Cyclizine Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Alert Mongoose said: Thanks but I’m still confused. If the pick is independent why is picking it out a second time less likely? I’m probably being thick here. Also I’m assuming this isn’t the same for the numbers on a roulette table? Does the starting point of the spin change that? It's not less likely, the chance of picking it the second time is still 1/50. The chance of picking any given number on any given attempt is always 1/50. If you're asking what is the chance of picking the same number twice in a row: i.e. picking it out, putting it back and picking it out again, then it's 1/2500 because the chance of doing it each time is 1/50, so you multiply the probabilities together. A roulette table is the same, it just has fewer numbers to pick. It should be just as random. Just because a number has come up before, doesn't mean it's less likely to be picked again, if the picks are truly independent. Edited January 6, 2021 by Cyclizine 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonD Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 The thing I've never been able to get my head round is the one about the man who has two kids. If you know that one is a girl, what are the odds that the other is a boy? Apparently it's 2/3 because you can have the combinations Boy-Boy, Boy-Girl, Girl-Boy and Girl-Girl. Knowing that one is a girl eliminates the first possibility but the others remain. It changes if you specify that the older child is a girl which knocks out the second possibility too, but I can't figure out why this is so important. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonD Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 13 hours ago, Mr. Alli said: Are 24hr Asda etc now shutting early again? Why do the doors on 24hr Asda have locks? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamthebam Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 15 hours ago, Zen Archer Esq. said: Did August Darnell ever resolve his dispute with the CSA regarding Annie? Did Dionne Warwick ever get to San Jose? And isn't it fortunate she wasn't going to Cockermouth? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 13 hours ago, Alert Mongoose said: If there are 50 numbers in a hat and you pick out the number 20 and then put it back in again are the odds that it would come out on the next pick the same as any other number? What sort of hat? -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 (edited) .... and what method is being used for the mixing? Are we presuming that these numbers are on equally sized paper tickets, or are they sellotaped-together fridge magnet numbers, the size and shape of which will play a factor (9s and 6s are more likely to become entangled than 1s and 7s). So many fundamental questions remain unanswered here. Eta: took me long enough to get my head around the Monty Hall problem. Mathematical concepts and I aren't a particularly great mix I have to admit Edited January 6, 2021 by Hedgecutter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alert Mongoose Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 hour ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said: Always find it interesting how people's brains work on this question. One way you might look at it would be as a question of timing - when are you making the prediction. E.g if you roll a 6 and then go "what are the chances of rolling another 6?", its 1 in 6. But if you make the prediction before you start and say "what are the chances of rolling 2 6s?", it's 1 in 36 because 2 separate things need to go your way, whereas in the first question the first roll has already gone your way. It's the compounding effect of doing things in sequence Yeah, that’s where I was getting stuck. I was thinking at the point of picking out the second ball. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alert Mongoose Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: What sort of hat? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Alert Mongoose said: Yeah, that’s where I was getting stuck. I was thinking at the point of picking out the second ball. That was my impression too. I guess another example would be when folk say that the odds of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6 getting drawn out of the lottery machine are just as likely as any other combination*, but the odds of them being drawn out in that very specific order are significantly lower. *did this not happen fairly recently in Greece or some place like that? Eta: It was the South African lottery in which 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 & 10 came out in December... although the fact that 20 people got this, which was statistically mental for any draw, resulted in allegations of fraud over it. Unthinkable in a place like South Africa. Edited January 6, 2021 by Hedgecutter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin.Hood Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 hours ago, Mr. Alli said: @Robin.Hood, are Tesco still open 24hrs? As of next week we will be shutting at 10pm and opening at 6am 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 See if Windows is installing an update as part of shutting down the computer, how long should you wait before giving up and switching it off? Mine's been at it for over four hours now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaz Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 (edited) On 06/01/2021 at 00:01, Alert Mongoose said: If there are 50 numbers in a hat and you pick out the number 20 and then put it back in again are the odds that it would come out on the next pick the same as any other number? Yes. EDIT: Assuming the numbers are shuffled / jumbled up sufficiently for the pick to be random. Edited January 7, 2021 by Gaz 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said: See if Windows is installing an update as part of shutting down the computer, how long should you wait before giving up and switching it off? Mine's been at it for over four hours now. Only time I had anything more than half an hour was when they gave the free upgrade to Windows 10. Thinking about it 10 minutes max since. Edited January 7, 2021 by welshbairn 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hk blues Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 10 hours ago, Gaz said: Yes. EDIT: Assuming the numbers are shuffled / jumbled up sufficiently for the pick to be random. Whoa...I thought I had it and now you're saying it's equally likely to come out twice in a row as not? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 That was my impression too. I guess another example would be when folk say that the odds of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6 getting drawn out of the lottery machine are just as likely as any other combination*, but the odds of them being drawn out in that very specific order are significantly lower. 720 times more unlikely Although still the same as any other permutation being drawn out in any given exact order 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mathematics Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 It pleases me that there’s a lovely maths conversation going on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gus Setsniffer Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 06/01/2021 at 13:26, tamthebam said: Did Dionne Warwick ever get to San Jose? And isn't it fortunate she wasn't going to Cockermouth? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 06/01/2021 at 13:44, Hedgecutter said: That was my impression too. I guess another example would be when folk say that the odds of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6 getting drawn out of the lottery machine are just as likely as any other combination*, but the odds of them being drawn out in that very specific order are significantly lower. *did this not happen fairly recently in Greece or some place like that? Eta: It was the South African lottery in which 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 & 10 came out in December... although the fact that 20 people got this, which was statistically mental for any draw, resulted in allegations of fraud over it. Unthinkable in a place like South Africa. Richard Feynman once started a lecture on probability with "Something incredible just happened to me on the way here, I was walking through the parking lot and passed a car with a plate that read "6GDG486". What are the chances of that?!?" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 How does right to roam apply to farm tracks, particularly the 'aggregate with the grassy stripe down the middle' type that leads past (but not through) a farmyard? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19QOS19 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Why do the doors on 24hr Asda have locks?Otherwise they'd get raided on the days of the year they close. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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