paolo2143

Funny how Tories have been telling us that Boris Johnson, Margaret Thatcher & Theresa May all had a mandate to push through their policies when by using your same method of (including Non voters) this is what they achieved 1979: Thatcher 33.3% 1983: Thatcher 31.17% (got a landslide off this) 1987: Thatcher 31.78% (another Tory landslide which led to her imposing poll tax on Scotland as guinea pig trial) 2015: David Cameron 24% forced through Brexit referendum (even with the UKIP party they had 32.82%) 2017: Theresa May 29.18%9even after bribing DUP for a £Billion) only just over 30%. UK press/Tories said mandate for Tory Brexit 2019: BoJo 29.36% and even with Brexit party added 30.7% (Unionists/Tories said he had mandate for oven ready Brexit deal) The fact remains that Scotland just had a democratic election where the Greens/SNP stood on Pro Indy platform the other 3 main UK unionist parties stood firmly against it and guess what we returned an even bigger Pro Indy Parliament than ever before. Pro Indy majority now 15. That is based on a much fairer voting system. If we had first past post the post system as in Westminster the Pro Indy majority would have been 51 and that is on only 73 seats. That would equate to a 250 plus majority in Westminster.

If they hold Edinburgh Pentlands the SNP will almost certainly have 62 constituency seats even without winning Aberdeen West. I just hope that if as expected Tories hold Aberdeen West that the SNP can nick 3 rather than 2 seats on list. Highly unlikely but let's hope for a miracle

On looking at 3 list votes from Highlands i have seen the SNP appear to be on roughly 41%. I suppose it depends on breakdown for other parties as well

Don't know if this has much relevance but certainly in constituency vote in Highlands & islands the SNP are literally on 47.95% of total votes cast. They would need to keep about 87% of those votes on List to have chance of getting around 43%

Hi can someone explain how in 2011 and 2016 the SNP got same 6 out of 8 constituencies in Highlands & Islands and yet in 2011 they got 3 list MSP's and 2016 only 1. The only difference i can see is that in 2016 they got 39.7% of vote but in 2011 they got 47.5%. Does theoretically that not mean if they got say 42.5% on list that they could sneak 2 list MSP's

I think Edinburgh Pentlands is probably the only one that is in real danger of going to Tories. Although wee Patrick Harvie might sneak Glasgow Kelvin and put a real damper on things lol As far as Aberdeen West goes i am expecting nothing less than a Tory majority of 3,500 plus thanks to Lib Dem's.

Well just as i was saying a big ask they have held Perth & Kinross South. Let's hope thy hold Edinburgh Pentlands as well.

It is going to be a huge ask for SNP to hold Edinburgh Pentlands & Perthshire & Kinross South. If they did then it is almost certain they would have held onto every constituency they won in 2016 which would be amazing achievement. I cannot see a snowballs chance in hell that they have won Aberdeen West though as even without Lib Dem swing to Tories it would have been a huge ask. So even if they were somehow to end up on 62 constituency seats unless they have polled 45% plus down South of Scotland cannot see them getting 3 list seats. Probably 1 in Highlands & 1 in South of Scotland

To be honest think the best we can hope for today in terms of SNP is that they hold Edinburgh Pentlands & Perthsire & Kinross South( given tactical voting that is a big ask). If the SNP could hold all their constituency seats along with those 3 gains that is a pretty amazing result. I cannot see any chance of them gaining Aberdeen West as it is clear the Lib Dems & Labour will scupper that. Let's hope the Greens win at least 8 MSP's

I don't think Alex Salmond who is currently more unpopular in Scotland than Boris Johnson was right guy to front party. What many of us did say was that in most regions SNP voters should have backed the Greens on List. If even half the SNP voters had done this the Greens would have bee on 20% or more and won around 20 seats on list.

Wouldn't there be a chance of SNP picking up a list seat in Mid Scotland & Fife if they lost Perth & Kinross South. Last time they held 8 of 9 constituency seats but this time they might only hold 7 if they lose Perth & Kinross South.

If and it is a big if, the SNP were to hold Edinburgh Pentlands and Perth & Kinross South and win Aberdeen West then we they could still sneak 65 seats. I still think they will pick up at least 3 seats on list 91 in Highlands and 2 in South of Scotland). The trouble is with the tactical Unionist voting i suspect that will be too much. A few weeks ago i predicted on the gambling & prediction thread that the final outcome would be SNP 64, Greens 7, ALBA 1, Labour 24 , Tories 28 , LD's 5 and that the SNP would get around 47.8% of constituency vote and around 38.9 % on List. I think that is going to be very close to final outcome although ALBA will not get a single seat by looks of things. Let's be honest back in March when the FM 's position looked precarious we would have taken a result that returned 70 plus Pro Indy MSP's and it is a fantastic result which means that at some point in next couple of years we can turn pressure up for Indy 2. When i say turn pressure up i mean it and i think Indy voters must be prepared to become much more pro active even if it means marching in the hundreds of thousands in London and keeping up pressure constantly.

I think it goes yellow. If it does i will be over the moon but i am steeling myself for news that that the Tories might just cling on

Ayr appears to be really close

Not sure but absolutely delighted they didn't

Now that may be a game changer as East Lothian looked as though Labour would hold with tactical voting. If the SNP can also gain Ayr, Edinburgh Central & Aberdeen West then it might be they could afford to lose Caithness & Perthsire South and still get 65 MSP's.

I think there is a chance that Caithness & Sutherland could be at risk to Lib Dem's and Perthshire South is another one that is on the line

Amazing to think that up until 2016 SNP used to destroy the Tories in Banff & Buchan. In 2005,2010 and 2015 G.E's they slaughtered them but from 2017 onwards been heading towards the Tories.

It does look as though the teuchters are the biggest danger to SNP majority. I am worried about a couple of those Aberdeen seats that SNP are holding from 2016.

Looks to me as though the Conservative voters were happy to give a tactical vote to Labour where they thought they could stop SNP, but it has not been reciprocated. That would be bad news for SNP in East Lothian & Dumbarton but possibly good in Edinburgh Central & Ayr

It looks as though the Labour/Lib Dems vote dropped about 4.5% between them and that has all gone to the Tories so definitely signs of Unionist tactical voting. Let's hope it is not across the board as we really need SNP to hold all their constituencies and pick up around 3.

It might not bode well for SNP in their target seat of Aberdeenshire West

I see the the totally non pro Unionist James Matthews is repoting that Tory sources are saying the SNP have had a really good day on constituency vote. Mind you as we all know you cannot trust a word the Tories say.

Nick Eardley reporting that East Lothian seems to be literally down to the wire between SNP/Labour.

lol