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Reluctant Hero

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About Reluctant Hero

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    Ross County

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  1. 20 of us in so far First game tonight - easy win for the Texans 🤪
  2. Anybody else looking to show off their NFL knowledge? You have one week to sign up for one of the most unique season's in history
  3. If anyone is interested, I have set up the Pie & Bovril Pick'em League again. The password is scotland (all lower case) You have to create an entry (spread entry) then re-join the league. http://fantasy.espn.com/nfl-pigskin-pickem/2020/en/?adddata=pigskinpickem2020_nfl_web_fantasynav
  4. Turnout is 70.4% in Gordon. This is up on 2017. Which is similar to other Tory seats that have turned SNP, so it could be another gain
  5. Think the overall UK turnout will be around 67%. The early results are low, bit are in line with previous elections, so turnout will be between the 2015 and 2017 figure which I would say is pretty good for a December election. If it matters, then people will turnout.
  6. That is 2015 level turnout. Wonder if it will be the same across Scotland
  7. About 4 hours until we start to get an insight into how this election might go. I couldn’t really care less who wins the race to be the first seat to declare. It is going to be between Newcastle Upon Tyne Central and Houghton & Sunderland South. The winners of the seat themselves will probably not be all that exciting either as Labour should be able to hold on to both of these pretty easily. The real interest in these early results will be in analyzing the share of vote for each party. This will especially be the case in Houghton & Sunderland South. They voted 62% to leave in the Brexit referendum in 2016. In the 2015 GE, UKIP got over 21% of the vote here, so how will the Brexit Party get on? And if they do well, who will they get their vote from? Labour or Tory? This will give an indication of how it might play out across the rest of England and maybe Wales. Then there are other interesting things such as the turnout. Typically, Houghton & Sunderland South polls at 8-10% less than the UK turnout. Newcastle Central also polls below the UK average, although the difference has been narrowing over the last few elections – from a 10% difference in 2010 to a 2% difference in 2017. So, although the first couple of results may not appear exciting on the face of it, there is plenty to look into!
  8. Just bumping this in case anyone is looking for something like it!
  9. These are the expected times Rutherglen & Hamilton West expected around 1.00AM
  10. Don't know if anyone has posted this yet, but the PA have a list of expected declaration times. Declaration Times Rutherglen and Hamilton West is expected to be the first Scottish seat to declare. Obviously it will be exciting to see who wins this as it is a super marginal seat. But it will also be interesting to see how the Tory vote does here. They have no chance of winning the seat, but they increased their vote by 12% between 2015 and 2017. This increase in fortunes was reflected across Scotland. So if the Tories maintain their share of the vote here, this could indicate that they will keep the majority of their seats in Scotland. A reduction in share of the vote however, could mean they are on course to get wiped out up here. Here's hoping!
  11. If anyone is looking for a spreadsheet for Election Night (and before), then look no further. You’ll need Excel 2016 to use the file and it is 7MB, so may take some time to download. Download Election Spreadsheet The first tab has various information about every UK seat for the last 3 elections, including count finishing times, trends, postal votes etc. You choose the seat you want to view from the menu down the left-hand side. It has a forecast which you can change by changing the figures of the Opinion Polls tab. I even had a box for interesting facts/info about the seat, but I quickly got bored of doing that lol, so only some seats have that. The second tab has a prediction of the 2019 election. This is based on a very basic calculation of using the percentage of the last election and applying the swing based on the latest opinion polls for each country. The opinion polls can be changed via the Opinion Polls tab. (Tonight, YouGov are producing a forecast for every single seat, so will be interesting to see if this is close lol) The third tab shows the seats each party holds and orders them based on majority (smallest to largest). The fourth tab shows the 2019 status once you start entering the results as they come in. You can enter the results and electorates on the Data Entry tab, which lists all the candidates standing in each seat. If you update anything in the spreadsheet, you need to go to the Refresh Page tab and refresh the table for all the graphs/tables in the spreadsheet to update. I think all the data is correct, but if you are using the file for any other purpose than just a bit of fun, then make sure you double check the data with verified sources. All the best
  12. List of all Scottish seats in order of most marginal. Click on the seat name for more information about that seat to appear, including the time the count concluded at in 2017, which will give a rough indication of declaration time this time around. The visualisation is better if you click the full screen button, which can be found down at the bottom right. Link to info Think all the data is correct, but if you are using it for anything, make sure you double check the data with other sources.
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