LongTimeLurker

...which kind of suggests that they ken fine well that this is all about being seen to do something while at the same time not doing something that could rebound on them in popularity terms like closing down schools and workplaces. Key for them probably is waiting for new case numbers to peak as the epidemic wave runs out of steam and then claiming that was because of the measures they imposed.

Manaus in Brazil has probably been reported on and studied more. Some locations like that have seemed to only hit herd immunity after significantly higher percentages of the population have been infected than appeared to be the case with Stockholm and parts of New York City.

...so they can see how the public reacts and adjust accordingly.

The whole question of cross-immunity from exposure to other coronaviruses is being actively explored in the scientific literature: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163445320306836 and is not some wacky internet theory.

Think what he would probably have been getting at is that the whole question of immunity is more complex than whether antibodies are present. Going back as far as the cruise ship incidents early in the year where only a limited portion of people on board got infected, things have not unfolded the way that would have been expected if 100% of the population was equally susceptible. Still lots of research to be done to fully understand why.

...because that would call into question whether the first lockdown should have been as drastic as it was and whether letting the process of acquiring immunity unfold among the wider community (Sweden cough splutter) when people have stronger immune systems due to greater exposure to sunshine in the summer months might have been the way to go.

Think there are better days coming as long as nobody expects instant normality and if/when there is a vaccine that hugely alleviates symptoms politicians don't keep imposing lockdowns every time there is a surge in new cases and accept instead that at some point an epidemic ultimately has to be allowed to run its course up to herd immunity thresholds in a Swedish sort of way.

Apparently this one doesn't mutate that much, which should make life a lot easier than it is with influenza in terms of developing treatments.

Thing is though that you probably are not going to get 100% efficacy with a vaccine of this type, which is why a lot of medical professionals are trying to get people to temper their expectations a bit and not view it as a magic bullet. You only need >50% of cases being significantly alleviated to have a shot at approval from what I understand. Let's say deaths are only 25% of what they otherwise would have been after high risk groups have been vaccinated. Is that enough to end the hysteria in the tabloid media and end it from being viewed as a serious threat, if having everything fully normal again creates another surge of new cases like the one we are going through at the moment? Think the powers that be would still be keen on some social distancing to keep the R0 somewhat suppressed so the optics look good from that angle.

Think in layman's terms that this vaccine would train the body's immune system how to deal with a virus with COVID-19's general sort of shape by attaching a fragment of that structural type into another more or less harmless viral structure in the vaccine that the body builds up an immune response to. What's critical is the percentage of elderly people with comorbidities this helps keep alive, because it will need to be most people in that category to put a major dent into the number of deaths.

If it provides the UK elite with a face saving exit strategy from their cycle of imposing lockdown measures every time the new cases curve goes in the wrong direction, it will be far from pointless. Think it's obvious by now that they are never going to admit to the plebs that they got it wrong back in March when they were panicking over things like ventilator provision and shunting the elderly out of hospitals and back into care homes because they believed misleading computer models.

Pandemic just means an epidemic on a global scale, so COVID-19 definitely falls under that definition. Think the politicians in western countries were hoping it wasn't something that was really going to take off for them until the following winter's flu season. Turned out that the R0 number was too high and there were way too many difficult to screen mild and asymptomatic cases for that to be the case, and that it wasn't as dependent on ambient temperature being above freezing but below 20C as it initially appeared to be.

True, but that won't shut people up about Sweden, so isn't the preferred narrative for the UK's political elite right now, who very much need the plebs to keep believing that their lockdowns have made a crucial difference in the larger scheme of things for career longevity reasons.

They'll be hoping they don't come out of the hat and still get the 5k payment or whatever it is for missing out. Hopefully they do and face the logistical challenge of how to still field a team without professional contracts kicking in. Would be quite humorous to watch a Stirling Albion vs Selkirk Vics scenario unfold.

Lockdowns started out as being about flattening the curve so hospitals would not be overwhelmed. The mission creep that unfolded after opinion poll gazing politicians were handed the power to micromanage people's lives to that extent has led to this mess.