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renton last won the day on September 19 2019

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About renton

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  1. Falkirk and Clackmannanshire's rapid growth trends didn't start until a week or two after Stirling and the other Uni Cities that had students back mid September, probably because it took that long for cases in student populations to spread into the general populace and then out over the adjacent regions. So they look to have slowed the rate of increase right down or even flattened, but haven't started decreasing quite yet, albeit those trends are on low case loads. Stirling is on its way down looking at the PHS data, I guess it could end up in a lower tier, assuming Claccs and Falkirk start to tail off as well.
  2. I think lumping Edinburgh and East Lothian with the same tier as the west is completely unreasonable and unjustified, to comment on what any other government would've done would be complete speculation but to keep voting for a party that has made this many incompetent decisions time after time just isn't progressive at all. There has been a massive failure by the Scottish Government to manage the expectations and communication over this. Based on the indicators and signals in the papers released previously there is no way in hell Edinburgh should be in the same tier as Glasgow. Edinburgh peaked on October 6th and has been falling ever since. However, It does make sense to be more cautious with the level of interconnection and reliance on each others services that you get across the central belt. For Edinburgh that principally means being next door to West Lothian which, Linlithgow aside is currently a plague hole. Had they weighted the signals and markers against that explicitly they could have mapped the regions more precisely to the tiers they intended to put them in. Yet they didn't and have ended up making people angry and confused. The liklihood is that East Lothian moves into tier 2, on Nov 10th and Edinburgh should too, assuming the rate continues to drop as it has. I'm not sure though that it makes a huge difference overall as you need to get to tier 1 just to see some semblance of being able to go places and do stuff anyway.
  3. Some awesome mangling of stats in there as well.
  4. I wouldnt mind so much but they created a scoring system that didn't take into account all the things they actually did, so now it looks utterly random.
  5. Yup paired with John Herron and with Scott Robertson at Centre back....
  6. The interesting bit there for me is where they discuss the less than random nature of interactions and therefore infections, which seems entirely reasonable to me, which places herd immunity threshold far lower. Something that the independent SAGE group paper also said.
  7. That's an interesting figure, where is it from?
  8. I love the way the corporate sponsorship looks like it was inserted into the original quote. There is a market there: "At the going down of the sun, and in the morning, we shall remember OUR TWO FOR ONE MIG MAC MEAL AT ALL PARTICIPATING RESTAURANTS"
  9. Yeah, even then though the bit in bold underneath suggests it still isn't statistically significant, and you can see why: A hospital discharge with a positive test has an associated mean hazard ratio of 1.45 and 3.74 at it's high 95% confidence interval (a wide window due to lack of data) whereas simply being in a care home, where the size was 20-29 residents had a mean adjusted hazard ratio of 3.53, and by the time you get to the bigger homes, that increases to 17.3. In other words, simply being in a care home full stop carries a far larger risk by itself than the effect of having a positive test hospital discharge in there, and that the larger the home, the greater the risk. It's not saying that the positive test wasn't the index case behind any individual outbreak, simply that its impossible to discern against the overall footfall, visits and movement in and out of homes, which is the marker from the care home size. If nothing else, it makes the case that any future guidance around the care sector should probably point towards sealing off homes as much as possible, with limited to no outside, untested contact for the duration of an outbreak.
  10. Only looking at the twitter updates but yeah, she did say that:
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