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3 hours ago, hk blues said:

I'm shite at math but from what I understand the chances that any specific number will come out is 1 in 50 but the chance that that same number will come out twice in a row is 1 in 2500.  

It's like the probability that 1.2.3,4,5 and 6 will be drawn in the lottery - each one individually is as likely as any other but the pattern is not.  

Aye, it depends on when you're applying the condition.

If you're standing with a bag of 50 balls and say "what's the probability of me drawing 14 twice in a row?" then you're right, it's 1 in 2,500. You've got to make the first 1 in 50 shot, then put the ball back in and shuffle the bag, and then make another 1 in 50 shot.

If you were to draw the number 27, and then say "what is the probability of me drawing 27 again?", then it's 1 in 50, as ultimately you could apply the same conditional probability to whichever number you drew out first.

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Just now, Gaz said:

Aye, it depends on when you're applying the condition.

If you're standing with a bag of 50 balls and say "what's the probability of me drawing 14 twice in a row?" then you're right, it's 1 in 2,500. You've got to make the first 1 in 50 shot, then put the ball back in and shuffle the bag, and then make another 1 in 50 shot.

If you were to draw the number 27, and then say "what is the probability of me drawing 27 again?", then it's 1 in 50, as ultimately you could apply the same conditional probability to whichever number you drew out first.

Exactly.  I remember having a long, long discussion with an old colleague about the 1-6 lottery numbers coming up and he said it was as likely as any 6 numbers.  I couldn't get my ahead around that. 

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With the regard to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 thing then it's true that the odds of them coming out (in any order) are the same as any other combination of six numbers. However it's a bad idea to pick them in the lottery as so many people do that if you should hit the jackpot it will be split so many ways as to be almost worthless.

Which is also why you're likely to get a larger share if you choose numbers above 31 as you won't have to share with folk who use birthdays as their numbers.

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1 hour ago, MixuFruit said:

I would always pick high numbers reasoning the weight of the ink on the balls would mean they'd be ever so slightly heavier and so they'd be picked more often. Amazingly I am yet to win big.

A mate of mine told me her mum and auntie picked exactly the same six numbers (birthdays). When it was pointed out the logic that if they won they'd both have won they said they would have shared the money anyway.

It was then explains that if that was the case they'd have been better picking two sets of numbers to double their chances they couldn't understand it.

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I'd like to do some statistical analysis on this random chance of turning up numbers. The bigger the number the better the random chance so it would be useful to have a sample of something like, say, bank account details.

Please PM your bank account details in the name of mathematical research. Cheers.

 

Edited by tamthebam
Spellung
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1 hour ago, tamthebam said:

I'd like to do some statistical analysis on this random chance of turning up numbers. The bigger the number the better the random chance so it would be useful to have a sample of something like, say, bank account details.

Please PM your bank account details in the name of mathematical research. Cheers.

Sure. My account number is is XXXXXXXX and sort code is XX-XX-XX.

EDIT: Ach, I forgot if you type them in Chrome it automatically censors them.

Edited by Gaz
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2 hours ago, Gaz said:

Sure. My account number is is XXXXXXXX and sort code is XX-XX-XX.

EDIT: Ach, I forgot if you type them in Chrome it automatically censors them.

Thanks for all the kisses. I love you too :wub:

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7 hours ago, Gaz said:

A mate of mine told me her mum and auntie picked exactly the same six numbers (birthdays). When it was pointed out the logic that if they won they'd both have won they said they would have shared the money anyway.

It was then explains that if that was the case they'd have been better picking two sets of numbers to double their chances they couldn't understand it.

Beginning to think Orwell was on to something with his description of lotteries.

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A mate of mine told me her mum and auntie picked exactly the same six numbers (birthdays). When it was pointed out the logic that if they won they'd both have won they said they would have shared the money anyway.
It was then explains that if that was the case they'd have been better picking two sets of numbers to double their chances they couldn't understand it.


Two women absolutely nailed on to steal if they ever went on Goldenballs
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20 hours ago, MixuFruit said:

I would always pick high numbers reasoning the weight of the ink on the balls would mean they'd be ever so slightly heavier and so they'd be picked more often. Amazingly I am yet to win big.

The SFA got away with that for years, keeping the arsecheeks apart in cup draws.

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The SFA got away with that for years, keeping the arsecheeks apart in cup draws.
A couple of years back someone (presumably Mr Jibee as it seems like his usual high quality input but perhaps not) posted a great breakdown of OF draws in major cups over the years and found their separation almost at lottery winning levels for a couple of decades.

I could be remembering wrongly, hopefully someone will have it stored away somewhere and repost it.
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3 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

Anyone have any experience of Cazoo? They are currently giving me the runaround and I am unsure about whether I can expect a speedy resolution. My gut instinct is leaning towards telling them to f**k off tbh.

Thumb pressure on the hole helps to make a better sound if I remember right. 

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On 09/01/2021 at 00:02, Hedgecutter said:

Cheers, although I found that initially and found it pretty vague regarding tracks.

The track is neither here nor there. You have a right of responsible access unless you are going through a working farmyard or a private garden. You can also access fields but you should keep to the field margins. 

Give us a Google map 

Edited by invergowrie arab
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