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gaz5

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Everything posted by gaz5

  1. Where we're going Marty, we don't need luck. Care to comment on Netflix tanking though? Being that its not a Crypto acting like a Crypto? Or just going to gloss over that point now you realise you just didn't know where the ticker was?
  2. Are you drunk? I literally circled the label in Green highlighter so you couldn't miss it. Its Netflix, which is down 76% since November. I think you've made it abundantly clear that you don't know the difference between gambling and trading, regardless of what you think. And clearly you're now making it clear you've never even looked at a chart in your life to be making your bold claims or you'd know where the ticker was.
  3. I mean, clearly that was an analogy in one of the latter posts to make my point about the style of trader I am. I'm not a Degen 100x futures gambler. I'm also pretty sure in the exact post you have partially quoted I actually explain my Day Trade outlook. You guys all seem to be completely hung up on the "Crypto" element to this though. I'm not a Crypto maxi. As I keep saying, I trade across multiple markets, one of which happens to be Crypto. The issue (my issue) is the bold claim that TA and Trading is somehow bad (or pointless or random lines on a chart if you look back what I reply to) in Crypto, but it's fine in all other markets because they're "good markets", not a "bad market" like Crypto. I get it, people dont like Crypto. There's plenty about Crypto I dont like too. But as it seems like I am one of the very few people in this thread who actively trades on multiple markets none of you are going to convince me that conventional market logic, be that trading or macro investing, doesn't apply. Because I know, from actual practice, that it does. I'm happy you have an ethical approach to investing and that works for you, it's all about finding your own personal sweet spot. But personally I couldn't care less what I buy and sell as long as over time its making me money. My only goal here is to retire as early as humanly possible. That's why I trade Crypto, thats why I'm waiting on a trade on Chevron in traditionals at the moment and why I have a trade waiting to catch betting against the £ v the $ when it gets back to my level. I'm market neutral and asset neutral. And I've never claimed you need to be a software engineer to learn how to trade or even that it helps. I've said that *my* style of trading, for pretty obvious reasons, is based on the sort of logic it turns out we'd both be using on a daily basis. You cant tell me as a fellow engineer that you don't get why I would choose to trade the way I do? I do it because it's comfortable for me with 20+ years looking at and writing non trading algorithms. You have a general "feel" for how they would work. Its something I *know*. Thats not for everyone. Anyone who did want to trade would need to find their own style, but with work and time that could be anything.
  4. Yes, LUNA is a clusterf*ck (and Do Kwon deserved no better for being an arsehole), but we can all pick and choose our examples. As I've said before, I totally understand that people don't like/understand Crypto and fully accept that, but lets not pretend these sorts of things don't happen to blue chip stocks as well as some sort of "told you so". It does your argument (as someone who agrees there's a ton of bullshit in Crypto) no favours at all.
  5. I have been completely honest about it, you just need to learn to read. I am a day trader. I am also a swing trader and a long term investor. I'm not recommending anyone else be a trader, have said that over and over again. But that doesn't also mean I don't have an understanding of how to best manage DCA macro investing. And certainly doesn't mean I can't say "buy the dip" is bullshit, invented by institutions to provide themselves with exit liquidity.
  6. I think this is, again, just a lack of understanding of the market and what I mean when I say algorithmic. I'm a Software Engineer by trade, so I know how I would write applications/code and what would be required for a trading bot (in terms of actual, codeable parameters that are non discretionary, repeatable and consistent). In order for trading bots to function (more than 90% of the volume on every market) they need to identify and trade nased on these mathematically calculated levels, because for a piece of code, a chart doesn't exist, never mind the random trend lines and discretionary patterns that lots of retail would have you believe work on them (but don't). Algos (Trading bots) need to operate from non discretionary, calculable and consistent levels. So that gives me enough to look for their patterns, once I figure out how they are trading. And because they are bots, consistent application of a codebase, they do the same things over and over and over again. Ive also spent a lot of time understanding how institutions trade against retail using these bots and the problems they have in doing so. The main one being they have too much capital to take large positions all at once so they try to hide their entries and exits in slow, sideways ranges using sometimes thousands of smaller orders. But the one thing they can't hide when they are building these positions in these ranges is the by price level volume that's required to do it. The bots are good at building these positions slowly, the same way over and over again, but they can't hide their volume footprint. So when I see these clear (to me) bot patterns and they occur in areas of heavy by price level volume I can calculate, the same way they do, the Point of Control of that range. That being the volume nodes that extend beyond 1 standard deviation of the overall range. Then all I need to do is wait to see what direction they then break the price in. Spotting the accumulation is one thing, but I don't know if they are accumulating longs or shorts till they move the price in their desired direction outside of the range. This has its own fingerprint that happens over and over and over again. Once it does move, I know where they built their large position and what direction that position was in. So all I have to do then is wait for price coming back to that area, because (again, these are algos, code based trading bots) they always do the same thing: Defend the position once so they can clear it on the next move in that direction. So I have orders waiting on the PoC in the direction of the initial breaker, targeting the next high volume node (where they started exiting the position last time) with a really tight Stop Loss, in order to keep the R:R high. Backtesting showed that getting stopped out but keeping target at 1:3.2 was most profitable in my moddeler. Basically I win less but over time return more. I average at 1:2 because I take partial profits at set levels to lock in the trail the stops. So, as I say, you can look at it like horse racing if you want to. But for me, given I don't trade anything discretionary at all, there's no "form guide" or favourite or horse that could break a leg, I don't see the comparison. It's more like betting on Rangers or Celtic to win the league, with 5 games left and one of them 6 points ahead. My style is based entirely around knowing how code works, how to spot the repeating patterns of that code and how to tie them to institutional activity. Then applying testing and maths to that to manage the risk. The risk management may be similar to sports betting, I have no idea, I've never been in a bookies in my life. I've spent 40 hours a week for over a year developing and testing this and I'm now trading it in 3 different markets, over multiple timeframes (including my ISA). So as confusing as it might be for you guys to understand why I have confidence in what I do, it's because I put the time in. I've not just decided "that's mumbo jumbo" based on an article I once read saying it's like horoscopes.
  7. What Trading on markets? I'm not talking about Crypto here, I'm talking about trading in general. I use the same strategies on ForEx and Equities. I get (and accept) you don't like crypto, but take that out of the equation. But you (and the others in this thread) who poopoo all things trading, on any market, is just bizarre to me, given none of you clearly do it.
  8. Its not faith mate, it's science. Observe, Research, Test, Refine, Report. In all seriousness, why are you guys all so keen, as people with clearly no interest or desire to understand the practice (which is fine), to convince someone who is and who uses it every day to successfully supplement income, that it doesn't work? Are you really all that afraid to admit that it is possible, just possible, that on this subject I may know a little more? ETA: I don't use lines on graphs to predict future events, its (a lot) more complex than that the levels I trade. More than happy to explain if you are genuinely interested. The levels I use are algorithmic (i.e. calculable by machines, who make up 90% of trading volume), not discretionary.
  9. Almost as spectacularly uninformed as the comment that it was exactly like horse racing, given both sides now appear to know nothing about the other side of their "trade"?
  10. You are correct, I know nothing about horse racing. I'm more than happy to admit that, unlike some others may be about other things
  11. If it makes you feel better to think of it that way, you go right on ahead. I mean, its not, but if it makes you happy, then go for it. I have no objections.
  12. As I've said previously, you not having an understanding of how it works doesn't mean it doesn't work. Its nothing even close to being like horse racing. To be quite frank, your view on something, based purely on not understanding it, is akin to the trepanning rituals of the dark ages when they didn't understand mental illness. Can you not even concede that maybe you just haven't spent the time to figure it all out and that, actually, others might have? Anyway, the transition from one state to another doesn't need to be reliably forecast, it just needs to be accurate enough for your R:R profile for the strategy to make money. As I said twice now, I am right 56% ish of the time. That means I'm wrong 44% ish of the time. But (and this is the thing that people who don't understand TA struggle with) I DONT NEED it to be right every time. I don't even need it to be right half of the time. I only need to know that when it is, it will move within a certain range in the direction in which I need it to. Its just maths. 3% losses, 6% wins, work out yourself the return on that over 100 trades at a 56% win rate. Work it out for a 40% win rate (its still profitable).
  13. You're not listening, so let me say this, again, very, very simply: I. Am. Not. Advising. You. Or. Anyone. Else. To. Trade. Or. To. Try. To. Time. The. Market. As. A. Trader Trading and DCA are two entirely different strategies (as I've said multiple times). What I am trying to convey to you is that there's an efficient way to do DCA long term positions to increase return without having to be a "Trader" and there's an inefficient way to do it (DCA every dip) This requires next to no TA ability and next to no time spent looking at charts In terms of your comment re: more likely to post successes. I've already said I'm only right in my trading around 56% of the time. Because I understand this is a game of probabilities and not certainties. My job is to make it OK to be wrong. TA is a tiny fraction of what is required for that, the majority of it is boring old maths. My single most important document is my Risk Management plan, which protects my capital. That's my fundamental goal. I'm not a "Trader", I'm a "Risk Manager". The reason 56% sees me profitable over time is that my losses are fixed to a maximum of 3% of my account in any position and my wins are a minimum of 6% of my account in any position. So my 56% wins bring in twice as much (minimum) as my 44% losses. That's the maths, backtested over years of data and with rules to follow to make it consistent, not arbitrary. But I digress and will repeat again: I AM NOT TALKING ABOUT TRADING OR SUGGESTING ANYONE SHOULD DO THAT. It suits me because I enjoy it. I like stats and patterns and maths because I'm a boring old cnut and I enjoy spending about 40 (or more) hours a week on it (across all markets BTW, not just Crypto). So, onto the second part of your post and the question: "I guess what I'm struggling with, what made November 2021 a trend reversal rather than a dip in an uptrend?" The attached image is a 5 Day chart, so Macro level (not trading). Yellow line is the major trend, based on Dow Theory (Higher High, Higher Low series is an uptrend, Lower Low, Lower High series is a downtrend). Reversals are signalled by ABC movements where, in an uptrend, a new low is set below the previous low (A), a new high is set below the previous high (B) and the latest "lower Low" (A) is broken by price closure (C). This is a sell signal as it more often than not confirms trend reversal. Its a game of probabilities. In November, as with May, that's exactly the pattern we saw. Higher High, Lower Low, Lower High, Lower Low breaker. That's why November wasn't a "Buy the Dip" opportunity. November was a "Sell and wait" Signal. And I repeat, this is NOT trading. Trading is done on far smaller timescales wither far more entries and exits, not to mention I flipped short (as I only trade in the direction of the trend) for my swing positions which HODLERS don't do, they "Invest" one way. This doesn't require any in depth or repeated technical analysis. This is a 5D chart. You can look once a week, or once a month, or whatever. Is it a higher high and a higher low? Yup, Uptrend, DCA in on the dip. Has the previous low been broken? If so dont buy the dip but hold for now and wait: patience Has there been a lower high and the new low been closed below? If so, dont buy the dip, sell the position and wait. *This is a BTC chart, because we're talking BTC, but this is EXACTLY the same on any instrument. Equities, ForEx, Crypto, Commodities. Whatever. Its just market structure. Here's the thing: "Buy the Dip", "Diamond Hands", "HODL (Hold on for dear life)" - Who do you think invented those narratives? See in those two structure breaks in May and November? Who do you think were selling their positions there and who do you think they were selling them to? Think about it for a second. Because your first instinct is correct. If you are a large player in a market you need people to sell to when you want to close your positions, otherwise you cant get out when you see the trend change coming. Convincing retail to "Buy the dip and HODL" is like the greatest trick the devil ever played in this zero sums game.
  14. Hehe, well in that case, yes, it's not QNT specific. I closed my short overnight as BTC hit my target. I'm looking for a bounce now and I have an area of interest around 38k where I plan to enter the next short. Initial target for that around here, where I'll take a chunk out and trail the rest. My current target for BTC is in the 19-22k range, but I don't mind if it doesn't get there as it doesn't affect my entries if it doesn't. So, long and short, a bit of a retrace seems more likely in the short term, but I'm all out and back in cash waiting for the next opportunity, be that up or down.
  15. In what context? Doesn't look any different to the rest of the market (or traditionals) at the minute?
  16. Well, that's bollocks for starters. There clearly defined definitions of ranging, uptrend and downtrend. Dow Theory (my preferred interpretation) is one of those for clearly defined trend recognition and one that, if applied correctly, would have seen far better return than "buy the dip". It's pretty much market analysis 101. To claim there's no such thing as an uptrend or a downtrend because you personally don't know the difference is like claiming the earth is flat because that's what it looks like out your window. [emoji1787] FWIW, everything I do is rules based. Conditions that repeat in the market and on specific assets that have been backtested over years of price history. This is kinda my wheelhouse.
  17. You need to read up mate. I covered this. It's not about "knowing" or "having a crystal ball" and if that's what you're looking for you'll fail from the start. It's about looking at what is more likely. The higher probability. In a downtrend, the higher probability is down, not up. Is it certain? No, of course not. I'm not the one trying to sell certainty. I'm not the one claiming "this is a great time to buy bitcoin". I'm the one saying that there's no basis for *that* certainty because the probability is it keeps going down in a downtrend. I said this at 31k. It's now 27k. Let me put it to you this way: If you are a BTC maxi and you think it's going to $100k plus, why do you need to buy every dip on the way down from 69k? Why not wait for the first higher high/higher low and buy there, in what at least looks like a reversal, instead of blindly throwing money at every "dip"? The maths on that is pretty straightforward. You don't get the bottom, but your overall cost basis is much, much better. You pay a risk premium for not buying absolute lows, but that is more than covered in the saving you get from not buying, in this case now, 58k, 52k, 48k, 43k, 38k, 33k, 31k, 27k. etc. etc. It's just maths. Nothing more. Yes, I'm a TA guy, but that's only a tiny part of it. I'm only right (currently) about 56% of the time. But the maths means I only need to be right 33% to be profitable. That maths doesn't work if you are blindly buying dips for no reason at all.
  18. I see you're still going with this narrative and making up whatever you want about it to try and make it sound more difficult than it is. You don't have to be a professional anything or a trader to understand you don't buy dips in a downtrend. That's basic common sense. People who listened to your advice are currently down 10% in 2 days and counting. Meanwhile my cash that you couldn't understand sitting in is still worth the same as it was 2 days ago. So yes, you've definitely missed something. Even if you want to HODL you still need to know how to DCA properly and protect your capital adequately. "In the history of Crypto hodlers beat traders". Nope, more conjecture I'm afraid. Some hodlers will beat some traders. Some traders will beat some hodlers. But we're not talking about trading, were talking about having a basic understanding of markets.
  19. I'm with you on this. NFT has some potentially practical applications that could be useful in the long run. But the current "use case" and people actually willing to pay these crazy figures (and gas fees) is wild to me. It has been a useful lesson in markets and investing for my wee one (using VeVe), so that's been handy at least.
  20. In fairness, it's a market like every other. Moves the same way for the same reasons. I get that people don't like/understand crypto as a technology, but that doesn't detract from how all markets move. I'm with you on the buy the dip bullshit, as I explained in depth above.
  21. I went in at 1.10 with $100 on a 10x, well below my max risk. It was a confluence of multiple fib levels on a volume shelf. But was always a huge gamble given conditions. One of those where you accept your might lose the capital quickly, but if it does turn given the selloff even a small bounce is going to be epic. Wouldn't have done it if hadn't had a good day yesterday, doesn't impact my week too much. That was perps BTW, I wouldn't be holding spot LUNA at the moment.
  22. Yep, I lost. [emoji1787] This one was an absolute gamble. But I knew that going in and the risk was small/defined.
  23. I don't try to call bottoms, it's a fruitless endeavour. [emoji846] I more look for institutional activity and the direction they are then pushing it, then look to enter on confirmed retests of that area once they confirm they are going to protect their positions. I never go in without a stop on anything (given the market volatility) so I need levels to take risk off. My positions are all sized based on that risk. For me that makes trying to pick market bottoms pointless (for my style anyway) as there's nowhere to take my risk basis off. At the moment, the areas of interest I'm looking at are: - 21.5 - 23.8 (PoC 23.1) - 17.5 - 19.4 (PoC 19.1) - 15.2 - 16.3 (PoC 15.4) - 12.8 - 13.8 (PoC 13.7) - 8.2 - 11.4 (PoC 9.1)
  24. Haha. I have it going into the $1's so I'm waiting a bit longer.. I do have a concern that to get out I need buyers and they are in short supply at the moment, but a couple hundred bucks max risk for a potential 1500% (x Lev) reward is the type of R:R I can get on board with. [emoji1787]
  25. No, because the first big dip in November broke the trend. That was your sell signal, not a buy signal. Well, actually, the lower high after the lower low breaker was the confirmed sell signal. But feel free to tell me again I was wrong to sell there, at 52k, preserving 80% ish of my profit, that I should have put more money into the market to buy the dip with new capital and ride the now 5 month loss, essentially paying for someone else's exit. Might even have been you I sold to at 52k, who knows......
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