility gap now, and use the next year restoring it.

Incidentally, on the last thread, Ad Lib also said that Alex Salmond being cleared 6 from 6 would also feed into the narrative that they were not to be trusted.

What are you on about?

So there we have it. In Lib Dem land, sticking to established and sensible policy and being cleared of wrongdoing feeds into a narrative of the SNP not being trustworthy or knowing what they are doing.

Currency union isn't sensible policy. Spending tens of thousands of pounds to cover up the non-existence of legal advice isn't sensible policy (that includes the UK government, btw).

How can this be solved? By a humiliating U-Turn based on media pressure, backtracking on all established policy, and changing from a policy which isn't a vote loser, to one that is. Am I the only one that thinks this is horrendous traffic accident survivor level of idiocy?

A U-turn to a better policy is always justified. If the SNP don't trust themselves to make the best arguments, that's their problem, not Yes Scotland's.

A Scottish currency, giving us all the powers to do what we please, including to peg to the pound, is not a vote loser. It's an illustration of precisely the advantages of being a sovereign state.

[xbl]

This is embarrassing. We're going to be using the pound. Accept it or vote no.

By the way, a new currency may lose votes, sticking with the pound initially will not lose votes. If you can't see this, then you deserve to be classed with Reynard and Tryfield.

[Ad Lib]

This is embarrassing. We're going to be using the pound. Accept it or vote no.

By the way, a new currency may lose votes, sticking with the pound initially will not lose votes. If you can't see this, then you deserve to be classed with Reynard and Tryfield.

Define "using the pound". Define "sticking with the pound".

What is your evidence for a new currency losing votes?

[xbl]

Define "using the pound". Define "sticking with the pound".

What is your evidence for a new currency losing votes?

You know what, there isn't any point in this, is there? You're just another Tryfield. You have no idea how the real world operates, do you?

[Ad Lib]

You know what, there isn't any point in this, is there? You're just another Tryfield. You have no idea how the real world operates, do you?

^^^

Can't define "using the pound"

^^^

Can't define "sticking with the pound"

^^^

Can't provide evidence that a new currency losing votes

[ForzaDundee]

What's the Lib Dems policy on currency when Shetland sucede?

[xbl]

^^^

Can't define "using the pound"

^^^

Can't define "sticking with the pound"

^^^

Can't provide evidence that a new currency losing votes

You're a complete idiot on this issue. It is genuinely embarrassing. You're clearly in the right party after all.

[Paulo Sergio]

Liberal Democrats.

[Ad Lib]

What's the Lib Dems policy on currency when Shetland sucede?

They've not got a policy. For the same reason that they don't have a policy on the currency "when" Scotland secedes. Because their policy is not for secession.

[Tryfield]

This is embarrassing. We're going to be using the pound. Accept it or vote no.

By the way, a new currency may lose votes, sticking with the pound initially will not lose votes. If you can't see this, then you deserve to be classed with Reynard and Tryfield.

Have the Welsh agreed to that?

http://www.newsrt.co.uk/news/welsh-fm-reject-scottish-independence-pound-plan-1688279.html

[xbl]

Agreed to what? The Welsh have f**k all say in what currency we use. Which will initially be the pound.

[Enigma]

The pound issue isn't going to make me vote no, not by a long shot. I still think and independent Scottish currency would be the best option for an independent Scotland. I don't think there is much of an argument to say the adopting this on day 1 would be catastrophic and those that argue against this are no worse the "we'd be a third world country" brigade. In the long term it would certainly be the right choice for the Scottish economy. There are plenty of people in the SNP and who support the yes campaign who share this view. The currency issue could become a big debate among those who supported independence in the transitional phase if we vote yes in 2014.

xbl is right that a u-turn would be used against the yes campaign but then so is the current position of the SNP. I don't think being in an informal currency union sends out the right message about the Scottish economy, you just need to look at the countries who are currently in informal currency unions to see why (statelets such as Andorra and Palau, banana republics like Ecuador and El Salvador and war torn basket cases such as Kosovo and East Timor). In the imitate short term I don't think it would be a massive problem. I actually think we would get an independent currency sooner (or at all) if we initially went for an informal, rather than a formal, currency union with rUK. I do think remaining in a currency union, especially informal and to a lesser extent formal, into the long term would become an albatross round the Scottish economy's neck.

If we did enter an informal union and, for example, the Scottish economy became particularly reliant on exports and the pound became particularly strong then we wouldn't have the full means to try and devalue the currency in order to boost our exports. We also wouldn't be able to control interest rates. If the Scottish economy performs differently to the rUK economy this could become a heavy price to pay. I know that is a very negative tone to take but bear in mind that if we had a Scottish currency we would have full power over these control and would be able to use them fully to aid, assist and grow the Scottish economy to it's full prosperous potential.

ETA: I think the SNPs position (seeing as they wont go for the independent currency option) should be something along the lines of "we will initially enter into an informal currency union but will put the issue of currency to the Scottish pubic within XX months of independence". Result = clarity and Osborne and co. can't say "well we won't enter into a formal currency union with you nah nah nah nah nah".