The Queen of the South thread

[renton]

I might be wrong, but sure I read in the Rovers Review that our budget had been set with a view to having crowds back in January, but not set with the expectation of having crowds in October.

So there obviously was some conservative planning going on there.

Edited September 17, 2020 by renton

[Broken Algorithms]

Is this a windup?

The “let’s have a bit of a gamble and push on” strategy destroyed countless clubs over the last twenty years. Comparatively the good times.

Now we have a pandemic, a completely unprecedentedly bad situation for football, the potential for no fans through the turnstile all season.

Two week UK national lockdown rumoured to be in the pipeline today.

Good Luck!

Knock yourself out of you want to believe us offering a couple of two year deals is the same as something like Mileson, Melville or Masterton who all offered wages in excess of the turnover at their respective clubs. Its a complete different situation.

[vikingTON]

16 minutes ago, Broken Algorithms said:

Knock yourself out of you want to believe us offering a couple of two year deals is the same as something like Mileson, Melville or Masterton who all offered wages in excess of the turnover at their respective clubs. Its a complete different situation.

You don't know what your club's turnover will be in 12 months time: nobody in the division does. It's largely dependent on a global pandemic that is not yet under control.

Handing out two year contracts under those circumstances may not be an act of  largesse but it is one of folly that clubs will regret if operating conditions prove to be worse than they expected.

[Alex Nesovic's Barmy Army]

He was absolutely guff

Don't disagree at all. I certainly got carried away with my hopes after his first goal. An entirely forgettable player.

[FrankReynolds]

Here we go. Roll on 6pm

[RandomGuy.]

Youve signed Rohan Ferguson according to the Daily Record. 

[TxRover]

8 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Whit? Is this some kind of wind up? You've gone from fans being allowed to no fans being allowed. No amount of online streaming is going to cover that. I can't believe you've just claimed that Raith's income won't be down. I know you're not stupid, your posts over the last few months show that, so I'm assuming in some way you've typed something you don't really mean.

The League money is obviously higher in a higher division but if you are at the bottom half of it it's nowhere near big enough to make up for the loss of crowds. And you can forget big money from any cup ties.

I’m NOT assuming no crowds in this context. I just know that since Raith moved from -£400,000 ending 2018 to -£200,000 ending 2019, and was still finding improvements in 2020, with our very similar cost structure of signings, as long as there are some crowds the bigger draw of this level should help us reach last year’s income. That is not to suggest we’d do fine with no crowds, I doubt any club will.

Yes, as I’ve agreed before, crowds are the bread and butter below the Premiership, which is why I’m convinced that there has to have been discussions between the clubs regarding what a tipping point would be for both some clubs and the league if crowds (or games) get pushed back. With expenditures under way, the clock is very much ticking.

[19QOS19]

Youve signed Rohan Ferguson according to the Daily Record. 

Aye that's who it is. *Starts shaking that we've signed rather than loaned a Goalkeeper*

[palmy_cammy]

Seems to come with reasonably good pedigree. I’m not sure about his choice of squad number though.

[qos1990]

Seems to come with reasonably good pedigree. I’m not sure about his choice of squad number though.

Really happy with the signing, been looking him up since he got released by Motherwell. Seems to have had a good spell at Linfield and has a fair amount of experience for his age

[palmy_cammy]

39 minutes ago, qos1990 said:

 

Really happy with the signing, been looking him up since he got released by Motherwell. Seems to have had a good spell at Linfield and has a fair amount of experience for his age

 

Well fingers crossed it works out for us, we've seen far too many duds between the sticks in recent times.  I never expected us to get anyone of McCrorie's quality again this season so I had set my expectations very low and hoped that as long as they were better than Stewart it was something at least.

It's strange because all common sense and logic would suggest that an experienced older player would be better suited to goalkeeper, but most of our success stories have been young rookies starting out in the game.  Hopefully Ferguson is another to add to the list.

[19QOS19]

Couple of Airdrie posters have said he wasn't commanding at cross balls. Give it a game and a half before the daggers are out?

[gogs]

Not that I've really heard of Ferguson however seems to be decent and done well at Lingfield so happy with that

[SUPERSOUTH]

On 13/09/2020 at 17:01, SUPERSOUTH said:

Only 3 weeks till first competitive match of the season and we still need 2 fullbacks & a Goalie, surely its time that we got the defence sorted and they got some practice playing together..... 

First piece of that jigsaw sorted tonight with the signing of a very good young Goalie in Rohan Ferguson.  

[Skyline Drifter]

1 hour ago, 19QOS19 said:

Couple of Airdrie posters have said he wasn't commanding at cross balls. Give it a game and a half before the daggers are out?

He was a teenager when he played for Airdrie though. I think its far more relevant he played every game for the Northern Irish champions last year and they very much wanted to keep him. Apparently their fans think highly of him, their officials certainly do. 

Of course that was also true of Alan Martin at Dumbarton. Some people fit some places, not others. We shall see.

[Skyline Drifter]

12 hours ago, callum-ayr said:

Well for a kick off I was talking about cup competitions and league placings. Cameron mare than evidently clear in one of his question and answer forums online about our budget and worst case scenario. We generally do well in the betfred and that allows extra funds to pick up players during early to mid season on a free like the example I’ve given if you read it again. I’d be very surprised if we’ve budgeted on crowds this side of Christmas. You clearly know more than me though. 

But budgeting for worst case league position and first round cup exits is a whole different ball game to not having trading income to at least anywhere near the same extent. I'd be surprised if you have budgeted for crowds this side of Xmas either but there are too many unknowns about the medium term future to already be committing to budgeting beyond Xmas 2021 but thats what you are doing in handing out two year deals. No extra round or two of the Betfred will cover that if crowds are buggered longer term.

11 hours ago, callum-ayr said:

Budgets being down will may be dependant on other revenue streams. For us having AU500 fund as well as the 5 start lottery which puts money into the club is extremely advantageous. Without knowing or being able to view teams finances it really is second guessing. SD made the point of our average crowd being around 1700 so we’d be losing out on that. That wouldn’t really be the case as we had around 1000-1200 season tickets last year so you’re then looking at 500 or so paying and not all will be full paying adults etc. No idea what our current season ticket sales are. 

I pulled a ball park number based on around half your attendances being season ticket holders (maybe its more as you say) and charitably assumed they will all renew which is probably a reach in a situation where they cant attend and some of them will have lost their jobs or will imminently when furlough stops. I'm sure people on your thread were worrying last week about low advance sales. I also factored back for a rough average mix of full paying and concessions. I dont think a £200k hole before streaming will be far away if there are no crowds all season.

As much as I hope streaming works, I do fear that without the physical act of going to a game and no atmosphere on potentially fairly amateur streams then once the novelty wears off there wont be anywhere near the number of paying streams there would be actually attending either and I doubt they will market at more than £10 - £12 max, quite possibly less.

11 hours ago, Mr X said:

Advantageous compared to who? Queens have a successful lottery scheme and have for years. They also have regular income from the Arena, more I would suggest than the AU500 fund brings in.

Unfortunately of course, as encouraging as the development of our off field revenue streams have been in the last few years, the fact is they are pretty much shut now for 6 months too. As good a facility as the Arena is, its still shut and will be till at least October. KGV and Lochmaben are shut too. These arent things that will tide us over if Covid is a long term problem. The lottery is still running but income is inevitably well down with pubs quieter or still closed. Locharbriggs SC which was a big agent announcing last week it has closed for good is not good news. I know at least one other agent of some size stopped due to shielding.

11 hours ago, Broken Algorithms said:

While I'd not be as bold to suggest we'll not be down on our income, we're in a far better league if there's no fans allowed into games. I'd imagine we'll look to open up our streaming to away fans (as you'd expect most teams) and even though we'll lose money on match day revenues, I'd far rather that we're in the Championship with Hearts, Dunfermline and Dundee. Had we been in league one, we'd have been fucked. Instead, you'd expect quite a lot of the fans of fans will pick up one uses passes for away games. It's obvious to say, but this is far more preferential to two bit supports from your Montroses and Peterheads of this world. I think most clubs will benefit in terms of away fans being more likely to purchase streams for trips they might not make (I'd not be inclined to go to a game against Queens away due to travel but I'd be happy to stream it). 

As for our issues in the Summer, there's been no verdict from the arbitration on legal costs as of yet but indications are positives. We initially started the crowdfunder in April based off the willingness of fans to chip in. Obviously, the court cases came into play but if we're covered for those then I'd hazard a guess it would mean we can use resources which had been set aside for any potential loss and use them for our squad. We've offered two year deals to two players and the rest of our signings have been players coming up from England on one year contracts. I'm not suggesting we're flush with cash by any means, but I'd hope we're OK to get through this period.  Given how quickly the situation changes with case numbers then it's impossible to say where we'll be - even if we do end up in difficulty I don't think it's too disingenuous to look back at when we made the signings and think "well it was a different picture with how the cases were at that point". 

Each board will have their own strategy. Some might take a bit more of gamble to see if they can push on. Those that are more conservative might benefit if there's a shut down but also might face relegation if things start improving and they've gone with a weakened squad.  Either way, hopefully turns out ok for the clubs. It's an absolutely brutal situation for people to be in. 

Yes, I acknowledge and agree with pretty much all of that. But its still a gamble with your future to an extent to hand out 2nd year deals to non special players to get them to sign and there's no chance income will be held anywhere close to last year's levels.

10 hours ago, renton said:

I might be wrong, but sure I read in the Rovers Review that our budget had been set with a view to having crowds back in January, but not set with the expectation of having crowds in October.

So there obviously was some conservative planning going on there.

Indeed but as per above, if they arent back by January and you sit with 2 year deals to honour it creates problems. However you only have two and one is Jamie MacDonald which was possibly one thats worth the risk so Raith havent gone too gung ho at all yet. 

5 hours ago, TxRover said:

I’m NOT assuming no crowds in this context. I just know that since Raith moved from -£400,000 ending 2018 to -£200,000 ending 2019, and was still finding improvements in 2020, with our very similar cost structure of signings, as long as there are some crowds the bigger draw of this level should help us reach last year’s income. That is not to suggest we’d do fine with no crowds, I doubt any club will.

Yes, as I’ve agreed before, crowds are the bread and butter below the Premiership, which is why I’m convinced that there has to have been discussions between the clubs regarding what a tipping point would be for both some clubs and the league if crowds (or games) get pushed back. With expenditures under way, the clock is very much ticking.

You can dress it up anyway you like, unless Raith finish top 2 or sell 1000 streams a week you wont be anywhere near last year's income. Of course you also wont have last year's costs so you might improve the bottom line. I am willing to bet good money there have been no discussions about your mythical 'tipping point'. Hell they couldnt even agree to put something in the rules in the summer to declare the way to deal with a shutdown, incomplete season despite the fact its very obviously a high risk possibility. So if it happens again, rather than go to the rule and act accordingly we will have more public bickering and 'woe is me' 'Thistle Family' type bollocks again.

Edited September 17, 2020 by Skyline Drifter

[Scottydog]

6 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

But budgeting for worst case league position and first round cup exits is a whole different ball game to not having trading income to at least anywhere near the same extent. I'd be surprised if you have budgeted for crowds this side of Xmas either but there are too many unknowns about the medium term future to already be committing to budgeting beyond Xmas 2021 but thats what you are doing in handing out two year deals. No extra round or two of the Betfred will cover that if crowds are buggered longer term.

I pulled a ball park number based on around half your attendances being season ticket holders (maybe its more as you say) and charitably assumed they will all renew which is pronably a reach in a situation where they cant attend and some of them will have lost their jobs or will imminently when furlough stops. I'm sure people on your thread were worrying last week about low advance sales. I also factored back for a rough average mix of full paying and concessions. I dont think a £200k hole before strsaming will be far away if there are no crowds all season.

As much as I hope streaming works, I do fesr that without the physical act of going to a game and no atmosphere on potentially fairly amateur streams then once the novelty wears off there wont be anywhere near the number of paying streams there would bd actually sttending either and I doubt thdy will mafket at more thzn £10 - £12 max, quite possibly less.

Unfortunately of course, as encoursging as the development of our off field revenue streams have been in the last few years, the fact is they are pretty much shut now for 6 months too. As good a facility as the Arena is, its still shut and will be till at least October. KGV and Lochmaben are shut too. These arent things that will tide us over if Covid is a long term problem. The lottery is still running but income is inevitably well down with pubs quieter or still closed. Locharbriggs SC which was a big agent announcing last week it has closed for good is not good news. I know at least one other agent of some size stopped due to shielding.

Yes, I acknowledge and agree with pretty much all of that. But its still a gamble with your future to an extent to hand out 2nd year deals to non special players to get them to sign and there's no chance income will be held anywhere close to last year's levels.

Indeed but as per above, if they arent back by January and you sit with 2 year deals to honour it creates problems. However you only have two and one is Jamie MacDonsld which was possibly one thats worth the risk so Raith havent gone too gung ho at all yet. 

You can dress it up anywsy you like, unless Raith finish top 2 or sell 1000 streams a wedk you wont be anywhere near last year's income. Of course you also wont have last year's costs so you might improve the bottom line. I am willing to bet good money there have been no discusdions about your mythical 'tipping point'. Hell they couldnt even agree to put something in the rules in the summer to declare the way to deal with a shutdown, incomplete season despite the fact its very obviously a high risk possibility. So if it happens again, rather than go to the rule and act accordingly we will have more public bickering and 'woe is me' 'Thistle Family' type bollocks again.

If you were as knowledgeable as you are wordy then you'd be worth listening to.... But you aren't..

FYI we have sold 900+ season tickets and raised over 150k in fund raising, but Rovers won't get near last seasons income? 

Dry up! 

[TxRover]

31 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

He was a teenager when he played for Airdrie though. I think its far more relevant he played every game for the Northern Irish champions last year and they very much wanted to keep him. Apparently their fans think highly of him, their officials certainly do.

Indeed, his goals conceeded average dropped precipitiously after moving to Linfield. The only question would be how much was the people in front of him and how much was the quality of the opponents. Overall the best NI teams generally get knocked about by the top tier Scottish teams, but seem at least equal to a strong League One or weak Championship side, so he might be a very nice signing. At a minimum, as we've recently seen repeatedly, you need two keepers plus a plan for number 3+.

 

1 minute ago, Skyline Drifter said:

You can dress it up anywsy you like, unless Raith finish top 2 or sell 1000 streams a wedk you wont be anywhere near last year's income. Of course you also wont have last year's costs so you might improve the bottom line. I am willing to bet good money there have been no discusdions about your mythical 'tipping point'. Hell they couldnt even agree to put something in the rules in the summer to declare the way to deal with a shutdown, incomplete season despite the fact its very obviously a high risk possibility. So if it happens again, rather than go to the rule and act accordingly we will have more public bickering and 'woe is me' 'Thistle Family' type bollocks again.

I'll go for a fetching little yellow, off the shoulder look, me thinks. As for the bet, you may be right, but I just have the feeling that within each level there has to have been a little chatter. The putting it into the rules was a typical SPFL bollox, in that they tried to ram through something that was one size fits all with no provision for what happens after perhaps 5 to 10 games or such.

As for numbers, with around 900 as the average walkup last year, calling it about £13 each on average, over 14 home games, thats £163,800. So even finishing bottom there's £50,000, and if we get only 9 home fixtures with some walkup crowds, we'd likely get pretty close to even IF, and its a huge if, relatively normal crowds are allowed. Note that "normal crowds" in this context would be 2,000 in SP, around 20-25% capacity. If it's streaming PPV, not a hope. If you add the "begging bowl", as Scotty noted, we're already close...but I'm excluding that.

[vikingTON]

In what bizarre, alternative universe would 'selling' 900 season tickets now - based on some expectation of live entertainment down the line that no club can actually guarantee btw - and raising £150k be considered equivalent to a full season's season ticket revenue and fundraising and having 4-5 extra home game receipts and 18 games revenue from the away end plus hospitality? 

Next you'll be peddling your club's lottery as the great money-spinning innovation that no other club at the same level has even thought to introduce. The word 'deluded' doesn't even begin to cover this.

[Trogdor]

31 minutes ago, Scottydog said:

If you were as knowledgeable as you are wordy then you'd be worth listening to.... But you aren't..

SD is one of the most knowledgeable posters on here and his points are well reasoned. He does have a penchant for using extra words at times but don't we all?

He's also big enough to defend himself. I'll be leaving now.