Diamonds are Forever

I think that's part of it. But I also don't think they were as good as results appeared early on. In the opening game of the season they were 2 goals down with 7 minutes to go. Twice against QP (who have generally been poor) they've scored twice in the last few minutes to grab wins from defeats. There was the ICT turnaround too and a few other late goals to grab points like Ayr and Arbroath, when by all accounts they weren't very good. I know a goal is a goal regardless of what time it's scored and it shows good character etc etc, but the reality is it would not have taken a huge change in events for Raith to have been sitting quite a lot of points worse off before their recent poor run. Numerous late turnarounds of that nature weren't going to last forever and in fairness anytime I looked on here a lot more Raith fans were saying that. The best stat to show that is that Raith have won 13 games, every one of them by a 1 goal margin. That doesn't suggest to me they were playing great and then collapsed, it suggests that they were doing enough thanks to individual brilliance and that now that's dried up. My opinion of Raith is probably a bit skewed because against us so far they've been poor. I feel like in lots of areas of the pitch they are an average Championship side, but in Easton and Vaughan have a couple of players who can win matches on their own so when they are on form they'll get results. But as you say teams are obviously now finding ways to keep those players quiet which is affecting results. I've probably said a few times on here that Murray's biggest weakness was tactics, it's generally Plan A, or Plan B which is chuck every attacker on the pitch and see what happens.

In fairness you've made that sound worse than it is. For example in 2018 Falkirk finished 8th on 47 points, but they were 17 points ahead of 9th. The actual 8th place total is irrelevant, what's relevant is the minimum points total that was required to finish 8th. Which was 32, 36, 39, 31 and 39. So 35 on average. That said, I don't disagree with your estimate of 40 points being the safety line, if not higher. You can make a case for virtually every side from 4th to 9th having a decent end to the season, whether that's through current form like Morton or Airdrie, new managers/signings like ICT, Ayr and even QP, and then players returning from injury like Dunfermline. If Arbroath tail off that will also put the total up as teams will be getting 4 or 6 'easy' points. To pluck a number out the air I'd go 42 points will be needed.

Who was at fault for the defensive line is a separate issue I'd argue. If Watson was as far behind as the linesman's (who should be in line with the deepest defender) positioning suggests then it's Watson at fault for that part. But regardless McCabe clearly didn't realise how deep Watson was, he just saw Lawless ahead of Hancock and assumed offside. You can't just stand with your arm up when you can't see across the whole line. And even if you can you should still be chasing back given the standard of officials.

In the Arbroath game we scored a perfectly good goal at 0-0 which was disallowed which would have totally changed the game, that doesn't excuse losing 4 goals afterwards but it was still unlucky and given how we perform when we score first I think we'd have got something from it. It's still another month until an away league game (depending on rearranged games) so hopefully we have more players back then too. We do seem a bit more solid and streetwise at the moment so hopefully that changes our fortunes a bit away from home.

McCabe has generally been great at centre-back but every now and then you see that isn't his natural position. Standing with his hand up for offside and not bothering to run back because he's so confident it's offside, when he has no idea that Watson is behind him playing everyone onside, is schoolboy stuff. Even if you're certain it's offside you have to go back with the man, he would have been in a position to win the rebound if he'd tracked back. On the game it's probably a decent point. Partick will finish 2nd at worst I think so it's an encouraging performance to go toe to toe against them. As I said in the other thread, it's clear that at home we'll give everyone a game, it's how many points we can start taking away from home which will decide how high up the league we finish.

Been a very enjoyable few weeks playing some good sides at home and getting good results against all of them. It's clear that at home we are a match for anyone. Looking ahead, the next challenge for this team is to improve our away form. We are 2nd in the league on home form, but 10th on away form. We only have 6 home games left compared to 9 away and our next league game is also a home game to Ayr - so 9 of our last 14 games are away from home. Therefore it's going to be a long slog to May if we don't improve on our away form, which so far has been dreadful. I'm confident that we'll continue to win or draw our home games which alone should be enough to avoid 9th or 10th. But if we want to look any higher we'll need to start beating teams around us away from home.

Not that it affects your point really, but Transfers Scotland's 'source' for that will have been skimming every club thread on here and seeing fans post about him being a potential signing. I wouldn't pay much attention to that.

Realistically neither of McCabe and Fordyce would keep playing if they moved to a Premiership club, so an upward move out the league means retirement. As you say I can't see them doing that yet, therefore a move to another Championship club would be the only option for them if they wanted to keep playing whilst managing. I can't see Goodwin, Doolan or Murray being sacked anytime soon and moving to anyone else would be idiotic at this point. I think the best case scenario for both parties is that we consolidate in the league this year, and then manage to push on next year and challenge for play-offs (I know we are currently 4th but we aren't that many points off the bottom and I think everyone's priority is to stay in the league). I think 3 years of steady progression with limited resources would see him get some decent job offers in the Premiership or down south and he'd move on. By that time he'd be almost 33 and nearing retirement anyway. That's assuming that this season and next keeps going well which you never know, although ironically the best chance of him staying for a while is probably if results take a turn for the worse.

I get what you're saying but this is the same St Johnstone who appointed Steven MacLean who had precisely zero management experience at first team level. Same with Robson at Aberdeen, with Naismith at Hearts, Hammell at Motherwell, and that's just the last 2 years. Numerous more guys who have been given jobs with no criteria other than 'played for the club' and some vague 'highly thought of' nonsense due to taking a youth team. Or being the beneficiary of a new manager bounce when standing in for a few games. If all of the above can get those jobs it's bizarre that someone who has actually got a CV (albeit quite short) with some achievements on it is seen as a risk. That said, I don't disagree with you that that is how clubs would view it, but it just seems weird to me.

Definitely, the £24k isn't actually a net gain if the game is moved to a Monday night. I think we'd be financially better off without the TV money if we played at 3pm on a Saturday, plus you'd have a better atmosphere. Like you I'd much rather have a normal kick-off time.

I know BBC are doing their best to create a Darvel storyline from somewhere but showing that game would be a step too far. At home then definitely it would be worth showing - I'd fancy Bonnyrigg to beat Barcelona on that field nevermind Aberdeen, however on something resembling an even playing surface like Pittodrie they'll be comfortably beaten in the dullest game imaginable. As a neutral it's the last game I'd watch out of those ties, I'd have Cove or Brora away to Killie ahead of it.

If I had to guess we'll have between 2-3k and will have the main stand. Harder to say with Hearts and depends a lot on whether we are the Friday night game but Hearts will bring 4-5k I think if it's the Saturday or Sunday.

Hearts will bring way more than that. Maybe less if it's the Friday night game, or just a TV game in general, but they'll need the 3 stands.

Great draw I think. Outside chance of an upset, will be near enough a sell-out and potentially a TV game too.

The turnover this season must be huge compared with last season. Our average attendances (including away fans) is 50% higher than last season and you'd hope that will increase more as the season reaches it's climax and teams have things to play for. We were also knocked out in every cup at the first stage last season. Got to last 16 of League Cup this year, at worst semi-final of Challenge Cup and at worst 5th round of Scottish Cup. Not just the prize money but also more games with decent crowds like yesterday. You can add whatever we got for Devenny into that mix too. The 2 home play-off games must have been a great boost to the club last year as it was a combined 7,000 fans over the 2 games which is all money to the club, that probably made up for all the cup exits. Of course we could still have play-offs this year too. But even if you ignore the cup performances and just look at our gates being 50% higher (with more expensive tickets too) you wonder whether our wage bill has increased by a similar amount. Seems unlikely as we've kept basically the same squad if you switch Smith's wage for Todorov. They will all have got salary and bonus increases obviously but I don't imagine by that extent, certainly not most of them. The conclusion is stating the obvious but it's so important we stay up this year as from the outside things must be looking much better financially and that may allow us to build more next season. It's good that the extra income isn't from some fluke cup draw at Celtic Park either (although that would be welcome) it's all been driven by performances on the park.

I know it's hard to always know in advance what games will be shocks or exciting games, but as you say the Airdrie, Partick and Raith games were all games which everyone knew would be close games and likely 'shocks'. They would all have been good games to watch as extended highlights. The way they always seem to prioritise 'all Premiership ties' as if this is an exciting prospect is really frustrating. We see these literally every other week of the season, I can't think of a less interesting game to watch as a neutral than Killie v Dundee. That's nothing against them, same applies for showing an all Championship or League 1 tie, the whole interest of a cup is seeing games you wouldn't normally see, seeing how different levels compare and seeing storylines created. I can see Killie v Dundee 4 times a season already. I'm not sure whether they genuinely think it's more interesting to watch, or whether it's just the easier and cheap option for everyone - camera infrastructure already there, commentators/pundits already know both teams etc. On top of that, showing extended highlights of the games which have already been live on BBC is unnecessary, in today's world everyone who wanted to watch that has either been at the game or recorded it and watched it back. They aren't waiting until 10.30 to watch it.

Can't remember the Dunfermline game either. But I remember the Spartans game, the pitch was completely waterlogged for the whole second half, not sure how the match wasn't abandoned, it was farcical.

I think Telfer has been the unsung hero this season, he brings real class and composure to the team and works incredibly hard. When he arrived last season I felt a bit sorry for him because it was clear some fans had already pigeon-holed him as a certain type of player because of the comments of Falkirk fans, and probably because he was holding out for a better deal elsewhere. He was good in spells last year but injury meant he never got up to full speed, we're seeing this season what he can really bring to the team. Great to see him doing well after what I assume was a tough few years at Falkirk.

The worst thing McStravick could do would be to go to a bigger club and get stuck in the youth/reserve setup like Devenny. He's got talent but he really needs to keep playing 1st team football. I think he's still to really find his role in the team and impact games as much as he should given his ability - none of which is a criticism, just part of the learning process at that age. He's not even a nailed on starter for us so moving up a level or 2 would probably mean youth football for a couple of years which would do nothing for him.

The only way it possibly could be is if the manager manages to attract some quality loanees using his contacts, players that otherwise might have been loaned somewhere else. But even then you'd imagine the player would have a say and want to go to the best club possible. But you are spot on, the idea that professional footballers are going to choose to play at a lower level than they are capable of, and by extension get paid less, because they either know the manager or because they admired him as a player is nonsense.

As Mr November says we've given a good account of ourselves at home to a few Premiership sides in the last couple of years, the caveat being that the Motherwell, St Mirren and Dundee wins were all in the League Cup group stages (and all in the first 2 group games I think) and I always feel like the Premiership teams aren't really up to speed by that point and shocks are more likely, like Ayr, Stenny and Stirling beating St Johnstone this season I guess. So I don't read too much into those. That said, the draw and ET defeat with Ross County in the last 16 is probably a better indication of our level when we play well at home, so I'd expect a similar kind of result here. I think we'll lose by the odd goal, but also wouldn't be surprised if we pulled a result out the bag.

I don't think we have any right to feel messed around to be honest. That's the issue with using the loan players, when it works well you get access to a quality of player that you normally might not, but there are downsides like we are finding out. Hibs have to do what is best for them and until they get another right back in they'd be stupid to let him go back out on loan. If we don't want messed around then we are entitled to cancel the loan and move on to someone else, it's our choice to wait and see. To me it shouldn't make any difference regarding us trying to get players in. Ballantyne will still be out for a few weeks and will need a few weeks to get up to speed. If we end up in a situation where we sign a defender, Megwa comes back and then Ballantyne gets fit then that's a great problem to have and we have enough flexibility with Watson and Hancock that we could still get our best players playing and switch from back 4 to back 3 if needed. If we're delaying signing someone to wait for him then that's daft, but I don't believe we are. As I've said before though I don't expect us to sign anyone of note. I didn't to begin with but with ICT, QP and Ayr all desperate that will drive the price of any potential signing up and we'll be out-bid. It would have to be a loan signing or someone pretty left-field.

Don't claim to know how things operate behind the scenes at Ayr but from the outside I don't really get the impression McCall would be that keen on working under the structure at Ayr. Mathie obviously very involved with everything, McGeady's role seems quite ambigious and I think has potential to cause tension with a certain type of character, and a 'recruitment team' who seem to excel in signing nobodies from the National league. It's been said numerous times but McCall's biggest strength is recruitment, mainly from his own network and getting in guys he has worked with. How well would he take to the club trying to get him to sign some left-back from Dorking Wanderers when he just wants to be given a budget and left alone to do his thing? He's as far from a 'Head Coach' as currently exists in Scotland. More broadly, I think that applies to most of the experienced managers, I think they'd be asking questions over how recruitment works. If I had to bet I'd guess it will be a relatively young (or at least inexperienced) manager who is happy to go along with the current set-up just so they get an opportunity. Cue Ayr appointing Yogi or McCall...

Apart from the obvious risk that you continue a run of bad results, it's a big gamble not sacking Bullen now because with every passing week and every bad result the Ayr job becomes less attractive if you do eventually sack him in 3 or 4 weeks. Getting the Ayr job now would still be a relatively attractive job for most out of work managers - plenty games to sort things out, only 2 or 3 wins away from shooting up a few places and a transfer window to sort things out. However, joining in mid-February a few points away from 8th with no transfer window would scare off most self-respecting managers and you'd be left the usual failures or someone like McGeady stepping in. Queens Park timed it right with their appointment, I think any side leaving it this late to change managers faces running into the above issues. Seems like Ayr are at the point where they'll need to commit to backing him for the season regardless, or make a change now.

I actually think that's the worst non-award of a penalty I can remember seeing. I don't know how it could be more blatant. Most of the time complaints from fans on Saturday nights about terrible decisions turn out to be wrong (see Edinburgh City last night) so I take the comments with a pinch of salt, but that yesterday is an absolute shocker. Obviously he may have missed, and I don't know what other wrong decisions there were in the game, but given the time in the match Ayr seem to have won a watch with that decision.