May 2011 Election

[Reynard]

I'm a Champagne Socialist icon.

Champage genuinely hasnt made it to Greenock yet. I think he's a Lambrini girl.

Which is a step up from his maw who was probably gubbed on Eldorado during conception.

[vikingTON]

Champage genuinely hasnt made it to Greenock yet. I think he's a Lambrini girl.

Which is a step up from his maw who was probably gubbed on Eldorado during conception.

Perhaps you two could get a room and save us all this one step forward/two back mating ritual.

[renton]

Latest Scottish poll, this time from Yougov, thier first Holyrood poll in the better part of a year: polling report

Headline is as follows:

Constituency: CON 15%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, SNP 32%

Regional: CON 15%, LAB 40%, LDEM 7%, SNP 26%, GRN 6%

Would give Labour 59 seats, the SNP 35 seats, the Tories would actually gain two seats to 19 and the Lib Dem vote would collapse to 9 seats, Greens would have 6 seats in this scenario.

This is more in line with the TNS poll from a few months back, and more in the general trend of large Labour leads, it may be that the Ipsos-MORI poll was an outlier in showing an SNP lead at this stage....

[H_B]

This is more in line with the TNS poll from a few months back, and more in the general trend of large Labour leads, it may be that the Ipsos-MORI poll was an outlier in showing an SNP lead at this stage....

Pollstering really is money for old rope.

There will be one in a couple of weeks time with the SNP much closer, along with 2 contradicting ones on whether Scots want Independence.

I suspect the results will be closer than that poll suggests. Labour will certainly win though.

[Reynard]

Pollstering really is money for old rope.

There will be one in a couple of weeks time with the SNP much closer, along with 2 contradicting ones on whether Scots want Independence.

I suspect the results will be closer than that poll suggests. Labour will certainly win though.

And that fucking arse John Curtice will be wheeled out on Newsnight Scotland to dribble on about it.

[Ad Lib]

And that fucking arse John Curtice will be wheeled out on Newsnight Scotland to dribble on about it.

He shops at Sainsburys on Crow Road. His hair is even more unruly in real life than it is when they wheel him out into the Election night studio.

[Reynard]

He shops at Sainsburys on Crow Road. His hair is even more unruly in real life than it is when they wheel him out into the Election night studio.

He's a w**k. My mate started an I hate John Curtice facebook page. But as he is the head of policy and media at the Scottish Chambers of Commerce it was deemed inappropriate

[ICTChris]

Latest Scottish poll, this time from Yougov, thier first Holyrood poll in the better part of a year: polling report

Headline is as follows:

Constituency: CON 15%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, SNP 32%

Regional: CON 15%, LAB 40%, LDEM 7%, SNP 26%, GRN 6%

Would give Labour 59 seats, the SNP 35 seats, the Tories would actually gain two seats to 19 and the Lib Dem vote would collapse to 9 seats, Greens would have 6 seats in this scenario.

This is more in line with the TNS poll from a few months back, and more in the general trend of large Labour leads, it may be that the Ipsos-MORI poll was an outlier in showing an SNP lead at this stage....

Again, that would be an absolute disaster for the SNP, if it came to pass. I think Labour will win but that it will be closer than those results.

Also, I went to a lecture that John Curtice did when I was at Uni and he was a perfectly nice man.

[Reynard]

Again, that would be an absolute disaster for the SNP, if it came to pass. I think Labour will win but that it will be closer than those results.

Also, I went to a lecture that John Curtice did when I was at Uni and he was a perfectly nice man.

He should stick to lecturing.

Fucking old c**t.

[H_B]

Who is this John Curtice of whom you speak?

[Reynard]

[H_B]

Never seen him.. but then I don't tend to watch any BBC news programmes.

[Reynard]

Never seen him.. but then I don't tend to watch any BBC news programmes.

It tends to be the BBC that wheel him out.

[xbl]

There is an interesting bit on newsnet about how yougov is weighed, apparently, by the raw data, more people said SNP, but the weighing transformed the picture and converts a small SNP lead into a massive one. Meh, I dunno. But that lead can't possibly be close to right.

Edited, for those that have an interest, Joan McAlpine has an interesting breakdown of the figures:

David Murray, the politics of character and that dodgy Yougov poll

Amongst actual respondents to the YouGov poll SNP were ahead by 13%, but weighting changed this to Labour being 9% ahead. The poll, which was commissioned by the Greens, weights voters according to their party political preference at the Westminster election. This makes no sense because voting patterns are so different at Holyrood. Indeed YouGov start out from the assumption that Labour has a 38% voter identification compared to 16% for the SNP and adjust their poll accordingly. So judge the findings in that context. It also doubles and sometimes triple counts readers of tabloids such as the Daily Mirror and the Record and its methods have been criticised by other pollsters.

:: eyebrow ::

So the actual, stark figures, without weighting are:

Constituency:

SNP: 41%

Lab: 28%

Con: 18%

Lib: 6%

Regional:

SNP: 34%

Lab: 26%

Con: 19%

Lib: 06%

Oth: 16%

Which gives a very different picture! I know that obviously as a SNP supporter, I'm going to be considered biased, but even the Unionists on here acknowledge different patterns in Scottish and Westminster elections, so how can this form of weighting possibly be accurate? Basically, polling is a load of bollocks!

[renton]

There is an interesting bit on newsnet about how yougov is weighed, apparently, by the raw data, more people said SNP, but the weighing transformed the picture and converts a small SNP lead into a massive one. Meh, I dunno. But that lead can't possibly be close to right.

The weighting thing is dealt with in the comments section on polling report, for this particular poll. I think Ipsos who showed the SNP lead earlier this month don't actually wieght their polls at all -or something to that effect.

A few things I would note.

At the moment there is a paucity of polls in the field and until they start doing more regular ones, these snap shots are never going to give a completely faithful picutre.

Add to that, the fact that the peculiarities of the scottish voting system, wavering allegiances between Westminster and Holyrood and this could arguably skew the poll.

On the other hand, only Ipsos-MORI have shown that SNP lead, the other companies who do Scottish elections have shown a consistent, and large Labour lead. Which in some respects lessens (but not totally eradicate) the impact of not having regular polling data.

Also, while inevitably people who don't like a particular poll will go out of their way to denigrate it, it's worht noting that yougov in recent elections have been pretty good, and maanged to call the Westminster election to within one point or something ridiculous like that, so it's not like their technique is faulty, although the application to the Scottish elections may need tweaked - as I said earlier.

[xbl]

The weighting thing is dealt with in the comments section on polling report, for this particular poll. I think Ipsos who showed the SNP lead earlier this month don't actually wieght their polls at all -or something to that effect.

A few things I would note.

At the moment there is a paucity of polls in the field and until they start doing more regular ones, these snap shots are never going to give a completely faithful picutre.

Add to that, the fact that the peculiarities of the scottish voting system, wavering allegiances between Westminster and Holyrood and this could arguably skew the poll.

On the other hand, only Ipsos-MORI have shown that SNP lead, the other companies who do Scottish elections have shown a consistent, and large Labour lead. Which in some respects lessens (but not totally eradicate) the impact of not having regular polling data.

Also, while inevitably people who don't like a particular poll will go out of their way to denigrate it, it's worht noting that yougov in recent elections have been pretty good, and maanged to call the Westminster election to within one point or something ridiculous like that, so it's not like their technique is faulty, although the application to the Scottish elections may need tweaked - as I said earlier.

Arguably skew it? I have absolutely no doubt. The raw figures I found there actually aren't a million miles away from the Ipsos Mori results! But there is the rub, they called the Westminster election correctly, where as we saw, the Scottish results were unique in terms of their results (the only place with a consistent swing to Labour). Plus they match other YouGov polls...which are also skewed! Skewed data matching with skewed data doesn't make it any less skewed!

[renton]

Arguably skew it? I have absolutely no doubt. The raw figures I found there actually aren't a million miles away from the Ipsos Mori results! But there is the rub, they called the Westminster election correctly, where as we saw, the Scottish results were unique in terms of their results (the only place with a consistent swing to Labour). Plus they match other YouGov polls...which are also skewed! Skewed data matching with skewed data doesn't make it any less skewed!

What we don't know is how the patterns will vary. Without weighting the results look equally unlikely. plugging those results into scotlandvotes gives the following results:

SNP: 56 seats

Lab: 37 seats

Con: 25 seats

LD: 6 seats

GRN: 5 seats

IND: 1 seat

I cannot see how, after really swinging towards Labour in 2010, their vote would collapse that much, nor can i see the tories somehow picking up that many seats.

Their has to be some amount of weighting into these numbers, as I said, we don't know exactly how much of a skew you get between Holyrood and Westminster, so their will be some error. both scenarios seem unlikely to me at the moment, and I'd suggest Yougov try and examine how voting patterns vary between the two parliaments before they do another poll.

And anyway,a ccording to the site owner at polling report:

John I dont think it was actually an attempt at sensible conversation, but YouGov dont weight by westminster vote anyway.

They weight by party identification, which isnt specific to an election (if people vote differently at the two elections, as many do, they may define themselves as one rather than the other, or may see themselves as a voter who isnt firmly aligned with either, or many not know how to answer the question and say dont know. The bottom line is as long as you are weighting the individual data to the correct totals at the time you gathered it, it will do its job)

[Gordon EF]

I cannot see how, after really swinging towards Labour in 2010, their vote would collapse that much

vs

Just a thought...

[renton]

vs

Just a thought...

It's a factor, of course it is. However, it's not necessarily the deciding factor and the fact remains that even with Gray at the helm, Scottish Labour hasn't yet collapsed in on itself, has it.

[xbl]

It's a factor, of course it is. However, it's not necessarily the deciding factor and the fact remains that even with Gray at the helm, Scottish Labour hasn't yet collapsed in on itself, has it.

Given the Megrahi issue, the budget farce, the expenses scandal after expenses scandal, SPT, Purcell, Armstrong Printing, convicted MPs, Wendy resigning again, the polls showing Iain Gray's popularity, the trams, the defection of prominent Labour supporters, the falling membership numbers, its an absolute wonder that it hasn't fucking collapsed in on itself. I just refuse to believe that they are anywhere NEAR as popular as some of the polling seems to say.