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Everything posted by Todd_is_God

  1. Mad how Brexit has impacted the Netherlands so much
  2. Whilst it's unlikely you'll get caught, it's difficult to argue the small risk is really worth it anyway. Assuming you are already on the price cap, 1MWh of gas is going to be around £30 more expensive next month than this month, and 240kWh of electricity £14.40 more. The £400 rebate will take care of most, if not all, of the increases over the next few months, and the unit price isn't going to change again anytime soon. All you are really doing if you fire in inflated readings is paying for a bit of your winter usage in advance.
  3. I see Tory backbenchers are threatening to block the removal of the 45pc tax bracket. Winning the leadership contest only to immediately face a rebellion doesn't exactly lay the foundations for a successful PM
  4. But they did, though. They chose to sanction one side whilst supplying weapons to the other. They then actively discouraged peace talks. That is choosing aggression. Whether or not you agree with the motivations for doing so doesn't change that.
  5. Stating that the window of opportunity for calming aggression in a war is immediately before / after it starts is an objective statement. It's not taking either side. I don't pretend to know enough about the political intricacies of the countries of the formier Soviet Union to take a side, which is why I've not done so.
  6. Care to explain how the window of opportunity for, and I quote, "calming this down" was not immediately before / after it started but rather 7 months down the line?
  7. Like I said earlier the window of opportunity for a deal is long gone. This now ends only with Ukraine pushing Russian forces out of Ukraine altogether, or Russia somehow regaining momentum and taking all of Ukraine. You have to assume The West will have anticipated how a nuclear superpower might react when faced with an embarassing defeat in a war involving it's own borders when they made the decision to engage in economic warfare with it and came to the conclusion they'd quietly slink away. I guess at some point we will find out if they were right.
  8. Well the total / partial loss of Ukrainian sovereignty is a far preferable outcome to the world being engulfed in a nuclear war, yes, but that wasn't where I was going with that. You made the point that you hoped the situation could be calmed down soon. All I said was that the window of opportunity for that to happen is long gone. Looking at the current state of play, how do you see this situation being calmed down?
  9. The window of opportunity for calming it down was back in February / March. The West chose aggression instead.
  10. So the Russian end game is to use nuclear weapons on its neighbour to invite a nuclear strike on itself and then not retaliate? Ludicrous. I also don't believe that Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine would lead to NATO using nuclear weapons in response either.
  11. There's a difference between "becoming dependent" and simply buying what is cheaply available as you diversify your portfolio, so to speak. Anyone who believes that, following the war, European countries would simply choose to pay more for gas from elsewhere than recover their losses by buying discounted Russian gas as they build nuclear power plants, increase renewables capacity etc is being a bit naïve. Gazprom is a majority state owned company - if Russia did blow up the pipelines, then it can be argued Force Majeur clauses do not apply.
  12. What propaganda use directed at Europe is there from Russia destroying a pipeline they already turned off? If Russia wanted to use the pipeline as propaganda they could test the will of Europe by offering to supply them gas through it at a massive discount. Blowing it up removes any leverage they have. The United States stand, by far, the most to gain from the permanent disablement of NS & NS2 in both the short and long term and, frankly. They also publicly stated that they would ensure that NS2 was never turned on. Contrast this to Russia who just a few weeks back offered to turn the taps back on at any time in return for the lifting of sanctions. Given the wealth transfer that has already happened without anyone making so much as a peep of noise about it, they are also arrogant enough to do something like this without fear of backlash. Afterall, who would believe it was them, and what are they going to do about it anyway?
  13. It couldn't be more obvious the attacks on NS were carried out by the US in an effort to control its so-called allies in case they decided to tell them that, actually, it turns out they aren't willing to freeze their own citizens, or transfer any more wealth to the US in the form of buying LNG at any named price for the sake of their beef with Russia. Europe is little more than collateral damage in this war now, and Ukraine itself barely an afterthought. The US is not the ally to the UK and EU they are painted to be.
  14. Boris Johnson isn't thick either - the bumbling buffoon in public was an act
  15. A reminder that Tory MPs consistently voted for Rishi Sunak during the leadership campaign, and placed Liz Truss 3rd in the first three ballots. Unlike when Boris Johnson became leader in 2019, LT does not enjoy majority support within the House of Commons, and any MPs who actually want a chance of keeping their seat in the next election will almost certainly be happy to see the back of her / him.
  16. I made that point, and I respectfully disagree that it's a stretch. We would have been able to ride out this energy crisis much better had we not saddled ourselves with massive amounts of borrowing to pay for the Covid response, as we would likely have gotten away with that level of borrowing had we not subsequently involved ourselves in the US's reincarnation of the Cold War. The pound (and Euro) were already tumbling against the dollar as the Federal Reserve had been cranking up interest rates to strengthen the dollar at the same time as Europe was being forced, thanks to US led sanction packages, to turn to the US for energy, as well as purchasing, in dollars, what gas was available in Europe. The latest shock is, as you correctly identify, the result of piss poor policy in the last week or so, but it's "it's nothing to do with what I supported" nonsense to claim that the other factors are what led to being in a position that such piss poor policy became even an option on the table.
  17. With Russia looking like they are on the verge of defeat and Europe in the midst of an energy crisis, the country with the most to lose in the re-opening of NS1 and opening of NS2 at the end of the war is the USA. Halting the gravy train of EU money flowing to US energy companies is something they will be keen to avoid. They'd be high on my list of culprits tbh. Post war Russia will need any and all revenue streams they can find, so it makes little sense for them to blow something up that they control the tap to anyway. It couldn't be any cleared that, far from being allies, Europe is being used a pawn; viewed as both expendable and acceptable colateral damage in the US's proxy war vs Russia.
  18. San Marino, incidentally, finished 2nd last - ahead of Liechtenstein
  19. I was wrong about 3rd seed, we are actually 4th. Meaning atm we're off to fucking Israel
  20. We'd be 3rd seeds I think behind Israel and Serbia (assuming results v the bottom side are discounted), meaning we'd not be able to play Israel until the final, the host of which would be drawn from a hat. Currently we'd play Serbia away.
  21. B So Israel (as they almost certainly won't qualify automatically) Bosnia and Serbia atm.
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