The Poker King

At least someone is researching figures instead of banding around phrases like 'football Armageddon' and 'financial meltdown' Makes a pleasant change.

Here you are; THE possible consequences for the Scottish Premier League's broadcasting arrangement should a Rangers newco be made to start life in the Irn-Bru Third Division were last week made public by Stenhousemuir. It made for dire reading. According to Stewart Regan, chief executive of the Scottish Football Assocation, and Neil Doncaster, his SPL counterpart, the existing deal, worth circa £15m per season, would disappear to be replaced with one worth just £3m. The fall off is staggering. While Rangers are a key player as far as the television companies are concerned, they are not the be all and end all of Scottish football. In the 2010/11 season the average viewing figure on Sky was 247,000 per game. Even if all broadcast matches including Rangers are discounted, there would still have been on average a viewership of 180,000 per game. Rangers contributed 27% of the viewing figures, so why should a subsequent TV agreeement without them decrease by 500%? It doesn't take a genius to work out that this is a terrible deal. The SPL is the 11th most-attended league in Europe, ahead of Switzerland, Austria and Norway, all of whom can command higher television revenue. Even without Rangers, the SPL would still have had higher attendances than the three aforementioned leagues. The Greek league, which has attendances half of our own, has a television deal worth three times as much, while the Norwegians pull in similar numbers. Are attendances the key indicator here? Can they translate into viewing figures when the Barclays Premier League is on our doorstep and on our screens? Let's look at some leagues in a similar situation, namely the Austrian, Swiss and Norwegian leagues. The former has a deal with Sky Austria worth £13.5m a season, an arrangement similar to our own. However, while the SPL goes out to 645,000 subscribers in Scotland alone, the Austrian league is broadcast to just 240,000 local subscribers, three times fewer. Like Scotland, Austria is in the shadow of its neighbour and Sky also has the rights to all games in Germany's Bundesliga. Over the border in Switzerland, they have just signed a deal worth £20m, with a further £4m coming from domestic channels. Swisscom, the cable company with the rights, has 608,000 subscribers and is the biggest cable operator in Switzerland, giving it similar reach to that of the SPL yet generating 33% more revenue. In Norway, they have an even better deal, with a contract signed with TV2 Norway worth a reported £44m a year revenue despite viewing figures which are lower than Sky's figures for the SPL. According to a report from TNS-Gallup, the most viewed domestic Norwegian match in 2011 was Lillestrom versus Brann, which attracted 196,000 viewers. As a comparison, a fixture between St Mirren and Hibernian attracted 392,000 viewers on February 20 last year, while the SPL's average viewership on Sky is just shy of 250,000 per match. Even if we discounted all matches with Rangers, the viewership would still be around 180,000 per match. So, Scotland gets less money than the Norweigans, the Swiss and the same as the Austrians, but on all counts boasts higher viewerships and match attendances. So why is the deal so poor in comparison? There is a suggestion that it is to do with the popularity of the English league, but Norway attracts Premier League viewerships five times those generated by their domestic matches; a similar ratio to Scotland, given that the average English game attracts 1m viewers. Likewise, Austrian and Swiss football is overshadowed by the Bundesliga, which attracts more viewers than domestic matches – yet they still have deals either similar to or better than the SPL. Another issue is the perceived lack of competition for SPL rights. Since the collapse of Setanta, Sky have had a monopoly and have, therefore, dictated the figures. Indeed, a Nordiccom report into the current Norwegian deal highlighted the situtation in the UK, saying "if former rivals decide to join forces instead of continuing to compete, this may have dramatic consequences for the competition, and hence also for prices. The fewer broadcasters that originally were present, the closer a reduction can move the market towards a monopsony [one single buyer]. This, in turn, will transfer market power from the sellers to the buyers". So the above lack of competition maybe explains the current deal being less than those of other European countries, but still cannot explain Doncaster's £3m figure. To put that prediction into perspective again, it would rank Scottish football on par with Hungary, who sell their rights domestically for £2.8m. That league gets 2900 fans per game on average. Is that all Sky are really offering for a league which would generate viewing figures of 180,000 a game more than Norway, even without Rangers? The Barclays Premier League generates average figures of around 1m for Sky, yet receives £1bn a year in revenue. Even with their monopoly, £3m is a derisory figure. But, assuming the figures are accurate, what alternatives do we have? There is ESPN, but they appear to be building their interests in alliance with Sky. There is BT vision, who just invested £750m to show 38 Barclays Premier League games a season. With their model, which allows users to watch via mobile devices and the internet as well as conventional TV, this may be the way forward. There is also the long-mooted SPL TV option, modelled on the successful Eredivisie TV platform in the Netherlands. At £6 per month, or £50 for the season, the platform allows you to watch all the Eredivisie matches live, wherever you are in the world. Just to put this in perspective, if a similar deal was set up in Scotland, 37,500 subscribers would be required worldwide to match Doncaster's figure of £3m. If the numbers without Rangers remained at 180,000 a match, just short of £15m would be generated for the Scottish game, which looks surprisingly similar to what Sky are currently paying. Is the current deal underpriced? Possibly, but with the lack of competition and the unwillingness of the SPL to take a step into the unknown, it is at least understandable. Could the proposed £3m figure by Doncaster be undervalued? Absolutely, and for that comment alone there should be a vote of no confidence heading in his direction. Steven Burns runs the A Saint In Asia blog. You can read him at saintinasia.wordpress.com

OMG, i'm into London

I would actually be more cautious and say until it doesn't feel tight anymore + 1 day

No, I didn't think much of them either. Apparently Blind Pilot were ok but I didn't see any of their set.

Was at the SECC last night for a quality gig by the Counting Crows.

Good news Gaz. If you are planning on staying over night (either the Saturday or the Sunday or both nights) then start looking for something now and if you find anything just book it!. Most, if not all, of the big hotels will be fully booked but if you go onto the North East England tourist site then you will get the numbers for plenty small B&B's. Good luck for the race when it comes, you'll love it!

Not had it but it sounds like it could be ITBS Runners World Article

Not doing Edinburgh this year. I ran it last year but with the missus having a new baby in September lat year it's curtailed the amount of time I can go running. It's a nice flat course for anyone hoping for a fast time, just hope there's no wind! Edit: I've just realised that your talking about the Great Edinburgh Run and not the Edinburgh Marathon. I have no idea whether or not the 10k course is flat.

You should be scaling down the amount of running you do in the last two weeks of a training program anyway. If you've been quite ill recently i'd just be making sure that I was 100% healthy for race day. Don't go out and try any seriously long runs at this stage. If you feel up to it then maybe 4 or 5 miles at race pace. 8:30 per mile will get you round in under 2 hours and it'll give you an idea of whether or not you'll be able to sustain that pace for 13.1 miles. I've just entered the ballot for London next year. 3rd time entering so here's hoping!!

19 Minutes is pretty fast for a 5K I know there are different types of Bleep test but if that's the one where each level (the 12 in your score) is ten repeats (the 8 in your score) then youve only covered 2560m. And you've probably walked the first couple of levels.

Was thinking about that as well. It's the week before the Edinburgh half and i've actually found a training program for a half marathon which has you running a 10k race the week before. Might wait and see how training goes over the next couple of weeks before deciding whether or not to enter.

Great North Run ballot entered and Edinburgh half-marathon entered. I decided I need to enter a few races to 'focus my training'! I'm finding it too easy just now to say "i'll not bother running today i'll do it tomorrow"

50 minutes for 7.9 miles is imho pretty decent. It works out at just under 40 minutes for a 10k. I think it's quite important though that your goals are specific to you. If you'd be happy with that then fine. I know some people who would be delighted with 50 minutes for a 5k but if that keeps them motivated then fine.

Mmmmm, You've got me considering it now! I'm going to do the Edinburgh half-marathon in April and maybe the Dundee half in June, Hadn't planned anything later than that though. I ran the Great North Run 2 years ago and loved it, great atmosphere right round the course.

Go to a running shop. Greaves Sports or Run-4-It in Glasgow are good ones. They will analyse your running style and advise on an appropriate pair of trainers. It sound as if you're suffering from shin splints which can be caused by runnning in trainers that are not giving you the correct support.

Have to agree with all on here, great television. Watched it on BBC the first time and wa given the box set as a best man's present, great stuff!

£2 on Hatton to win by KO, TKO or Disqualification @ 3/1 £1 on Hatton to win in round 9 @ 33/1 £1 on Hatton to win in round 10 @ 33/1 £1 on Hatton to win in round 11 @ 33/1

Run 4 It in either Glasgow or Edinburgh Greaves Sports in Glasgow Run and Become in Edinburgh The Great North Run would be a good half marathon to target!

Got my 'rejected' magazine today They're just scared i'd win it

Another way to look at is they are covering 100m in 18 seconds which sound pretty slow but then you consider in a marathon they will cover 100m 420 times!! I've not been out running as much as i'd like recently. I changed jobs in June and I need to find time to fit running into my schedule. I did run the Broadwood 5k last Thursday night and finished in 20:18. Slightly disappointed not to go under 20 (I did 19:51 last year) but it's probably not surprising given my lack of training recently.

Unfortunately I can't really afford to shed any weight, 6 foot and 10 stone soaking wet! I like the sound of that speedwork session. As part of my marathon training I was doing mile reps in about 6:21 but that was with a half mile recovery in between. I know what I need to do, it's just a case of getting out there and doing the hard work now! You must be quite chuffed with 16th place? Well done!!! Just checked the results, 217th place. If I'd run my pb time i'd have been 157th!

Just back from Bellahouston as well. The race didn't go as well as I had planned and I am pretty disappointed with 43:39 (watch time). That's over a minute slower than my 10K pb Since the Edinburgh marathon i've only been out running 4 times but three of those were in the week immediately afterwards. I now realise that I should have had more rest during that week. I also started a new job last week which meant that I didn't get out as much as I would have liked this last week. I'm probably going to look for a 10K later in the year and put together a serious training program for it. I need to do more threshold and tempo runs to up my pace. I know I can get under 40 minutes for 10K!!!

Following from the Captain's reply can I also recommend the following sites Born2Run click on the 'sports diary and online entry' for details of upcoming events and Run4It go to 'events' and then click on the 'events (sports) diary' I've found both these particulary useful when looking for races Watty, I've registered for info on the kilomathon and agree it does look like quite a good distance to train for. I hope there's more announced soon. I just googled 'kilomathon' and the only link that comes up is the one for the Edinburgh marathon homepage

If you're going to be doing a decent amount of running you should go to a specialist running shop and have your running style analysed. If you just pick up a pair from JJB or the like there's a good chance you'll end up giving yourself an injury. The trainers might be a bit more expensive than you could get them for in JJB (£10 or £20) but that's a lot cheaper than physio bills!