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The New Raith Rovers Thread


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1 hour ago, Enigma said:

Yeah. No doubt it can. Talk of relegation though is way, way too premature. We saw the same stuff last season an preceded to go on a fairly credible unbeaten run. Although we lost yesterday the performance did allay some of my fears.

I don’t have the stats to hand but if anybody does I’d be interested to know what our xG has been over the first two league games. Keep creating chances like we did against Dundee and I think the real goals will come.

Our xG for yesterday was 1.14 and Dundee’s was 1.44, and last week it was 1.83 and Cove’s was 2.29. 

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5 minutes ago, McGuigan1978 said:

Our xG for yesterday was 1.14 and Dundee’s was 1.44, and last week it was 1.83 and Cove’s was 2.29. 

Cheers. Unlucky not to have scored yesterday then.

Edited by Enigma
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3 hours ago, CountryBumpkin said:

I'd heard last week that only Sim and Morgan went to Cove at board level. Chairman popped off on holiday, no one else went up. Seemed a poor show for the first game of the season more than anything else. But then if any are being shunned, which given how few are there already it feels more understandable. 

I spoke to the Fans Director and the S.L.O. at Cove last week. They were both in the away end and not " booted and suited". 

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11 minutes ago, grumswall said:
1 hour ago, McGuigan1978 said:
Our xG for yesterday was 1.14 and Dundee’s was 1.44, and last week it was 1.83 and Cove’s was 2.29. 

How is xG calculated?

Look here:

https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/
 

In short, the calculation depends upon any of a number of often proprietary models. Simple distillation (from above website):

What is xG?

Very simply, xG (or expected goals) is the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot and the events leading up to it. Some of these characteristics/variables include:

Location of shooter: How far was it from the goal and at what angle on the pitch?

Body part: Was it a header or off the shooter's foot?

Type of pass: Was it from a through ball, cross, set piece, etc?

Type of attack: Was it from an established possession? Was it off a rebound? Did the defense have time to get in position? Did it follow a dribble?

 

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1 minute ago, TxRover said:

Look here:

https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/
 

In short, the calculation depends upon any of a number of often proprietary models. Simple distillation (from above website):

What is xG?

Very simply, xG (or expected goals) is the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot and the events leading up to it. Some of these characteristics/variables include:

Location of shooter: How far was it from the goal and at what angle on the pitch?

Body part: Was it a header or off the shooter's foot?

Type of pass: Was it from a through ball, cross, set piece, etc?

Type of attack: Was it from an established possession? Was it off a rebound? Did the defense have time to get in position? Did it follow a dribble?

 

It misses out one key element: competence of the shooter. 

If that was factored in we would probably have a result of 0.05 for each game. 

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Just now, Ro Sham Bo said:

It misses out one key element: competence of the shooter. 

If that was factored in we would probably have a result of 0.05 for each game. 

As noted in the explanation:

“xG does not take into account the quality of player(s) involved in a particular play. It is an estimate of how the average player or team would perform in a similar situation.”

I’d suggest xG for Raith, outwith Vaughan, should be adjusted by multiplication by .1 or so.

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1 hour ago, TxRover said:

Millen concerns me much more than Dick. Dick can cover at  CB, and has Young behind him (if someone will get that laddie signed up for a full-time contract…cough, cough)…Millen is less versatile and has no direct cover (maybe Dick?) on the team. Here’s a thought, try Millen out at CB, given his height and somewhat ponderous nature, he might work…but then we need a real RB.

Playing a poor right back at centre half, is an absolutely wild shout. 

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Look here:
https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/
 
In short, the calculation depends upon any of a number of often proprietary models. Simple distillation (from above website):
What is xG?
Very simply, xG (or expected goals) is the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot and the events leading up to it. Some of these characteristics/variables include:
Location of shooter: How far was it from the goal and at what angle on the pitch?
Body part: Was it a header or off the shooter's foot?
Type of pass: Was it from a through ball, cross, set piece, etc?
Type of attack: Was it from an established possession? Was it off a rebound? Did the defense have time to get in position? Did it follow a dribble?
 
Cheers tx.

As Calderón says, playing millen at cb is a terrible idea. Seems to be constantly out of position, too slow to actually get back in to a decent position and slows the play down too much. Basically he's a bit shit. Replacing tumilty was always going to be hard but he really isn't up to the task at this level. He actually makes dick look competent.

On the game yesterday O'riordan looked good, Nolan didn't really do much wrong but didnt look as good. Brown broke play up well and kept things simple which is good. Connolly worked his socks off as usual and was unlucky with his shot in the first half and fk. Gullan is not the striker we need although he worked hard and seemed to be annoying the Dundee cbs due to that. Ross had a lack of composure with his chance from the keepers slip but worked hard and looked the only one capable of doing something first half. Easton changed the dynamic of the game. We were able to play through the middle more instead of aimless punts into the channel. I liked that Murray went for it by throwing on more attackers but it did seem to stop a bit of momentum we had going. I felt a goal was coming up until he made the second and third sub.
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4 hours ago, Enigma said:

As for the “banter” aspect to our club, look in the club office and boardroom, not at the football side. Couldn’t even sell out our hospitality for our first home game….

 

3 hours ago, Michael W said:

This sort of thing quickly infests the rest of the operation. 

Too late I fear!

There's blatant elements of out and out ineptitude and a history of systematic lying been going on since before the start of last season. 

But if you can't fill hospitality on the opening home league game of the season against the title favourites then some very serious questions need asking, add in the numerous blank spaces in the track side advertising (19 I think) and it's not questions but P45's that need handing out. 

 

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51 minutes ago, CALDERON said:

Playing a poor right back at centre half, is an absolutely wild shout. 

 

13 minutes ago, grumswall said:

Cheers tx.

As Calderón says, playing millen at cb is a terrible idea. Seems to be constantly out of position, too slow to actually get back in to a decent position and slows the play down too much. Basically he's a bit shit. Replacing tumilty was always going to be hard but he really isn't up to the task at this level. He actually makes dick look competent.

Well, what do we do then? Millen is here two years, we could, I suppose, loan him out if we can find a replacement. He’s tall, a useful CB “talent”, he’s played CB on occasion, and he’s an experienced defender…why not try it out. Bene was no Nureyev either…and it’s not like we have another DM role to toss him into.

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Millen was supposedly Murray's main target for right back so we'll be stuck with him. We just need to hope he somehow comes onto a reasonable game. Even if he didn't, the fact Murray thought he was the answer at right back in the first place hardly breeds confidence in him being able to source a decent replacement anyway. 

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1 hour ago, Surely No said:

I spoke to the Fans Director and the S.L.O. at Cove last week. They were both in the away end and not " booted and suited". 

That is outrageous, other than Sim who has actually paid for a place on the board?

The Fan's rep has the same right's on the board as anyone else. Is this a case of disrespecting the FR because she's a woman? None of the previous ones were treated like that.

In fact if you think about it, if the other directors have no share holdings behind them then the FR actually has more rights than them. The CEO has a place at this table why? The CEO is a paid employee (I notice the CEO has a nice new Merc btw , must be on a good wage there) and as such they will do as they're told, to me that's out and out corruption or at the very least a conflict of interests. CEO needs to go, we have regressed since any of them came in but more in the last 12 months than even during Eric Drysdales tenure.

All in all? Just a fecking shambles of an operation

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11 minutes ago, Scottydog said:

 

Too late I fear!

There's blatant elements of out and out ineptitude and a history of systematic lying been going on since before the start of last season. 

But if you can't fill hospitality on the opening home league game of the season against the title favourites then some very serious questions need asking, add in the numerous blank spaces in the track side advertising (19 I think) and it's not questions but P45's that need handing out. 

 

Some pretty big accusations there Scotty, without elaboration. 

As for hospitality and adverts, you are aware of the current economic crisis aren't you? People are making decisions on how they spend their money. Spending it at the Rovers is probably not high up the list of priorities.

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1 minute ago, Scottydog said:

That is outrageous, other than Sim who has actually paid for a place on the board?

The Fan's rep has the same right's on the board as anyone else. Is this a case of disrespecting the FR because she's a woman? None of the previous ones were treated like that.

In fact if you think about it, if the other directors have no share holdings behind them then the FR actually has more rights than them. The CEO has a place at this table why? The CEO is a paid employee (I notice the CEO has a nice new Merc btw , must be on a good wage there) and as such they will do as they're told, to me that's out and out corruption or at the very least a conflict of interests. CEO needs to go, we have regressed since any of them came in but more in the last 12 months than even during Eric Drysdales tenure.

All in all? Just a fecking shambles of an operation

Maybe the fans rep wants to be with the...fans, on a match day?

I remember seeing previous supporters director in the pub at Arbroath pre game.  You may be reading far, far too much into something.

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It isn't all doom n gloom at this stage. Far from it. Theres been enough to suggest that given time Murray will get things working. Bringing on Easton yesterday was a positive change that impacted the game well. The two cbs he's signed have both looked relatively competent. Brown had a good game yesterday and we did create chances.
I don't rate millen but iv only seen him play twice. If he gets time he can put a decent enough cross in but we need people on the end of them. Give him time to think about anything defensively and he's fucked though.
I think a more narrow defensive approach with a press could work better with what we have available. Will be interesting to see how ngwenya does at lb. He was a bit out of his depth yesterday at lw. Cammy kerr is an experienced rb though so was always a tough ask of him.

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5 minutes ago, North Terrace Gazza said:

Out of interest guys why did you not re-sign Poplatnik?

Impossible to say but it could be down to cost of wages (still paying he who shall not be named) could also be Murray isn’t looking at him. He played for McGlynn, Murray may have his own targets. Could also be Poplatnik isn’t interested.  I’d be happy with Poplatnik back but we definitely need another striker as soon as we can. 

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On yesterday, hate to say it but I thought both teams were pretty poor and I don’t see that Dundee team storming the league unless they bring in a few more players. The better team definitely won the game but we could easily have taken something with a bit of luck. We’re two games in and yes we’re bottom but let’s not hit the panic button just yet.  Murray is still trying to bring players in and the two CBs look up to the job. I’m not convinced by Millen seems very nervous and negative but it’s early days. Get a striker in and Mathews and Spencer back and we’ll see where we are. For me this is a transition season where Murray just needs to avoid the relegation battle. No doubt next two weeks are huge games and we definitely need to see an improvement on the pitch but let’s hold off n the lynch mob just yet. Murray improved Airdrie given time and we need to give him time too.  

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I seen last season as a transition season under mcglynn, expecting him to still be here this season and have us pushing on. The run we went on early on changed that perception but with a new manager it definitely is a transition season. We'd all love to be challenging for the league but it probably wouldn't have happened regardless of who the manager is this season. Give Murray time and he will get it right. We've had two league games and people are talking about must win games. That's just nonsense.

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