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Was extremely bored tonight and had a nerd moment by working out points to the end of the 27-game season (based on average pts per game won so far)

1. Hearts 60
2. Dunfermline 46
3. Raith 43
4. Dundee 39
5. ICT. 35
6. QoS. 33
7. Ayr. 31
8. Morton. 30
9. Arbroath. 29
10. Alloa. 20

Dont think for a minute it will finish like that, but from a Queens point of view do folk think 30 pts will be enough to avoid the relegation play offs this year?

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22 minutes ago, sidofthesouth said:

Was extremely bored tonight and had a nerd moment by working out points to the end of the 27-game season (based on average pts per game won so far)

1. Hearts 60
2. Dunfermline 46
3. Raith 43
4. Dundee 39
5. ICT. 35
6. QoS. 33
7. Ayr. 31
8. Morton. 30
9. Arbroath. 29
10. Alloa. 20

Dont think for a minute it will finish like that, but from a Queens point of view do folk think 30 pts will be enough to avoid the relegation play offs this year?

Could you do points to end of the season based just on the last 9 games? I think that would have us finishing with 42 points but not sure about other clubs.

Edited by Margaret Thatcher
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1 hour ago, sidofthesouth said:

Was extremely bored tonight and had a nerd moment by working out points to the end of the 27-game season (based on average pts per game won so far)

1. Hearts 60
2. Dunfermline 46
3. Raith 43
4. Dundee 39
5. ICT. 35
6. QoS. 33
7. Ayr. 31
8. Morton. 30
9. Arbroath. 29
10. Alloa. 20

Dont think for a minute it will finish like that, but from a Queens point of view do folk think 30 pts will be enough to avoid the relegation play offs this year?

Don't most teams budget for 40 points from a 36 game season usually as a safety net? So 30 points from 27 matches would appear to be a good safety level.

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17 hours ago, sidofthesouth said:

Was extremely bored tonight and had a nerd moment by working out points to the end of the 27-game season (based on average pts per game won so far)

1. Hearts 60
2. Dunfermline 46
3. Raith 43
4. Dundee 39
5. ICT. 35
6. QoS. 33
7. Ayr. 31
8. Morton. 30
9. Arbroath. 29
10. Alloa. 20

Dont think for a minute it will finish like that, but from a Queens point of view do folk think 30 pts will be enough to avoid the relegation play offs this year?

To be fair the results from last Friday to Saturday were lucky so that’ll  play a big part in that final league table based on PPG. 

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16 hours ago, Margaret Thatcher said:

Could you do points to end of the season based just on the last 9 games? I think that would have us finishing with 42 points but not sure about other clubs.

Of course it's somewhat corrupted because the last 9 games for every club isn't the same rounds of fixtures as some have games in hand, Inverness particularly. Also, our last 9 for instance includes Dundee twice but no game v Dunfermline. And clubs don't have 9 games left so we start faffing about with parts of points. As it stands however, Championship points over last 9 games for each club:

Hearts 17 (=1.89 per game)
QoS 17 (=1.89pg)
Dundee 15 (=1.67pg)
Arbroath 13 (=1.44pg)
Dunfermline 13 (=1.44pg)
Inverness 13 (=1.44pg)
Raith 13 (=1.44pg)
Alloa 8 (0.89pg)
Morton 8 (0.89pg)
Ayr 6 (0.67pg)

So on that basis the extrapolated current table rounded to the nearest point would be:

Hearts 57 pts
Dunfermline 43 pts
Dundee 42 pts
Raith Rovers 41 pts
QoS 40 pts
Inverness 37 pts
Arbroath 33 pts
Morton 28 pts
Ayr United 25 pts
Alloa Athletic 22 pts
 

It's not impossible I've made an error or my source for the last 9 games is wrong (https://thefishy.co.uk/formtable.php?table=11) but I'm not sure how you get us to 42 points. We've got 21 now, we're averaging 1.9 a game almost and we've 10 games to go). Leads to 40 points I think.

Want to make it the last 8 games we'd actually be top of the form table, above Hearts as we'd still have 17 points. They'd drop to 14.

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14 minutes ago, DavidWatt26 said:

Strange they have him cb when he’s played cm the last few games

The article alongside it (https://spfl.co.uk/news/team-of-the-week-47480) does acknowledge this. All 3 of those selected in the back line played in midfield at the weekend.

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46 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

 

It's not impossible I've made an error or my source for the last 9 games is wrong (https://thefishy.co.uk/formtable.php?table=11) but I'm not sure how you get us to 42 points. We've got 21 now, we're averaging 1.9 a game almost and we've 10 games to go). Leads to 40 points I think.

Want to make it the last 8 games we'd actually be top of the form table, above Hearts as we'd still have 17 points. They'd drop to 14.

This is quite good for form tables etc. Lot of other info by clicking the tabs near the top of the page.

https://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=scotland2

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1 hour ago, Skyline Drifter said:

It's not impossible I've made an error or my source for the last 9 games is wrong (https://thefishy.co.uk/formtable.php?table=11) but I'm not sure how you get us to 42 points. We've got 21 now, we're averaging 1.9 a game almost and we've 10 games to go). Leads to 40 points I think.

Want to make it the last 8 games we'd actually be top of the form table, above Hearts as we'd still have 17 points. They'd drop to 14.

Yes, I was trying to cherry pick our winning run, and it was mere coincidence I thought that was nine games long. I must have included Queens Park in my calculation or something like that.

 

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Don't think 40 points in a normal season is always enough. You need to average a little over a point a game.

Saying that we may need to win 4 out of our last 9 games to be sure - on current form that is possible  but that is going some too

Edited by queenslad
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41 minutes ago, Otis Blue said:

Well done big Ayo! 👍

But what exactly does Willie Gibson have to do to get in there too?  He's been outstanding ....... and that strike on Saturday.

think it's 1 player per team Wullie was in last week or the week before am sure.. 

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3 minutes ago, Margaret Thatcher said:

Yes, I was trying to cherry pick our winning run, and it was mere coincidence I thought that was nine games long. I must have included Queens Park in my calculation or something like that.

 

Yeah, that would do it. If you were giving us 3 points for the Scottish Cup win then 20 points in the last 9 equates to 2.2 pts per game which leads to 42 points in total.

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3 minutes ago, queenslad said:

Don't think 40 points in a normal season is always enough. You need to average a little over a point a game.

Sating that we may need to win 4 out of our last 9 games to be sure - on current form that is possible  but that is going some too

I think there's only one season that 40 points wasn't enough but I'd need to check. 40 pts is pretty much always taken as standard survival level. It's a very unlikely side who made 40 points and were relegated. It can happen where one team is marooned and get very few though, leaving everyone else's average a load of points up. In reality, on a 3/4 season, with nobody marooned this year, it would be a surprise if 30 points didn't keep you up but you never know. It's very tight in the this division right now.

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15 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

I think there's only one season that 40 points wasn't enough but I'd need to check. 40 pts is pretty much always taken as standard survival level. It's a very unlikely side who made 40 points and were relegated. It can happen where one team is marooned and get very few though, leaving everyone else's average a load of points up. In reality, on a 3/4 season, with nobody marooned this year, it would be a surprise if 30 points didn't keep you up but you never know. It's very tight in the this division right now.

Also a lot of draws will help to bring down the average.

I find that although 40 points may be enough you sometimes only find that out after the last nervous game of the season has been played out.

 

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