I’m probably way off the mark but there’s only 2 extra places available which are currently going to Germany and Italy. England are third in the table but with Man U and Newcastle out of Europe altogether they obviously can’t contribute anymore. True, they’ve got a few teams that could go deep in the Europa and Conference but their points are diluted in comparison to what’s on offer in the CL.
Spain are in fourth but all four of their teams have qualified from their CL groups so potential for big gains.
Edit - In summary, I’m waffling shite. Better explanation in the link below:
https://www.espn.co.uk/football/story/_/id/39054486/the-race-five-places-next-seasons-champions-league