The Master Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 It's not *quite* as clear cut as that. If Labour lose constituency places, they'll start to gain list seats as they fall down the pecking order, so the change could be more subtle. They still need to get the list votes in the first place, though. And in Glasgow, it's always about "eh vote Laburr", and not the actual MSP, so you'd imagine if the constituency vote collapses, so will the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mushroom Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Green 46% SNP 17% Lib Dem 13% Labour 10% Tory -27% Seeing as I was leaning towards 1st vote SNP and 2nd vote Green anyway - that seems to be a fairly accurate test actually. P.S. It would be fucking hilarious if Iain Gray lost his seat, the man is clearly in way over his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 They still need to get the list votes in the first place, though. And in Glasgow, it's always about "eh vote Laburr", and not the actual MSP, so you'd imagine if the constituency vote collapses, so will the list. Sure. Will be interesting certainly. What I gathered is that a fair number of the Labour front bench aren't confident of keeping their seats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyingscot Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 I wonder how Labour will do in Paisley now Wendy Alexander is gone too. They had a majority of 5,000 last time, but with boundary changes, SNP government and Lib Dem /Conservative vote squeeze it might be tighter than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chico Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 (Un)official Scottish Labour policy not to put candidates both in a constituency and on the list. Word on the ground with my Labour intern colleague is that Gray looks likely to lose his seat according to internal polling, and that some of the Glasgow constituencies are getting a bit too close for comfort. I wonder if this is part true / part spin by labour. Get a 'wur fucked' message out there and drag out the labour voters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chico Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 I wonder how Labour will do in Paisley now Wendy Alexander is gone too. They had a majority of 5,000 last time, but with boundary changes, SNP government and Lib Dem /Conservative vote squeeze it might be tighter than before. SNP/Lib council, but I think there's still too many chimps likely to be voting labour. I don't think the Council has changed Paisley high street and the town centre is one of the big issues. Be the first time in many many years that Paisley hasn't been split north/south, but I still think labour will drag out their vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 I wonder if this is part true / part spin by labour. Get a 'wur fucked' message out there and drag out the labour voters Nope. Guy told me to keep it quiet (so naturally I felt I should share it with P&B) . General campaign mood among the Labour lot is that they're fucked. Their private polling a couple of weeks ago suggested things were much worse than the publicly available polls, so the one that's putting the SNP way ahead today might not be as far wide of the mark as people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 I wonder if this is part true / part spin by labour. Get a 'wur fucked' message out there and drag out the labour voters I was wondering this myself. I mean they tried "THE SNP", which failed, they tried "THE TORIES!", which doesn't seem to be a winner, maybe this is what is left? I just can't see Labour falling this much, but then, in all my wildest dreams, I never, ever foresaw what a horses arse Labour would make of their campaign. It has been astonishingly bad from start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Interesting stuff from Ad Lib (an unlikely sentence I know). The SNP seem to have had an excellent campaign, their central message of 'Salmond for First Minister' is a simple, effective vote winner. Their record is difficult to campaign for or against - they didn't make any sweeping changes in government so are hard to attack. Labour are going to have a tough time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theentomologist Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Interesting stuff from Ad Lib (an unlikely sentence I know). The SNP seem to have had an excellent campaign, their central message of 'Salmond for First Minister' is a simple, effective vote winner. Their record is difficult to campaign for or against - they didn't make any sweeping changes in government so are hard to attack. Labour are going to have a tough time. it is. but it works on many levels not just salmond being competent. but the intrinsic unsaid part of it is, 'or you'll end up with that Grey guy........giggity...' they did make prescription charges free at the right time. they abolished road tolls. if I had been labour, either you go with wooo, vote snp get tories which doesn't really fly. or you have to attack the al-megrahi/winter chaos things both of which are easily dodged with 'it was a decision made with the best of intentions whether you agree or not...' and -I thank you for pointing out I called for it- 'we sacked the muppet who was in charge for that.' I don't see what else labour can attack. its actually quite a challenge because with policy being so similar its a simple alex v iain fight and come on. even hardened labour must recoil at that being the arguement. Statesman or coward who runs -oh sorry iain- walks away from awkwardness to buy his lunch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ginge123 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I got: 36% Lib Dem 32% Greens 29% SNP 9% Labour and -11% for Tories I am almost certainly going to vote SNP but I don't know who my second will be, probably the Greens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 If the swing against Labour is really that big in the West of Scotland, then maybe I will finally be in an area where Labour isn't elected. My Westminster seat is safe Labour, and my Holyrood one has been Labour in each of the last three, but the majority was down from just over 6,000 in 2003 to just over 2,000 in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 (Un)official Scottish Labour policy not to put candidates both in a constituency and on the list. Word on the ground with my Labour intern colleague is that Gray looks likely to lose his seat according to internal polling, and that some of the Glasgow constituencies are getting a bit too close for comfort. Please please please!!! I am so glad I am registered to vote in East Lothian! P.S. It would be fucking hilarious if Iain Gray lost his seat, the man is clearly in way over his head. It would be fantastic. Arthur Henderson will be chuffed wherever he is (or isn't). At least he won't be so alone now. Mind you, it was to some extent Gray's to loose, Henderson was shafted by Ramsay MacDonald (a distant relative ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capybara Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Remember the Gray man lost his seat in 2003i it has happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Continuing the theme of the Daily Record trying to link the Tories and the SNP: David Cameron tells Tories: It is OK to vote for SNP David Cameron gave Alex Salmond a huge helping hand yesterday when he cleared the way for Tory voters to back the SNP. In an astonishing move two weeks from polling day, he chucked in the towel in the fight for Holyrood constituencies. The Prime Minister said: "I would urge people, whatever they do for the constituency vote, to vote Conservative on the list vote."... It was seen as a signal to Tory supporters to back SNP candidates in the constituency vote. And it added more fuel to claims that Cameron is secretly manoeuvring to ensure an SNP victory in a bid to embarrass Labour leader Ed Miliband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theentomologist Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Remember the Gray man lost his seat in 2003i it has happened before. oh I know, but not as party 'leader' that'd be brilliant. I mean if he loses, who gives the concession speech, who initiates coalition talks? they'd be in freefall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scary Bear Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 It's what everybody is concerned about during an election in May... Yeh, that snow is still a real problem in Kirkcaldy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivo den Bieman Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Is the Sun Setting on Labour's Empire in Scotland? ^ Interesting article from newsnet scotland on the extent of Labour's atrophy on the ground, and the dwindling activity/thin spread of their grassroots activists. If all of that is true, and it seems quite well founded, the Labour are really up against it going into the last fortnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scary Bear Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I was heartened to see the polls giving the SNP a lead, and also that The Sun *spit* was backing the SNP. That goes some way to balancing the outrageous bias shown by the likes of the Daily Record *vomit*. That fucking turd of a paper (which one, I hear you say...but in this case it's the Record) has a lot to answer for. Are the changing voting habits due to the older generation, who in some cases instinctively vote Labour, dying off? The Labour party in Scotland don't appear to have even tried to change since their election defeat in 2007, so I'll be pretty disappointed if they are returned to power, especially with that idiot Gray at the helm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jester Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 22% Green 22% SNP 8% Libdem -2% Labour -8% Conservative. Considering I hate windfarms I'm surprised the green vote rated so highly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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