The Queen of the South thread

[TxRover]

32 minutes ago, Parttimesupporter said:

Every club's* income is going to be massively reduced this season.

* Excepting Raith. The Board ran it pretty tight last year, so even with this shutdown, it’s a fair bet we’ll at least see last year’s revenues at the end of the season. With the vast majority of the club carried over, I can’t see two two year deals being fiscally suicidal. Now Dundee and Dunfermline look less comfortable, but The Pars just scored a nice investment to shore up the accounts. From an outside perspective, QoS’s plan looks pragmatic so far, and I would assume the some funds would be forthcoming in the Winter window IF things get closer to normal. Also, if there is a decent splash from Dykes, surely using it in the Winter window, when the needs are clearer and the necessary achievements also clearer, would be best.

[callum-ayr]

6 hours ago, Parttimesupporter said:

No offence, but if you think that your playing budget will be about the same as last year then I struggle to see how you can possibly have a sustainable business model.  Every club's income is going to be massively reduced this season.  Even the old lucky dip option of an away cup tie against one of the ugly sisters is unlikely to be of much help, certainly in the Betfred.  You would have to be a bit of an optimist to think that anything like full crowds will be an option this season, so the same can be said for the Scottish Cup.

I have no idea what kind of wage Dobbie is on.  However, I am in the same camp as Die Hard Doonhamer.  

Our budget is always ran on worst case scenario as far as Cameron has mentioned. Any betfred progression etc allows the manager to add during the season (Shankland coming initially for example). We also have the AU 500 fund that I reckon pays wages and that has allowed us 2 or 3 extra players. We nabbed Baird from Morton and it was the security of a 2 year deal which Morton wouldn’t offer due to their current ownership movement, which is nuts and that may even be on less money than what he was offered there. I’d be surprised if our budget is much bigger than Queens, if at all. You can break the budgets down to 4 sections. Hearts at the top, then you’ll have Dundee/Dunfermline/ICT, followed by Ayr/Morton/QOS/Raith then Alloa and Arbroath. 

Edited September 17, 2020 by callum-ayr

[qos1990]

Our budget is always ran on worst case scenario as far as Cameron has mentioned. Any betfred progression etc allows the manager to add during the season (Shankland coming initially for example). We also have the AU 500 fund that I reckon pays wages and that has allowed us 2 or 3 extra players. We nabbed Baird from Morton and it was the security of a 2 year deal which Morton wouldn’t offer due to their current ownership movement, which is nuts and that may even be on less money than what he was offered there. I’d be surprised if our budget is much bigger than Queens, if at all. You can break the budgets down to 4 sections. Hearts at the top, then you’ll have Dundee/Dunfermline/ICT, followed by Ayr/Morton/QOS/Raith then Alloa and Arbroath. 

I think we’ll be nearer lower bracket

[Alex Nesovic's Barmy Army]

Petravicius now with some Spanish 4th tier mob called Aguilas

Decent touch but staggeringly lightweight. Scored a cracker on debut at Morton then did f**k all.

[vikingTON]

9 hours ago, callum-ayr said:

Lachlan Cameron won’t be punting money into Ayr. He’s said for years now the days of money going in without any sort of return is over. We’ve added to the board and seem to have a sustainable business model at the moment. As far as we’re aware the playing budget will be about the same as last year, if not reduced. Players just seem to be taking the security of 2 year deals at the moment given the current climate and this year won’t even be a full season. 
 

The playing budget should be massively reduced on last season given the circumstances though. If fans are not back in grounds in the very near future then any form of business as usual approach to the transfer market will result in a big loss at every club. Ayr aren't bankrolled in the Brooks Mileson sense of the term but the difference here is between having directors who are able and willing to cover that potential short term hit and clubs who don't have that luxury.

[vikingTON]

7 hours ago, TxRover said:

* Excepting Raith. The Board ran it pretty tight last year, so even with this shutdown, it’s a fair bet we’ll at least see last year’s revenues at the end of the season. With the vast majority of the club carried over, I can’t see two two year deals being fiscally suicidal. Now Dundee and Dunfermline look less comfortable, but The Pars just scored a nice investment to shore up the accounts. From an outside perspective, QoS’s plan looks pragmatic so far, and I would assume the some funds would be forthcoming in the Winter window IF things get closer to normal. Also, if there is a decent splash from Dykes, surely using it in the Winter window, when the needs are clearer and the necessary achievements also clearer, would be best.

Raith lost £600k in their last two published figures from the seaside leagues IIRC and the idea that revenue would remain similar in the event of no fans at games before March, for example, is equally ludicrous.

The reality is that Raith have directors who at this moment are willing to take that potential hit and deal with how that debt gets settled later. There is no other way of making medium-term commitments in this situation unless your custodians are all as completely detached from reality as you are.

[qos1990]

Decent touch but staggeringly lightweight. Scored a cracker on debut at Morton then did f**k all.

He was absolutely guff

[Skyline Drifter]

8 hours ago, TxRover said:

* Excepting Raith. The Board ran it pretty tight last year, so even with this shutdown, it’s a fair bet we’ll at least see last year’s revenues at the end of the season. With the vast majority of the club carried over, I can’t see two two year deals being fiscally suicidal.

Whit? Is this some kind of wind up? You've gone from fans being allowed to no fans being allowed. No amount of online streaming is going to cover that. I can't believe you've just claimed that Raith's income won't be down. I know you're not stupid, your posts over the last few months show that, so I'm assuming in some way you've typed something you don't really mean.

The League money is obviously higher in a higher division but if you are at the bottom half of it it's nowhere near big enough to make up for the loss of crowds. And you can forget big money from any cup ties.

2 hours ago, callum-ayr said:

Our budget is always ran on worst case scenario as far as Cameron has mentioned. Any betfred progression etc allows the manager to add during the season (Shankland coming initially for example). We also have the AU 500 fund that I reckon pays wages and that has allowed us 2 or 3 extra players. We nabbed Baird from Morton and it was the security of a 2 year deal which Morton wouldn’t offer due to their current ownership movement, which is nuts and that may even be on less money than what he was offered there. I’d be surprised if our budget is much bigger than Queens, if at all. You can break the budgets down to 4 sections. Hearts at the top, then you’ll have Dundee/Dunfermline/ICT, followed by Ayr/Morton/QOS/Raith then Alloa and Arbroath. 

Really? Your budget was run on the worst case scenario of potentially having no supporters in grounds all year and paying a wage budget based on that? Because I guarantee you right now it wasn't. Let's be clear, if there are no fans in grounds all year then Ayr United with an average off the top of my head of say 1,700 people are down circa £200k after season tickets. Are you going to take £200k in streaming profits? I'd be pretty sceptical.

Now of course we probably won't have no crowds all season but at this point who can say for certain when we will? We have cases on the increase, colder weather on the way, localised lockdowns springing up all over the place and at least three clubs currently with some kind of outbreak in their squads. Does anyone really think we'll be anywhere near normality any time soon? If restricted crowds are allowed in the relatively near future its unlikely to be anything above the levels of season tickets already sold so it won't increase income but it will increase costs as they'll need stewarding (and far more of it than before) and deep cleaning to get them in. I'd be very surprised if Away supporters are ostensibly allowed all season (I appreciate there won't be a practical way to prevent it at most clubs).

Of course players will grab two years deals where they are offered. There's a good reason why nobody else in lower leagues is offering them generally. It's because if things carry on like this in the medium term the clubs won't be able to continue on their current levels and willingly committing to future liabilities right now is an enormous gamble. If Ayr are happy to carry that from their profits in the last couple of years and a couple of rich directors then fair play, it may well pay off. I'm less clear on how Raith intend to fund it given they had the begging bowls out in the summer already and consistently post financial losses already (in a lower division granted).

The ONLY reason there were not mass bankruptcies in the lower divisions in the last 6 months is the Job Retention Scheme which effectively allowed clubs a free pass on payroll for 6 months. That's not coming back. The Govt have ruled it out. They can't afford it. Businesses will largely have to cope on their own in future lockdowns or trade with enormous precautions in place. For industries that depend on mass gatherings for the majority of their income that's existence threatening stuff and football clubs, along with concert venues, are right at the top of that list. Most clubs outside the Premiership wouldn't be able to meet more than a couple of months expenses with no income.

Edited September 17, 2020 by Skyline Drifter

[callum-ayr]

1 hour ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Whit? Is this some kind of wind up? You've gone from fans being allowed to no fans being allowed. No amount of online streaming is going to cover that. I can't believe you've just claimed that Raith's income won't be down. I know you're not stupid, your posts over the last few months show that, so I'm assuming in some way you've typed something you don't really mean.

The League money is obviously higher in a higher division but if you are at the bottom half of it it's nowhere near big enough to make up for the loss of crowds. And you can forget big money from any cup ties.

Really? Your budget was run on the worst case scenario of potentially having no supporters in grounds all year and paying a wage budget based on that? Because I guarantee you right now it wasn't. Let's be clear, if there are no fans in grounds all year then Ayr United with an average off the top of my head of say 1,700 people are down circa £200k after season tickets. Are you going to take £200k in streaming profits? I'd be pretty sceptical.

Now of course we probably won't have no crowds all season but at this point who can say for certain when we will? We have cases on the increase, colder weather on the way, localised lockdowns springing up all over the place and at least three clubs currently with some kind of outbreak in their squads. Does anyone really think we'll be anywhere near normality any time soon? If restricted crowds are allowed in the relatively near future its unlikely to be anything above the levels of season tickets already sold so it won't increase income but it will increase costs as they'll need stewarding (and far more of it than before) and deep cleaning to get them in. I'd be very surprised if Away supporters are ostensibly allowed all season (I appreciate there won't be a practical way to prevent it at most clubs).

Of course players will grab two years deals where they are offered. There's a good reason why nobody else in lower leagues is offering them generally. It's because if things carry on like this in the medium term the clubs won't be able to continue on their current levels and willingly committing to future liabilities right now is an enormous gamble. If Ayr are happy to carry that from their profits in the last couple of years and a couple of rich directors then fair play, it may well pay off. I'm less clear on how Raith intend to fund it given they had the begging bowls out in the summer already and consistently post financial losses already (in a lower division granted).

The ONLY reason there were not mass bankruptcies in the lower divisions in the last 6 months is the Job Retention Scheme which effectively allowed clubs a free pass on payroll for 6 months. That's not coming back. The Govt have ruled it out. They can't afford it. Businesses will largely have to cope on their own in future lockdowns or trade with enormous precautions in place. For industries that depend on mass gatherings for the majority of their income that's existence threatening stuff and football clubs, along with concert venues, are right at the top of that list. Most clubs outside the Premiership wouldn't be able to meet more than a couple of months expenses with no income.

Well for a kick off I was talking about cup competitions and league placings. Cameron mare than evidently clear in one of his question and answer forums online about our budget and worst case scenario. We generally do well in the betfred and that allows extra funds to pick up players during early to mid season on a free like the example I’ve given if you read it again. I’d be very surprised if we’ve budgeted on crowds this side of Christmas. You clearly know more than me though. 

[Parttimesupporter]

20 minutes ago, callum-ayr said:

Well for a kick off I was talking about cup competitions and league placings. Cameron mare than evidently clear in one of his question and answer forums online about our budget and worst case scenario. We generally do well in the betfred and that allows extra funds to pick up players during early to mid season on a free like the example I’ve given if you read it again. I’d be very surprised if we’ve budgeted on crowds this side of Christmas. You clearly know more than me though. 

But is the point not that last night you said "As far as we’re aware the playing budget will be about the same as last year, if not reduced."  In any realistic scenario it will have to be seriously reduced.  I agree that assuming no crowds (or at best limited crowds) this side of Christmas is prudent, but by definition that means that the budget is down.

[callum-ayr]

27 minutes ago, Parttimesupporter said:

But is the point not that last night you said "As far as we’re aware the playing budget will be about the same as last year, if not reduced."  In any realistic scenario it will have to be seriously reduced.  I agree that assuming no crowds (or at best limited crowds) this side of Christmas is prudent, but by definition that means that the budget is down.

Budgets being down will may be dependant on other revenue streams. For us having AU500 fund as well as the 5 start lottery which puts money into the club is extremely advantageous. Without knowing or being able to view teams finances it really is second guessing. SD made the point of our average crowd being around 1700 so we’d be losing out on that. That wouldn’t really be the case as we had around 1000-1200 season tickets last year so you’re then looking at 500 or so paying and not all will be full paying adults etc. No idea what our current season ticket sales are. 

[Homer Thompson]

5 minutes ago, callum-ayr said:

Budgets being down will may be dependant on other revenue streams. For us having AU500 fund as well as the 5 start lottery which puts money into the club is extremely advantageous. Without knowing or being able to view teams finances it really is second guessing. SD made the point of our average crowd being around 1700 so we’d be losing out on that. That wouldn’t really be the case as we had around 1000-1200 season tickets last year so you’re then looking at 500 or so paying and not all will be full paying adults etc. No idea what our current season ticket sales are. 

Advantageous compared to who? Queens have a successful lottery scheme and have for years. They also have regular income from the Arena, more I would suggest than the AU500 fund brings in.

 

[callum-ayr]

3 minutes ago, Mr X said:

Advantageous compared to who? Queens have a successful lottery scheme and have for years. They also have regular income from the Arena, more I would suggest than the AU500 fund brings in.

 

Compared to clubs who may not have schemes in place, I wasn’t suggesting QOS don’t have such ventures, no need to get your knickers in a twist over nothing . Maybe you’re income from the arena is paying for Willie Gibson. 

[Homer Thompson]

9 minutes ago, callum-ayr said:

Compared to clubs who may not have schemes in place, I wasn’t suggesting QOS don’t have such ventures, no need to get your knickers in a twist over nothing . Maybe you’re income from the arena is paying for Willie Gibson. 

My knickers are completely untwisted. 

I would imagine most, if not all, clubs at this level run some kind of lottery. There must also be others that run fan schemes or have other non-football revenue.

I know you werent suggesting Queens dont have this, but your suggestion that this income puts Ayr at any kind of significant advantage is questionable.

Edited September 17, 2020 by Mr X

[BIGdavieT]

The current board’s entire regime has been built on being financially astute so it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone it is the case this coming season when this is required more than ever.
It’s possible to be aware of all that but still be frustrated by it and have the odd grumble though. Especially on the likes of here.

Yeah I think the odd grumble is fair enough. I wouldn’t say I’m impressed with the signings so far either. I think my point really is that I’m more worried about having a club to support than I am about this season’s squad signings so far.

And as others have suggested, you really do wonder where the money will come from to subsidise the wage bills of other clubs in this division if the crowds this year are towards our worst fears.

One caveat I will add. Maybe contracts have clauses that can massively reduce the pay if there’s another lockdown, postponement or no crowds are allowed all season. I have no idea if that’s possible or not.

[Broken Algorithms]

2 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Whit? Is this some kind of wind up? You've gone from fans being allowed to no fans being allowed. No amount of online streaming is going to cover that. I can't believe you've just claimed that Raith's income won't be down. I know you're not stupid, your posts over the last few months show that, so I'm assuming in some way you've typed something you don't really mean.

The League money is obviously higher in a higher division but if you are at the bottom half of it it's nowhere near big enough to make up for the loss of crowds. And you can forget big money from any cup ties.

Of course players will grab two years deals where they are offered. There's a good reason why nobody else in lower leagues is offering them generally. It's because if things carry on like this in the medium term the clubs won't be able to continue on their current levels and willingly committing to future liabilities right now is an enormous gamble. If Ayr are happy to carry that from their profits in the last couple of years and a couple of rich directors then fair play, it may well pay off. I'm less clear on how Raith intend to fund it given they had the begging bowls out in the summer already and consistently post financial losses already (in a lower division granted).

The ONLY reason there were not mass bankruptcies in the lower divisions in the last 6 months is the Job Retention Scheme which effectively allowed clubs a free pass on payroll for 6 months. That's not coming back. The Govt have ruled it out. They can't afford it. Businesses will largely have to cope on their own in future lockdowns or trade with enormous precautions in place. For industries that depend on mass gatherings for the majority of their income that's existence threatening stuff and football clubs, along with concert venues, are right at the top of that list. Most clubs outside the Premiership wouldn't be able to meet more than a couple of months expenses with no income.

While I'd not be as bold to suggest we'll not be down on our income, we're in a far better league if there's no fans allowed into games. I'd imagine we'll look to open up our streaming to away fans (as you'd expect most teams) and even though we'll lose money on match day revenues, I'd far rather that we're in the Championship with Hearts, Dunfermline and Dundee. Had we been in league one, we'd have been fucked. Instead, you'd expect quite a lot of the fans of fans will pick up one uses passes for away games. It's obvious to say, but this is far more preferential to two bit supports from your Montroses and Peterheads of this world. I think most clubs will benefit in terms of away fans being more likely to purchase streams for trips they might not make (I'd not be inclined to go to a game against Queens away due to travel but I'd be happy to stream it). 

As for our issues in the Summer, there's been no verdict from the arbitration on legal costs as of yet but indications are positives. We initially started the crowdfunder in April based off the willingness of fans to chip in. Obviously, the court cases came into play but if we're covered for those then I'd hazard a guess it would mean we can use resources which had been set aside for any potential loss and use them for our squad. We've offered two year deals to two players and the rest of our signings have been players coming up from England on one year contracts. I'm not suggesting we're flush with cash by any means, but I'd hope we're OK to get through this period.  Given how quickly the situation changes with case numbers then it's impossible to say where we'll be - even if we do end up in difficulty I don't think it's too disingenuous to look back at when we made the signings and think "well it was a different picture with how the cases were at that point". 

Each board will have their own strategy. Some might take a bit more of gamble to see if they can push on. Those that are more conservative might benefit if there's a shut down but also might face relegation if things start improving and they've gone with a weakened squad.  Either way, hopefully turns out ok for the clubs. It's an absolutely brutal situation for people to be in. 

[BIGdavieT]

Ayr aren't bankrolled in the Brooks Mileson sense of the term but the difference here is between having directors who are able and willing...

Ha ha so what exactly is “being bankrolled in the Brooks Mileson sense of the term?”

Spending copious amounts of money that doesn’t exist on the squad, keeping the non league infrastructure unimproved and then going into receivership when the debt is recalled?

[BIGdavieT]

While I'd not be as bold to suggest we'll not be down on our income, we're in a far better league if there's no fans allowed into games. I'd imagine we'll look to open up our streaming to away fans (as you'd expect most teams) and even though we'll lose money on match day revenues, I'd far rather that we're in the Championship with Hearts, Dunfermline and Dundee. Had we been in league one, we'd have been fucked. Instead, you'd expect quite a lot of the fans of fans will pick up one uses passes for away games. It's obvious to say, but this is far more preferential to two bit supports from your Montroses and Peterheads of this world. I think most clubs will benefit in terms of away fans being more likely to purchase streams for trips they might not make (I'd not be inclined to go to a game against Queens away due to travel but I'd be happy to stream it). 
As for our issues in the Summer, there's been no verdict from the arbitration on legal costs as of yet but indications are positives. We initially started the crowdfunder in April based off the willingness of fans to chip in. Obviously, the court cases came into play but if we're covered for those then I'd hazard a guess it would mean we can use resources which had been set aside for any potential loss and use them for our squad. We've offered two year deals to two players and the rest of our signings have been players coming up from England on one year contracts. I'm not suggesting we're flush with cash by any means, but I'd hope we're OK to get through this period.  Given how quickly the situation changes with case numbers then it's impossible to say where we'll be - even if we do end up in difficulty I don't think it's too disingenuous to look back at when we made the signings and think "well it was a different picture with how the cases were at that point". 
Each board will have their own strategy. Some might take a bit more of gamble to see if they can push on. Those that are more conservative might benefit if there's a shut down but also might face relegation if things start improving and they've gone with a weakened squad.  Either way, hopefully turns out ok for the clubs. It's an absolutely brutal situation for people to be in. 

“A bit more of a gamble”

Sounds like a great strategy! Looking at football over the last twenty years, what could go wrong?!

[Broken Algorithms]

“A bit more of a gamble”

Sounds like a great strategy! Looking at football over the last twenty years, what could go wrong?!

This is an unprecedented situation: the last 20 years are irrelevant as none have taken place during a pandemic other than the end of last season. Nobody has a clue what will happen. We've just spent three years in a league with shit away supports and very little excitement. I think our board have kept that in mind with a view of consolidating our place back in the league.

[BIGdavieT]

This is an unprecedented situation: the last 20 years are irrelevant as none have taken place during a pandemic other than the end of last season. Nobody has a clue what will happen. We've just spent three years in a league with shit away supports and very little excitement. I think our board have kept that in mind with a view of consolidating our place back in the league.

Is this a windup?

The “let’s have a bit of a gamble and push on” strategy destroyed countless clubs over the last twenty years. Comparatively the good times.

Now we have a pandemic, a completely unprecedentedly bad situation for football, the potential for no fans through the turnstile all season.

Two week UK national lockdown rumoured to be in the pipeline today.

Good Luck!