xbl Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 If the SNP were to come out of this election with twenty seats less than Labour it would be an absolute disaster for them, definately not "good news... and a decent acheivement". It would mean that after having the first chance to govern during their parties history they've been unable to break through, suggesting that the 2007 result was a high-water mark for the SNP. If that's the case then achieving independence (or even a vote on the matter) will be far, far harder for the SNP. For what it's worth I think the result will be far closer than the figures above. But in 2007, it was described as a freakishly high result, influenced by protest vote. If they hold their numbers after four years, doesn't that prove that their base has solidified? Yep, anything that shows 2007 to be a total protest vote, which it was, But if their numbers are the same as in 2007, then their vote numbers are the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 But in 2007, it was described as a freakishly high result, influenced by protest vote. If they hold their numbers after four years, doesn't that prove that their base has solidified? Hold their number of seats? Yes, it would... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Hold their number of seats? Yes, it would... Voter numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrise Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Daresay I think it would be extremely hard for the SNP to come back to power any time soon if they lost again - as obvious at it sounds they won in 2007 in an amazingly ideal set of circumstances unlikely to be repeated soon - they could actually weaken within the next few years should they lose power - Salmond won't be there forever! Labour remain the main force in Scottish politics and have a consistent 'vote-whoever-they-stand' 20-30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Voter numbers. Last I checked, elections aren't determined on voter numbers, but seats won. If the SNP drop in their number of seats won, that will be a hugely dispiriting experience for them. IT can't be seen as anything other than a step backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Daresay I think it would be extremely hard for the SNP to come back to power any time soon if they lost again I think it depends how they lose... if Labour also become a minority government, and have to rely on other parties to push stuff through, i could see the SNP coming out of it OK. If Labour win a majority, then yep - it would take a freakish set of circumstances to imagine they will return soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Last I checked, elections aren't determined on voter numbers, but seats won. If the SNP drop in their number of seats won, that will be a hugely dispiriting experience for them. IT can't be seen as anything other than a step backwards. But if they got 32% on "protest votes" last time, and they get 32% this time, doesn't that show that the 32% is more than just a protest vote? And as I said, they are the incumbent party in tough times, and they've been hammered by the media for four years. Surely to poll the same numbers in the face of all that is actually a pretty solid achievement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 But if they got 32% on "protest votes" last time, and they get 32% this time, doesn't that show that the 32% is more than just a protest vote? And as I said, they are the incumbent party in tough times, and they've been hammered by the media for four years. Surely to poll the same numbers in the face of all that is actually a pretty solid achievement? It would probably depend on the amount of votes cast(turnout). If it's a high turnout and they increase the number of votes and stay at 32% it will be a breakthrough whether they win or lose I suppose. They will lose though and that's never that great for a party in power is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 They will lose though and that's never that great for a party in power is it? That's the crux of it, although I don't think I'm as certain as you are that the SNP will lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 They will lose though and that's never that great for a party in power is it? Well no, but neither is it disastrous, especially if they lose having increased their vote numbers since 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 They have established themselves as a credible party of government, which deflates about 98% of the SCOTLAND WILL DIE IN THE MORNING unionist bullshit at, oh, every Scottish election going. They still shouldn't be losing to Iain fucking Gray though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 The last election was just the first one the SNP had won but it's was the first time they'd even been serious contenders. If they lose very narrowly to Labour this time, I wouldn't see that a s a disaster. It would show that they might have dropped back from last time but that it wasn't a flash in the pan and that there is something more than a freak protest vote against Labour to build on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Exactly (to the two posts above). One election defeat after winning for the first time ever in 2007 does not spell the end of the SNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uni Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I hate myself for it but I can see me voting Labour in the Constituency Ballot. As much as I hate Iain Gray and I just cannot vote for any other of the mainstream parties and the Labour candidate doesn't stand a chance in my constituency so it might be worth helping them out. My regional ballot is going to SSP obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 I hate myself for it but I can see me voting Labour in the Constituency Ballot. As much as I hate Iain Gray and I just cannot vote for any other of the mainstream parties and the Labour candidate doesn't stand a chance in my constituency so it might be worth helping them out. My regional ballot is going to SSP obviously. Wait, you think Labour are the least worst of the mainstream parties? If you can vote SSP, why can't you vote SNP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pink Freud Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 They have established themselves as a credible party of government, which deflates about 98% of the SCOTLAND WILL DIE IN THE MORNING unionist bullshit at, oh, every Scottish election going. They still shouldn't be losing to Iain fucking Gray though. And that, sadly, shows you all you need to know about the Scottish voter. Realistically, they are the best placed party to govern Scotland from Holyrood. And they have done a pretty decent job in their first stab at it. The Scottish voter, sadly, doesn;t seem to be sophisticated enough to realise that when voting for Holyrood and voting for Westminster, they are voting for two very, very different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uni Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Wait, you think Labour are the least worst of the mainstream parties? If you can vote SSP, why can't you vote SNP? I'm not dropping that idea completely but the whole Donald Trump debacle has put me off the SNP (along with some other of their policies) and when you see articles like this is makes one wonder how committed to independence the SNP really are. I might vote SNP due to the fact its going to be a fight between the Lib Dems and the SNP. For my constituency vote I'm a floating voter. I'm not going to be a c**t and deliberately spoil my ballot, I want to take part in the democratic process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capybara Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I'm not dropping that idea completely but the whole Donald Trump debacle has put me off the SNP (along with some other of their policies) and when you see articles like this is makes one wonder how committed to independence the SNP really are. I might vote SNP due to the fact its going to be a fight between the Lib Dems and the SNP. For my constituency vote I'm a floating voter. I'm not going to be a c**t and deliberately spoil my ballot, I want to take part in the democratic process. The exact reason my mum will not be voting SNP this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Well no, but neither is it disastrous, especially if they lose having increased their vote numbers since 2007. If they increase their vote numbers then I suppose they could say it was some kind of improvement. But if they lose then it's likely to be because Labour got their vote out anyway. It's not likely to be a high turnout all the same so if the SNP increase their vote they will probably be in a very strong position and might well be supported by the minor parties formally or informally like now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 They have established themselves as a credible party of government, which deflates about 98% of the SCOTLAND WILL DIE IN THE MORNING unionist bullshit at, oh, every Scottish election going. I think that's more of a Westminster General Election scare story. No one really cares who is in power in the toytown Parliament. I'd be willing for it to go on rotation - give the Green a shot next time with the play money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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