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Everything posted by harry94

  1. At least he was justified a job in some way working with NI, Rangers and St Mirren relatively recently whilst Mackay come in off the back of coaching St Johnstone's 20s and then that spell part-time managing Stirling. Nicholl may have been competent and playing a part but there's only so much that could do if the manager is so much out of his depth. Inclined to think he was good at his job for what it's worth but that's a guess, we had some horror shows last season but we never had a 5 game run as bad as this. The O'Boyle and Strachan stuff was pretty disingenuous from McPake and the club, they knew what they were doing and were careful in the language they used knowing that it would create a misleading narrative.
  2. In all honesty, I never really saw the complaints made about his work rate etc and poor games. Below average finisher but brilliant hold up player and very smart in how he played the channels etc. Only really remember one poor game when he come back from injury under McCann in a home game V County and he wasn't fit. Just think his back issue had become too much, he'd suffered serious issues before arriving. Take him out the 16/17 team and I think we're fairly easily relegated. The ability to hold a ball up with little in midfield and playing alone just took so much pressure off. Don't think the 7-0 game is near as bad if he's on the pitch.
  3. Re the mentions of Strachan, I think this needs to be taken in context of his arrival at the club. The club knew the optics of appointing another novice and made attempts to visualise the 'management team' at all costs, even before Strachan had a formal position, it wasn't even clear if McPake was manager or co-manager with Nicholl at the time of his arrival when you read the actual statement. McPake's first interview was focused on emphasising that he had the approval of the 'auld heids' and 'advice'. It was the spin we were going for and drafted to alleviate fans concerns. Having a technical director is very common for full time clubs and more likely the case than not. In our case, Strachan is on no contract and has dived into the academy stuff and there's never really been a suggestion from a first team player or management that he's really involved on that side. I'm sure he's well trusted by Nelms and may well be the key person for major decisions but I don't think there's anything to suggest especially rare influence. Think we're full of shit and try to imply Strachan does a lot more than he does. In all honesty, I would actually say we're probably giving way too much freedom to our manager and should have a full time technical director with one of their briefs being assisting on first team recruitment, as is the case in most of the top flight.
  4. Was assuming there is some sort of Manky Frankie mentalist who would enjoy hacking it to bits.
  5. So thoughts on this one all.... I own a 3 cylinder 1l corsa that's around 6 years old, I think around 35k miles. Always done me fine, minor issues every year with servicing an it's went on it's way. The most severe issue I can find in its history was when it was a couple of years old when the ignition coil pack went and caused a loss of power, the previous owner got that sorted the same day. So at the weekend, I noticed a loss of power, not too dissimilar to that set of symptoms so I tried to book it into a garage ASAP. I went somewhere new because they had availability to address the issue soon and I'd heard they were decent. On the morning I went to drive it down, I couldn't get it started or jumped and had to get it towed half a mile from the RAC. The moment I spoke to the guy at the garage and explained what had happened and going through what the RAC guy had shown me on his diagnostic and his speculation re the ignition coil pack, he was heading me down the road of it being something they wouldn't be able to deal with - "No error codes is strange and usually mean it's a serious issue that would have to go back to the dealer" -. After a couple of days, has told me they have nothing and an engine compression test has told them two cylinders have no internal pressure and it's past anything they can do. I don't really have any reason to doubt them and there's nothing against these guys to suggest they are inept but part of this just doesn't feel right, I know improbable events do happen but it just feels all wrong to me that I'd get that talk very early and the really early warning re error codes just comes across as total bullshit to me, it may have been expectations control but I would have thought that an actual mechanic wouldn't have been too reliant on sensors. So I'm down £50 on that diagnostic and potentially facing the cost of a new car. What would be the best economical decision to make? Ask my more favoured garage for a second opinion and pay for their time or brave a Vauxhall dealer or just make the decision now to completely write this off and try and salvage sell on value?
  6. We get it in an update almost every election evening in some form with this sort of thing happening. I think there is truth in it, electoral commission have guidance for returning officers and election agents here (wrong election but think the material is the same), guidance is that a first preference doesn't necessarily need to be indicated through a cross in the box and as long as it's 'clear' and the ballot is otherwise fine with the right watermarks etc, it can't be rejected. Once the returning officer makes the call, that's it official unless anyone wants to take it to court.
  7. He did an interview and said he had the odd senior moment but was fine and gets regular medicals etc which include cognitive ability.
  8. Has the next euro draw been confirmed to be determined from nations league seeding already?
  9. Re the rule changes, they may well change future seeding to be based off the placements, it has been rumoured for a while. In that case, we'd really be looking to consistently finish in the top 20 placements so it would be a case of either competing in the top division or winning the second tier group. I think it's really important we take this competition seriously because of that and the potential to get our coefficient moving in the right direction. We've had many poor years but the seeding does make the cycle much much harder to break out of whilst others ride off of short periods of success for years.
  10. But we'd also have likely secured play off spots for the World Cup and Euros, even if we were hammered consistently.
  11. It's a bit of a guess I suppose but contact tracing isn't a stab in the dark completely. Of course it's possible but it's definitely relevant to the assessment if we're not seeing these things flagged up in tracing and the less we see over time, the more confidence we have to say that it is a very unlikely transmission channel in the environment we have. Unless the methodology v tracing in the first place is poor for whatever reason.
  12. So in the paraphrasing included in that article, it's cited that transmission was seen to roughly stay within age demographics. I can't get access to the full paper but my reading of that is that children are being included in contact tracing to a higher level in India but no info on what the dynamics are in terms of household interaction and this contradicts some other data. There's quite a few different studies from different parts of the world re spreads in controlled educational settings. I can't attest to the quality of these publications but there was a particularly good piece and write up which reviewed a lot of this data published in the American Academy of Pediatrics journal which is high impact and reputable. https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/146/2/e2020004879
  13. I'm not intending to present an argument that there's no children to adult transmission, I was trying to articulate that the transmission between age ranges is very low relative to adult-adult. In a school setting in particular, we've not seen staff contract from children in Scotland. If you go right back to the Imperial modelling at the start of this crisis, we had a predictor for where the peaks in health care capacity would come and the impact that schools and universities would have on that. The peak timings was quite close for the first peak with little movement re school and university opening. The underlying calculation was based on transmission estimates for demographics and expected % of hospitalisation for different age ranges. The result was that just a small easing of mixing of adult population households again would be the biggest driver in getting to that peak point rather than a much larger mixing of younger demographics. We've not really seen anything to dispel that as of yet.
  14. And have we gone back to the nonsense in February of Italian kids hugging their grannies spreading the virus? The link is still to be fully established but we're seeing far lower levels of transmission between kids and adults across the board, perhaps there is some data I'm not aware of but there's not much controversy in this claim. Could you point me to any info of staff being infected by their students in Scotland? Key worker support would be beneficial but wouldn't be a completely perfect solution. Regardless, there are obviously embedded costs I'm sure you can see re removing a large no of kids from daily education.
  15. Well kind of. Cases of kids actually getting ill enough to require a visit to the hospital is pretty rare and then much rarer to have a serious complication or die, these cases will likely be kids requiring full time care regardless. We're talking a couple of magnitudes less likely than the adult population. In terms of how transmissible it is from this population to adults, it's been very rare. Almost unheard of for student-staff and as far as I'm aware, there's not been any staff cases that have come from children in Scotland. The underlying growth isn't due to the schools being open and the cost of closing them would incur embedded costs on all fronts, partially with the health service in taking staff out the front line. The headline figures don't tell us a huge deal on where the infection is actually growing and causing risk.
  16. And how are infections in schools impacting on health care utilisation?
  17. The whole thing about this different Swedish approach is being taken massively out of context Sweden have a constitutional issue where it is very difficult for the govt to claim sweeping powers like you see in other western countries. This meant that there wasn't a mandated closure of the economy but the general effect was that non essential stuff closed, people started commuting to work and enacted social distancing following public campaigns. Google showed that transit data and traveling post lockdown slowed in a virtually identical way to their neighbours. Call it restrictions, call it advice, it doesn't really matter. By large, they were living under similarish conditions to the rest of Europe.
  18. Cases per 100k is a difficult method to compare against regionally, helpful but I don't really think it tells us much of a story at the level and with the amount of data we're looking at and all the caveats involved, a high not could be indicative of a well tracked and understood cluster to low risk demographics whilst something uglier is lurking elsewhere. You've highlighted the drop in South Lanarkshire but their positivity rate was 15% in the last drop which was the highest in Scotland and their 7 day rolling no is just under 10%, that could suggest much higher transmissibility and under reporting of cases. I tend to sense it from the 7 day rolling figure tbh. Nationally, we're a bit down on what the hospital bed and icu projections were at the start of lockdown. The margin to total capacity in places is still too close to comfort and has obviously been a problem in some regions but there's a bit of cause for optimism that transmission has generally been stable since the start of October.
  19. I think the position is a bit different tbh, you have these career benchwarmer 'keepers who are pretty much trained to come into high pressure situations with 2 or 3 seasons of limited action. It will certainly lead to a decline but I don't think it's that drastic, as long as they've been injury free and the athleticism is still up there, they should be OK. If he's coming in as just an average upper Championship goalkeeper, that may make a substantial impact on how our season shapes up. It's the difference between us being 4 points better off so far and much more competitive V Hearts given how our current options have fared thus far.
  20. Fontaine was announced as having his contract terminated two days after the deadline. Unless they processed the paperwork earlier or there's a workaround where we can treat him like a loan player until Jan, he wouldn't be eligible to sign.
  21. I thought Fontaine looked good in the last game he played against us at Dens for County but then again David N'Gog run the show that day.
  22. Georgia has always been a state with a huge no of disenfranchised voters and a particularly bad whiff of corruption, even relative to the standard US nonsense. Stacey Abrams who narrowly lost the election for governor in 2018 has put a huge amount of effort into developing infrastructure for the Democrats and getting voters registered. Her and the financial support she got from Bloomberg to do all this was decisive. People have been talking about Texas flipping for decades, if you go back nearly 30 years in the 1992 election, the Democrat vote share is pretty much the same in 2016 and 3% up in this election (with historically high turnout) with plenty of ups and downs in the middle. On the other side, people used to say the 'blue wall' was trending to be solid blue for the mid west and there's been fairly little change for decades. I think the Democrats do go into it as favourites but I think there's still plenty of fertile ground to give any Republican candidate a shot at winning. If turnout just drops slightly, the map flips to be disproportionately in favour of the Republicans. If the effect of that was just a 3.5% swing in the midwest which we've seen many times before, that's the 270 needed before even thinking about reflipping Georgia and Arizona or Nevada. The electoral college is still a very powerful weapon and I think this election shows that more than ever.
  23. Voters aren't rational. The RNC had the idea of a Jeb, Rubio or Cruz type candidate in 2016 and were taken by surprise. Trump is going down fighting and a large no of voters are pretty dedicated to his cause, I'm convinced a large no will believe regardless that Trump is the legitimate winner of this election. There's a fair chance that the MAGA stuff will still be fairly mainstream by the next election.
  24. I think Don Jr could get his fathers blessing. If you look at the whole MAGA universe, he's particularly connected to a lot of the base and seems to know very well what buttons to push. If Trump himself can't come, he's usually the surrogate they go after. Pre Trump's run in 2016, Don Jr was the only one who was really invested in going into politics.
  25. I still think Biden is the favourite. A lot has been made of the south but NC and Georgia were always the very upper end of the predictions on what he could take and Florida was tricky ground in the mid terms.
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