May 2011 Election

[Ivo den Bieman]

It would be the second time he's been red-carded by his constituents, after just one term, having been humiliated by David McLetchie in Edinburgh Pentlands in 2003 (on a night where Labour otherwise did really well at the SNP's expense)

If he were to lose (and here's hoping your hunch is right Enigma) it really would put the tin lid on a calamitous Labour showing. I'm still a wee bit skeptical though. There may well have been a collapse in EL's "substantial Liberal vote" thanks to the Coalition and the utter invisibility of their campaign. Where those votes go will likely determine his fate.

On the other hand, were he to win, I can see him peevishly refusing to stand aside and blame everyone else for Labour's coming bad night, consigning the buggers for another four years of cat-in-a-sack in-fighting and knee jerk, policy-lite opportunism in relation the the SNP.

[Enigma]

It would be the second time he's been red-carded by his constituents, after just one term, having been humiliated by David McLetchie in Edinburgh Pentlands in 2003 (on a night where Labour otherwise did really well at the SNP's expense)

If he were to lose (and here's hoping your hunch is right Enigma) it really would put the tin lid on a calamitous Labour showing. I'm still a wee bit skeptical though. There may well have been a collapse in EL's "substantial Liberal vote" thanks to the Coalition and the utter invisibility of their campaign. Where those votes go will likely determine his fate.

On the other hand, were he to win, I can see him peevishly refusing to stand aside and blame everyone else for Labour's coming bad night, consigning the buggers for another four years of cat-in-a-sack in-fighting and knee jerk, policy-lite opportunism in relation the the SNP.

I also think the Liberals have been getting a bit of flak for standing a pretty poor candidate, one Ettie Spencer. She is an artist. I would think a proportion of those votes go to Labour. I think a few people have voted fdor the Liberals as a Labour protest, they did very well in the 2005 UK GE in East Lothain and their whole campaign in 2007 was that in East Lothain they were the only credible Labour opposition. That all said being in exile here in Stirling i'm not too up on local news, I might have a peek at the East Lothain Courier's website later.

Labours vote declined by 7.29% in 2003 and by 8.4% in 2007. Is that trend suddenly going to reverse? Here are the 2007 results for anybody who is interested:

Labour - Iain Gray - 12219 - 35.4 - -8.4

SNP - Andrew Sharp - 9771 - 28.4 - +11.8

Liberal Democrats - Judy Hayman - 6249 - 18.1 - +1.3

Conservative - Bill Stevenson - 6232 - 18.1 - +0.

[The Master]

I expected Iain Gray to be Number 1 on the list for Lothians, but he's not on it at all.

That would make it all the funnier to see him chucked out of his seat.

[Mr. Brightside]

I heard the BNP's PEB, I see their main policy is "more grit for the roads and pavements"

[Enigma]

I heard the BNP's PEB, I see their main policy is "more grit for the roads and pavements"

It's what everybody is concerned about during an election in May...

[The Master]

I heard the BNP's PEB, I see their main policy is "more grit for the roads and pavements"

Disgraceful policy.

All this grit...coming over here, stealing our moisture

[Enigma]

Disgraceful policy.

All this grit...coming over here, stealing our moisture

Quite! Pure British grit for British roads!!!1!!1!

[vikingTON]

Not that stupid though, they're clearly going for the racist old biddy vote and that of her sadly swampied grandson who no-one really likes to talk about.

[Broccoli Dog]

there was loads of grit this winter, in fact it's still all over the pavements in my 'hood.

oh yeah election year i forgot.

[vikingTON]

Full Times poll story from UKPR:

There is a new Ipsos MORI poll in today’s Times that shows a commanding lead for the SNP. Topline figures, with changes from their previous Scottish poll, are:

Holyrood constituency: CON 10%(-3), LAB 34%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), SNP 45%(+

Holyrood regional: CON 10%(-3), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-2), SNP 42%(+7), Green 6%(nc)

In The Times John Curtice projects that if repeated in the Scottish Parliamentary elections this would give the SNP 61 seats (up 14), Labour 45 (down 1), Conservatives 10 (down 7), Lib Dems 9 (down 7) and Scottish Greens 4 (up 2).

Clearly MORI are showing a bigger lead for the SNP than we’ve seen so far, but across the board recent polling is strong for the SNP. Recent polls from YouGov and Panelbase also showed the SNP ahead. The most recent poll from ICM continued to show Labour leading… but that’s over a month ago now, and at the time YouGov were also still showing Labour ahead. Public opinion seems to have shifted since then

[Broccoli Dog]

didn't the snp also have massive leads in the run up to 2007?

[Enigma]

didn't the snp also have massive leads in the run up to 2007?

Yes. Click.

[vikingTON]

http://ukpollingrepo...oting-intention

The lead swung around a lot (there also seemed to have been more polls run in 2007), though SNP's highest Constituency was 40% and list 39%. Perhaps it's no coincidence that the Lib Dem vote has slumped since, maybe those who wanted to turn to Labour before the campaign proper have turned towards the SNP instead?

[Gowfer_Lichtie]

here it is

http://www.scottishvotecompass.org/

Ta very muckle

Edited to add my scores;

SNP - 39%

Greens - 38%

Lib Dems - 14%

Labour - -6%

Conservative - -19%

Not surprised at SNP and Greens coming top as I am swithering on my regional vote. Surprised that the Tories came last for me.

Mrs Gowfer came out with;

SNP - 22%

Greens - 19%

Lib Dems - 14%

Labour - 14%

Conservatives 0%

[Gogs Grog]

Already voted as I'm away working for the election. Always voted for Lim Dem in my life but went for SNP this time, and I'm not a natural SNP voter for a lot of reasons.

SNP will always get in here in Angus but felt they had done a good job in government with their hands tied by Westminster..

2nd vote for the Greens as I feel a pressure group trying to keep the parliment in check is a good thing, and I agree with a lot of what they say.

[chico]

I expected Iain Gray to be Number 1 on the list for Lothians, but he's not on it at all.

That would make it all the funnier to see him chucked out of his seat.

Cheers had wondered about that after reading previous post on Gray on last page.

[Ad Lib]

I expected Iain Gray to be Number 1 on the list for Lothians, but he's not on it at all.

That would make it all the funnier to see him chucked out of his seat.

(Un)official Scottish Labour policy not to put candidates both in a constituency and on the list. Word on the ground with my Labour intern colleague is that Gray looks likely to lose his seat according to internal polling, and that some of the Glasgow constituencies are getting a bit too close for comfort.

[Skipper]

(Un)official Scottish Labour policy not to put candidates both in a constituency and on the list. Word on the ground with my Labour intern colleague is that Gray looks likely to lose his seat according to internal polling, and that some of the Glasgow constituencies are getting a bit too close for comfort.

If Labour are in trouble in Glasgow the games a bogey for them.

[The Master]

(Un)official Scottish Labour policy not to put candidates both in a constituency and on the list.

That's utter madness if true, especially when it comes to the leader.

If Labour are in trouble in Glasgow the games a bogey for them.

If Labour's vote in Glasgow collapses, the SNP will be flirting with a majority...and that's nigh on impossible.

[Ad Lib]

That's utter madness if true, especially when it comes to the leader.

If Labour's vote in Glasgow collapses, the SNP will be flirting with a majority...and that's nigh on impossible.

It's not *quite* as clear cut as that. If Labour lose constituency places, they'll start to gain list seats as they fall down the pecking order, so the change could be more subtle.