The possession data that I have collected comes from the BBC results ‘match stats’. I don’t know how they work it out or how accurate it is (not very is my opinion). There were lots of games where the possession was 51% vs. 49%. I don’t think that 2% difference has any impact on the final outcome of a match.
Anyway, based on the previous three charts and league averages, when out performing the opposition in:
- shots on target you have ~60% chance of winning
- total shots you have ~50% chance of winning
- possession you have ~44% chance of winning