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myshkin

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The Vuelta is one for the mountain goats this year, even more so than usual.

First show on Betfair has Igor Anton as jolly with Rodriguez, Scarponi, Nibali and Menchov all close up.

None of them can win it.

Anton will fall off at some point.

Rodriguez will never win a grand tour. You can have any price you like with me.

Scarponi I like but rubbish team will cost him.

Nibali I like but he can only grind out mountains. The Spaniards will work him over day after day.

Menchov is too old now and can only follow.

I like Van Den Broeck and Kloden for the win and Kruijswijk for the podium but no bets until we see what team orders are at Radioshack and Rabobank.

Lots of mountain top finishes but....

Stage 8 to San Lorenzo - 1km of 28% ramps

Stage 15 up the Angliru

Look especially brutal.

The finish is also part of the Alto de Abantos climb that has been used in the past.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoJfOFBLLl0&feature=player_detailpage#t=210s

From 3.30ish, ouch!

Agree that J-Rod has no chance, his TT ability is just so bad! He should take a few stages though. I`m in the Anton camp here, hope he can stay on his bike! Nibali will go close though I think. JVB is an unknown quantity after crashing out in France.

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menchov for me.

pretty much a repeat of cadel's performance in the tour.

There is a huge difference though, & that is if Menchov is to win it, he`ll need to take the lead in the TT on stage 10, then hold out against the inevitable Spanish attacks through the very hardest mountain stages. I think Menchov will find it tough, for me he`d have to put major time into the pure climbers, while also having to worry about Nibali`s ability against the clock. If Sastre has anything left, he could be a great foil for Menchov.

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Nibali is looking good for this again, early stages I know, but still.

Very early TBH. He did look good, but other than Anton, all his rivals were there. VDB, Scarponi, J-Rod, Wiggins, Nieve, Martin all within their comfort zone. Menchov lost a bit of time yesterday, he and Anton have it all to do now. Some huge ramps of up to 25% in the final km tomorrow, should be entertaining.

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Very early TBH. He did look good, but other than Anton, all his rivals were there. VDB, Scarponi, J-Rod, Wiggins, Nieve, Martin all within their comfort zone. Menchov lost a bit of time yesterday, he and Anton have it all to do now. Some huge ramps of up to 25% in the final km tomorrow, should be entertaining.

Anton looked sick so hard to see him recovering with no obvious easy stages for a while. Think Nieve might be their team leader from now onwards.

I ended up backing Scarponi and Van Den Broek so I'm happy with how things have gone but the Spaniards have been man of the match so far.

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Anton won on the exact same finish as today last year, with Nibali & J-Rod following. Be interesting to see if Anton struggles and if anyone can stop Rodriguez, Dan Martin perhaps?

Ha not a chance, what a finish from Purito for the win, admirably set up by his Katusha team, & notably Moreno who finished 3rd. Nibali ust tailed off at the end, but nothing too serious. Anton has lost all chance of final overall victory I`d say. Any one from Rodriguez, Nibali, VDB or Scarponi IMO. Could be some great battles over the climbs next week. Sprinters should take over for the next couple of days.

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Brilliant stuff at the end of today`s stage, Liquigas TTT towards the end, only mishap was not getting a time-bonus for Nibali. Sagan takes a maiden GT stage victory, the first of many I think. Nibali nibbles a few seconds from Rodriguez, VDB & Scarponi. Saturday, a 28% wall to finish, Sunday a more traditional MTF, Monday an ITT, should be compelling viewing.

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Bit of a cock-up letting Nibali finish 4th when he could have been in red had he won.

He needed to win to secure red, & with Lastras in the group, they didn`t want to let the chance of a stage for Sagan go, who was easily the best sprinter there. Agnoli taking third from Nibbles was a clear mistake though. Nibali will be more pissed at losing out on the 8 secs bonus for third, than missing the red jersey, my bet is he`ll be in it after the ITT on monday anyway.

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Great ride from Froome to take the red jersey. Wiggins went out too quickly and paid for it at the end, but he still did pretty well. Given how good they have looked in the mountains, they both have to be considered contenders now.

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Great ride from Froome to take the red jersey. Wiggins went out too quickly and paid for it at the end, but he still did pretty well. Given how good they have looked in the mountains, they both have to be considered contenders now.

I'd agree on Froome's ride. Sky still have to stick with Wiggo as the leader here, so long as he's still fit for it, as the whole seasons been based around him.

Would appear to give them options for next season though. Should Froome continue to show up well, he could well be leading the other half of the SKY team into the Giro & Vuelta next year.

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I'd agree on Froome's ride. Sky still have to stick with Wiggo as the leader here, so long as he's still fit for it, as the whole seasons been based around him.

Would appear to give them options for next season though. Should Froome continue to show up well, he could well be leading the other half of the SKY team into the Giro & Vuelta next year.

I've been really surprised with Froome. Being able to climb and time trial is the stuff of GC contenders. Agree that Wiggins will still have to remain team leader but SKY are proving to have definitely the most accomplished squad in Pro cycling

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I'd agree on Froome's ride. Sky still have to stick with Wiggo as the leader here, so long as he's still fit for it, as the whole seasons been based around him.

Would appear to give them options for next season though. Should Froome continue to show up well, he could well be leading the other half of the SKY team into the Giro & Vuelta next year.

That's if Froome stays at Sky, he hasn't got a contract for anybody yet.

Edit: Wiggins now in red, with Froome 2nd @ 7 secs. Nibali still the huge danger @11 secs. For me, 3 key stages remain. Back to back summit finishes, including the fearsome Angliru on Sunday, then next Wednesday`s finish to Pena Cabarga outside Santander. My bet is J-Rod takes a couple of stages, but it`s more a question of whether Nibali can get rid of Wiggins...

Edited by Desert Nomad
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