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yoda

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Posts posted by yoda

  1. On 09/03/2022 at 12:05, Jimi Shandrix said:

    Nate Scheible's 2017 cassette only release "Fairfax" has finally been given a vinyl release. Mine turned up this morning. The music is all woozy vibraphones and hazy sax and electronics with spoken word parts lifted from a cassette love letter found in a North Virginia charity shop. I cannot begin to describe how beautiful this record is. One of these rare albums that when it's over you lift the needle, turn it over and start again.

    This is some good stuff.

  2. Ghost of Tsushima was a gorgeous looking game with some really cool quirks. But... the initial charm soon wore off and I got bored after a few hours of the same repetitive tasks*. However, I had come straight from playing the base game of The Witcher 3 so the next thing was always going to be dull in comparison.

    *I guess that's the trap most open world games fall into but something like HZD or Spider-Man at least managed to be quirky enough to maintain my interest. Assassin's Creed, on the other hand, did not.

     

  3. 11 hours ago, Jedi said:

    What are the chances of China coming in with a massive 'strategic' loan for Moscow in the near future as well if the banks are still under pressure.

    I'd say quite low. Not impossible but still low.

    There's no real benefit to China of handing out massive loans - and potentially damaging economic relations with the US and Europe.

     

  4. 1 hour ago, Tattie36 said:

    It’s all indicative of our society at the moment though isn’t it. Virtue signalling and cancel culture. I’ve got a couple of Russian wrist watches, I wonder how long it’ll be before I’m refused service in a pub if I’m wearing one? I’m joking of course but it wouldn’t surprise me if it got to that.

    vyYlNArToW3SzszF.jpg

  5. 32 minutes ago, renton said:

    I'm not sure there has ever been a realistic scenario where it would stop at tactical nukes deployed on the battlefield.

    The "escalate to de-escalate" logic has been discussed in the past. I don't know if it has ever been official Russian policy but I wouldn't say it's necessarily unrealistic logic.   

  6. 2 hours ago, Stellaboz said:

    Why is the assumption that if NATO enforces a no-fly zone over Ukraine that Putin will get the nukes out? Surely to f**k he's not that stupid? He's mad, but not stupid. 

    One of the posters more informed on military weaponry can probably provide a better answer but not all Russia's nuclear weapons are big "Hiroshima style" (a rubbish comparison but you get the jist) bombs. They've got low yield battlefield weapons that they could use - or threaten to use - and that's presumably what the escalation would be to (rather than hitting the big city vaporising red button).

    If you've got more of these battlefield nukes than NATO (and maybe they do) then it's a credible threat that doesn't guarantee a escalation from NATO (because how do you escalate from there, and do you even want to?).

     

  7. 8 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

    but i do believe that the US has some kind of statutory obligation to defend Taiwan, which essentially gives it NATO protection without the status. 

    It's not (as far as I'm aware but it's been a while since I've covered this) written in stone that the US will actively defend Taiwan. It's vague language about providing them with the means to defend themselves without expressly stating that they'll intervene. "Strategic ambiguity" has been the policy since 1979.

    They had to backtrack on Biden's comments a few months ago about a "commitment" to Taiwan. 

  8. 6 minutes ago, virginton said:

    None of this excuses Putin from culpability - it is however the critical long-term context in which this conflict has developed. 

    This is obviously the important, nuanced, part that's maybe not been emphasised by some folk (not necessarily on here, but elsewhere online and in sections of the media).

     

  9. From Tooze (The Great And The Powerful):

    Quote

    It isn’t the financial sanctions alone that explain this dangerous escalation, but the combination of all three factors - Russian military frustration, increasingly emphatic Western commitment to backing Ukraine’s remarkable resistance and the sanctions on top. This forces Putin to look for a qualitatively different means to respond to an increasingly existential situation.

    --

    As far as the economy is concerned, the central question is what will happen in Russia what will happen in Moscow and in financial markets on Monday?

    Will economic and financial chaos add a qualitatively new element to the escalatory logic. Clearly, at this point the West really is aiming to inflict heavy damage. But we should be prepared for the fallout, forgive the phrase, if things get chaotic next week. Are we ready for a further escalation of nuclear threats?

    --

    In 2014 Russia suffered a devaluation of massive proportions, but the sanctions were much less intense and the military battle was going in its favor. We have nothing that tells us how Putin’s nuclear-armed regime reacts under this kind of financial pressure, when it is also facing an existential military crisis.

     

    An interesting read (link) but from before the latest round of sanctions aimed at the RCB were announced.

    The stuff from clever people seems to point to bank runs and a currency collapse at some point soon.

  10. On the China and "Taiwan / Ukraine" thing (which seems like a lazy comparison). There's the small issue of Russia actively backing and arming secessionists in Donetsk and Luhansk. I can't imagine that's the sort of thing China really wants to see (IMUAAO (in my uninformed armchair analyst opinion)).

    The things I've read seem to suggest that China will remain as "neutral" as they can. 

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