I’ve been reading this thread for a while and just want to make a quick observation around cases rates and the published hospitalisation figures. First I want to say that I am not in favour of any more restrictions but I have noticed a few comments which don’t make mathematical sense.
The case numbers we see on a daily basis are the rate of cases per day. The hospital figures are the absolute number of people in hospital.
Based on this, it is not possible to say with certainty that “the case numbers have peaked therefore the hospital numbers will peak x days later”. You can say that the rate of hospitalisations will peak but not the absolute number of people in hospital.
To calculate when the absolute number of people in hospital will peak, you need to know the discharge rate. This isn’t (to my knowledge) reported in the daily figures.
The hospital numbers will peak when the rate of people entering hospital is below the rate of people leaving the hospital. You could still in theory have peaked in case numbers and have rising hospital figures for quite some time (if the case number do not fall quickly)
I know this seems obvious to most people on this thread but I have seen multiple comments which don’t grasp this concept.