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Gordon EF

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Gordon EF last won the day on November 24 2020

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About Gordon EF

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  • Birthday 17/02/1985

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  1. The way I understand it, being immune doesn't mean you can't ever technically become infected. It basically means if you do get infected, your immune system will likely nuke the fucker before you ever notice it or pass it on. But aye, I don't think the Helen Lovejoying is particularly useful. They should say it makes transmission vastly less likely.
  2. This. There are so many factors that go into which areas see higher or lower transmission rates. Human behaviour is a massive one but unpicking that from all the others would be an incredibly difficult task. It's possible, or even probable that poorer sections of society are statistically a bit more likely to ignore the rules overall but like everything, there's very good reason for that. You'll find lower levels of education, lower levels of engagement with sources of news and society in general, fewer options to keep entertained at home, and probably a far lower feeling of having a 'stake' in society in general. These aren't symptoms of the type of people they are, they're symptoms of the disgusting levels of inequality in our society.
  3. Ah, get it now. Fair enough. There is no existing EU requirement for 55% of the value to be sourced from the EU but now that threshold has been imposed on British exports, that incentivises Nissan to move the battery manufacture to inside the EU/UK. Jesus, that is some convoluted shit and poorly explained in the BBC article. Chalk one up for Brexit I guess.
  4. I'm not even sure if you're being serious here. If Brexit had not happened, the UK would be in the EU and so Sunderland would still have satisfied the rule about parts from the EU or UK. Nothing about Brexit made this more favourable for Nissan, it's just that the specifics of the trade deal meant that Brexit didn't make it more unfavourable.
  5. Yep. And if Sunderland was struck off the face off the Earth by an asteroid, they'd have pulled out as well. Calling this "as a result of Brexit" is dressing up a draw as a win.
  6. I'm not sure the batteries being moved are "a result of Brexit", as in, it sounds like something they'd have done whether the UK was in or out.
  7. I don't think Andrew Neil deserves the benefit of the doubt because I don't like him.
  8. Yeah, I'm not saying you could add them up into one super poll but the margin of error would still be less than with one individual poll one fifth of the size. Also, I'd imagine that diversity in the wording would actually increase the confidence in the result. One poll with misleading wording could throw up an anomaly. 5 different wordings / methodologies giving similar results would essentially be a form of corroboration. Also, you've got the slight complication that looking at a trend of 5-rolling average polls actually isn't just 5 polls contributing. If we looked at the previous 10 5-rolling average polls, there's actually 14 polls contributing to that so you'd have to weight their margins of error. I'm sure there's some standard way of of doing it but I suspect trying to figure out if that trend is significant is fiendishly difficult.
  9. QoSAnon - Secretly waging war on a cabal of Satan-worshipping Angus paedophile elites.
  10. I'm all for making this a stats chat. Are you sure about that 2.5%? I did a quick calculation and got 1.4%, which tallies with some other sources. I do get that it's not quite a nice as saying well 1k is now 5k and so we drop from 3 to 1.4. However, it's definitely not the case that margins of error just don't reduce. For example, polls that were taken years apart would have a much higher margin of error than polls taken on consecutive days. I certainly don't know what the formula to work that out would be there must be some kind of error calculation inverse to how long ago the poll was taken. For example, polls are reported as being taken over a number of days. We don't say that the MoE for a 1000 person poll is the same as for a 1 person poll because the 1000 responders didn't answer simultaneously.
  11. Of course it's not enough to say with any certainty that this is what's happening but it absolutely is a reasonable inference to draw. Individual polls might have this 3% margin of error but rolling averages have much smaller margins. I don't know what the probability would be on testing the null hypothesis 'There's no movement of voters from SNP/SNP to SNP/Green' but with the trends shown and the margin of error on 5 poll rolling averages I'd bet very decent money it comes up as statistically significant or damn close.
  12. Yep. That looks pretty neat. Brexit and the pandemic pulling a few of the Lab2Con 2016 voters back towards Labour? Or, more accurately, away from the Tories with only one place left to go.
  13. I don't think this is an either/or thing. Going purely by the plots, both of these things are happening. In the second half of 2020: The SNP constituency % has risen about 1.5%. The Green constituency % has fallen about 1.5%. The SNP regional % has fallen about 3%. The Green regional % has risen about 2.5%. Whilst it's far too neat to say these are all just a solid group of pro-independence supporters shuffling their votes around to make the most electoral impact and, of course, they're not the same people being polled. It does suggest that both reasonably significant numbers 'double Greeners' and some 'double SNPers' are moving towards SNP/Green.
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