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Edgar81

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Everything posted by Edgar81

  1. Could that be achieved for the 23/24 season?
  2. In 100000 runs, this 8-1 happened only 21 times. I never said it predicted the future The program generates scores randomly based on formula explained earlier. Most probable results were: 9.297% - 1-1 8.532% - 2-1 7.528% - 1-2 7.111% - 2-2 5.522% - 1-0 5.272% - 3-1 5.142% - 2-0 5.04% - 0-1 4.435% - 3-2 4.185% - 1-3
  3. I used to own this blog - that's where I started running simulations for various competitions. Based on a list of 41292 Scottish results and Roonba's club ranking (Mark has a problem with the certificate of the website) I determined a function using polynomial regression that allows me to compute the expected goals scored between 2 teams knowing their ratings. The program generates a random number and based on that value it determines the score of a match. I do this for the remaining matches in HL/LL playoff, EoS, WoS. This is repeated 100000 times.
  4. Sorry, I don't understand your question (Apologies, English is not my first language). When a team plays at home - the rating is increased by 70 points before computing the points exchanged. Update after yesterday's matches: 77.769% - Auchinleck Talbot 22.22% - Darvel 0.011% - Pollok
  5. Nope. It's on my computer. Mark from Roonba provided me with all the results so I was able to come up with a function for the sims. Don't know if there will be a link at some point on the Roonba site, as it seems nobody is interested.
  6. Over 100000 sims (using the Roonba Scottish club ranking): 89.865% - Auchinleck Talbot 9.802% - Darvel 0.333% - Pollok
  7. Over 100000 sims (using the Roonba Scottish club ranking): Tranent Juniors - 81.668% Penicuik Athletic - 11.756% Linlithgow Rose - 6.576%
  8. Over 100000 sims (using the Roonba Scottish club ranking): Cowdenbeath's opponent: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 59.062%, Fraserburgh 40.938% To win the playoff: 47.461% - Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 29.303% - Fraserburgh 23.236% - Cowdenbeath
  9. Over 100000 sims (using the Roonba Scottish club ranking): BOD: 99,772% FW: 0,228%
  10. Based on the Roonba's Scottish club ranking and assuming all clubs have a license starting from next season, this should be the list of teams in 2027-2028. Albion Rovers Berwick Rangers Bo'ness United Broomhill Caledonian Braves Celtic U20 Civil Service Strollers Clydebank Cowdenbeath Darvel East Fife East Stirlingshire Gala Fairydean Rovers Rangers U20 Spartans Stirling Albion Tranent Juniors University of Stirling
  11. Based on the Roonba's Scottish club ranking and assuming all clubs have a license starting from next season, this should be the list of teams in 2027-2028. Banks o' Dee Brechin City Brora Rangers Carnoustie Panmure Clachnacuddin Dundee North End East Craigie Elgin City Formartine United Forres Mechanics Fraserburgh Huntly Inverurie Loco Works Keith Lochee United Nairn County Rothes Wick Academy
  12. What about relegation/promotion starting from next season? Has there been any official announcement regarding this? Thank you!
  13. Couple of questions from outside of Scotland. Aren't the North Caledonian winners also involved? Based on wiki, there's no team in the Midlands league with a SFA license - wasn't that a prerequisite for participating in the playoff? A bit disappointed that there are only 2 licensed teams at tier 6 in the North (Banks O' Dee and Golspie Sutherland) .
  14. How about taking the results of the last 10 years in Scottish football (all of it - SPFL, HL, LL, EOS, SOS, Juniors etc. - including cups), running a certain number of iterations using an Elo-like rating system and see what you get? Based on the output you could build leagues (from a certain level - perhaps below HL/LL) based on real team strength and avoid rugby scores. Just a thought from someone outside Scotland.
  15. Implementing a 3-region (North-East-West) split below the Championship, based on standings at the end of last season. I merged League One, League Two, Highland League, Lowland League, East of Scotland League and South of Scotland League into two levels. The last team in the Championship would be relegated to L3, while the 3 L3 winners + the second last team in the Championship would be drawn in to 2 ties, with the aggregate winners going to the Championship. 1. Level 3 10/10/10 + Level 4 16/18/18 2. Level 3 12/12/12 + Level 4 12/18/16
  16. Have you ever looked at other European countries with population around 5 million? Scotland Population density map (Wikipedia) Population: 5,295,000 Area: 78,782 km2 Density: 67.2/km2 First, the only one with no actual pyramid: Republic of Ireland Population: 4,635,400 Area: 70,273 km2 Density: 65.3/km2 Level 1: 12 teams Level 2: 8 teams Now the others: Croatia Population: 4,284,889 Area: 56,594 km2 Density: 75.8/km2 Level 1: 10 teams Level 2: 12 teams Level 3: 3 groups: West (16) / East (16) / South (18) Level 4: County leagues (one for each of the 21 counties) Norway Population density map (Wikipedia) Population: 5,165,802 Area: 385,178 km2 Density: 15.5/km2 League system (Wikipedia) Level 1: 16 Level 2: 16 Level 3: 4 groups of 14 teams each Level 4: 12 groups of 12-14 teams each Level 5 and below: Regional football unions Slovakia Population: 5,415,949 Area: 49,035 km2 Density: 111/km2 Level 1: 12 Level 2: 2 groups: 12 / 12 Level 3: 4 groups: 16 / 16 / 16/ 18 Level 4: 8 groups Finland Population density map (Wikipedia). Population: 5,489,097 Area: 338,424 km2 Density: 18/km2 League system (Wikipedia) Level 1: 12 Level 2: 10 Level 3: 4 divisions of 10 teams each Level 4: 9 divisions of 10 to 12 teams each Level 5: 14 divisions of 9 to 12 teams each Level 6: 22 divisions of 7 to 19 teams each Level 7: 27 divisions of 5 to 16 teams each Denmark Population: 5,699,220 Area: 42,915.7 km2 Density: 132.8/km2 League system (Wikipedia) Level 1: 12 Level 2: 12 Level 3: 2 divisions: 16 / 16 Level 4: 3 divisions: 14 / 14 / 14 Level 5: 5 regional divisions - these can be even 7 levels deep In all these countries, there's a split after the second level. In Slovakia the split occurs after the first level.
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