If I was to carry on playing the way I have been this month my current HC would be on the low side, tbh.
I say it every year, I know that I can put in decent rounds when I play well. I went round the front nine in 44 during the week. Admittedly off the yellows, playing on my own with no pressure. My problem is partly that when I play in medals if i start off badly or when the first bad hole comes up and I post a big score, then I let it get to me and the rest of the round goes to pot.
Every year I say my aim is to get my handicap under 20, and I know that when my game is good I should be down in the mid to low teens, as I regularly hold my own against mates who are in that range. It's a combination of not playing nearly enough and occasionally posting horrific numbers that stops that.