Jump to content

Gordon EF

Gold Members
  • Content Count

    6,757
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

Gordon EF last won the day on August 28

Gordon EF had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

5,382 Excellent

2 Followers

About Gordon EF

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
    http://
  • ICQ
    0

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Edinburgh
  • My Team
    East Fife

Recent Profile Visitors

16,570 profile views
  1. Clyde 2-0 Peterhead Cove 2-1 Partick Dumbarton 0-2 Airdrie Falkirk 2-1 East Fife Forfar 0-2 Montrose
  2. Mid Scotland and Fife https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid_Scotland_and_Fife_(Scottish_Parliament_electoral_region)#2016_Scottish_Parliament_election The SNP took 8 constituencies here in 2016, with the Lib Dems picking up 1. In the list, Tories took 4, Labour took 2 with the Greens picking up one. The solitary pro-Yes list seat is the 7th and final one which went to the Greens. Realistically, Labour are the biggest threat here, especially if they strike out again in all 9 constituencies. With the SNP effectively needing more extra votes than there are eligible voters in the largest town in this region, this could well be the area of Scotland where 2nd vote SNP is the biggest wasted vote of all. Pro-indy Tactical Voting Verdict: Utter no-brainer. It has to be the Greens. They beat Labour to the last list seat by a whisker in 2016. Every pro-Yes voter giving their second vote to the SNP is inviting Labour to take that seat and actually reduce the independence majority in Mid Scotland and Fife.
  3. I like your optimism but I'm not quite sure we're quite at the stage of a total Labour wipe out in Holyrood.
  4. Highlands & Islands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highlands_and_Islands_(Scottish_Parliament_electoral_region)#2016_election The SNP took 6 of 8 constituencies here in 2016, with the Lib Dems picking up 2. In the list, Labour took 3, the Tories took 2 with the SNP and Greens picking up one apiece. This is an interesting one. This shows Labour taking the 7th seat and only the Tories close behind but that hides the fact that in 2016 this was actually an incredibly close three-way shoot out for the last 2 seats between SNP, Labour and the Tories. With the SNP and Labour taking seats in the 6th and 7th round. Pro-indy Tactical Voting Verdict: Given that the Greens safely secured one list seat before the SNP did in the list rounds and the Tories were actually pretty close to taking the SNP's solitary list seat, I'd say it's better to play it safe, vote SNP and make sure they pick up at least one list MSP.
  5. Of course, all this can change and polls should be taken into account but it's fairly uncontroversial to say that in large parts of Scotland pro-Yes voters are far better giving the Greens their second vote rather than effectively watching tens of thousands of SNP list votes get flushed down the toilet for no return. I'm just trying to demonstrate that with figures.
  6. Glasgow https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_(Scottish_Parliament_electoral_region)#2016_Scottish_Parliament_election The SNP took all 9 constituencies here in 2016. In the list, Labour took 4, the Tories took 2 and the Greens took 1. Like Central Scotland, the Tories also took the 7th and final list seat in Glasgow. The SNP needed an absolutely eye-watering number of extra votes to take it. In fact, with the Greens already securing Patrick Harvie's list seat quite comfortably in the 4th round, they need a fair number to get a second list MSP here. Pro-indy Tactical Voting Verdict: Even if they were to lose a seat or two to Labour in the constituencies, it would take something special for the SNP to get an extra list seat in Glasgow so a vote for them is wasted. Potentially a long shot but the Greens offer much better odds of punting a Tory out of Holyrood.
  7. Central Scotland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Scotland_(Scottish_Parliament_electoral_region)#2016_Scottish_Parliament_election The SNP took all 9 constituencies here in 2016. In the list, Labour took 4, the Tories took 3 and no other parties got any. As the results form the algorithm show, the Tories took that 7th and final list seat. The SNP would have needed more than 16,000 extra votes on top of the 129,000 they already got to have taken that final seat from the Tories. Labour would have needed more than 5,000 extra votes to take a 5th list seat. Whilst with only 1,812 more votes, the Greens could have nicked that last list seat from the Tories. Pro-indy Tactical Voting Verdict: You'd be absolutely mental to give the SNP your second vote in Central Scotland. The Greens have a fantastic chance of taking a seat from the Tories here in 2021. The SNP took 47% of list votes last time and got nothing, the Greens got 4.7% and almost took a seat. Any pro-indy voter not going 2nd vote Green in Central Scotland needs a boot in the baws.
  8. The mechanism for deciding list MSPs is relatively complicated and, if you want to vote tactically, it's very difficult sometimes to decide which party needs your vote most or which party has the best chance of keeping or taking list seats. Because I'm bored and a massive nerd, I decided to write some code which would help out. Essentially, I've taken the 2016 election results from each region of Scotland and simulated the process for assigning list MSPs within that region. In each region there are 9 constituencies and 7 list seats available. Once all the constituencies are called, the 7 list seats are assigned in sequential order. In each of the seven rounds the list votes for each party is divided by the total number of seats already assigned to that party plus one. So as a really simple example, in the Central Scotland region, the SNP won all 9 constituencies in 2016. SNP got 129,000 list votes and so in the first round their total is (129k/10 = 12.9k) Labour got 67k list votes and so their total is (67/1 = 67k) Tories got 44k list votes and so their total is (67/1 = 44k) Greens got 13k list votes and so their total is (13k/1 = 13k) Lib Dems.... lol, only kidding. So Labour wins the first list seat and in the second round their total becomes (67k/2 = 33.5k) as they now have one extra seat. In the second round, the Tories would have the largest score and so be assigned the second seat, etc, etc. For tactical voting, the most important factor is who got the 7th and final seat and how close everyone else was to getting it. For example, if you want to vote tactically to maximise pro-independence MSPs, if a pro-independence party won that 7th seat, you want to vote for them to make sure they hold it in 2021. If a unionist party won that 7th seat, you want to vote for the pro-independence party that came closest to taking that final seat off them. Vice versa that if you want to vote for pro-union parties. This started off as me wanting actual evidence in deciding whether to go second vote SNP or Green in Lothian next year but the code can easily be run for each region so I'm going to run through each region and see what it says.
  9. Aye. It's similar to a lot of scenarios when you're interviewing / job hunting. If someone's going to hold something against you for some utterly stupid reason, it's frustrating but that person is probably an idiot and you're better off not working for that company in the long term.
  10. Aye, that came off like I was aiming that at you. Meant it more as a general point and just replied to yours.
  11. The SNP got almost 120,000 second votes in Lothian and got 0 list MSPs. Given that they'll likely take Edinburgh Central from the Tories, it'll be even harder for them to get a list MSP this time. The Greens got 34,500 second votes and took 2 list MSPs from it. That very last list seat (Wightman's) was taken by the Greens and it is very much up for grabs between the Tories, Labour and possibly even the Lib Dems. It would be disappointing for the SNP to take Edinburgh Central off the Tories, only for the Tories to nick a fourth list seat away from the Greens all because tens of thousands of people wasted their second vote on the SNP.
  12. "Saltire / Union Flag" twitter howling into the ether.
  13. Realistically, employers don't expect folk to work at the same place until retirement. In an era where the average time spent in a job is something like 2.5 years, no employer with an ounce of sense should be thinking "why hire a 35 year old, I'm only going to get 30 years of work out of them. I could get 44 years out of this 21 year old." The only issue might be if you're switching careers and are starting off in a more junior position than you were in your previous jobs, how you might handle that. As long as you come across as someone who's making the switch because it's something you really want to do and are prepared to learn and start a bit closer to the bottom, it should be more of an advantage than a disadvantage.
  14. ISP are fringe nutters but I'd disagree with it having to be both votes in SNP. There's plenty of areas where SNP/Green is the more sensible pro-independence choice. I'm in Lothian. The SNP will win so many FPTP seats that getting one MSP off the list will be incredibly unlikely. A Green list vote is probably more likely to get a pro-independence MSP elected.
×
×
  • Create New...