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Posts posted by ecto

  1. This poll appears to have Yes Scotland at the same as they were in the Record/Survation poll, 2 weeks ago, and a couple of points up on the last ICM poll, a shift yes, but not a significant shift as the paper claims, as for John Curtice, knows his stuff, but he does come down on the side of the nationalists

  2. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-26689016

    Dennis Canavan is the Chair of Yes Scotland; which I didn't realise before. He spoke quite well; keen to emphasise that Yes Scotland is not party political etc.

    He was till not that clear on currency etc lots of 'Scottish people will decide' and 'various options' stuff but for me this just highlights that the referendum really does not provide anyone with any kind of mandate to negotiate independence if the vote was for Yes.

    He can emphasise all he wants that Yes Scotland is not a political party, but it is, whether he likes it or not

  3. The polls have moved a couple of points for the Yes campaign, but not moved enough for them to feel a difference, so suddenly prompted by Daily Record/Sturvation poll, which polled 39% Yes, 48%, DKs 13%, when you take out the DKs, it becomes Yes 45%, No 55%, Yes Scotland and the SNP have taken the poll rating without the DKs and are running with it, hard

  4. There are still a lot of voters that are not really engaging with the campaign as yet.

    The referendum won't be lost or won in March. Many will make up their minds in the official campaign period.

    Yes it's nice to see your campaign in the lead or your campaign showing momentum, but it's only a snap shot of how things are at the moment.

    In my opinion it will be late August early September before we know who is likely to win this referendum.

    A wee bit rose-tinted, glass half-full kind of look at it

    I'd agree to an extent. But unless there is seismic shift in voting intentions then Yes still face an uphill battle.

    For once a common sense view of the subject

  5. It says you should not put too much emphasis on a single poll but focus on the trend instead.

    A best fit line approximation through the trend will tell you what's happening and will indicate error bars on your results.

    It's the only statistically relevant thing to do.

    The trend is clearly showing a narrowing of the gap.

    That isn't in doubt and frankly I think you'll struggle to find anyone with a brain who doesn't privately acknowledge that.

    The only important question about the polls is where they predict a crossover from majority No to majority Yes.

    Do they predict that to happen before September?

    I'm not sure if they are converging fast enough or not.

    My point is the fact at the current rate they are narrowing, but at the present rate they will not crossover, before the vote

  6. No, you tried to dismiss a swing as unrealistic, despite the fact that the two polls in question were from two different companies. They don't reflect a swing; the change of in house polling makes a swing. And it has been categorically towards Yes since the White Paper.

    It has moved 2% on panelbase towards Yes 38% to 40%, No losing the 2%, where as in Ipsos/MORI Yes vote has lost 2% going from 34% to 32%, No staying steady at 57%, YouGov showing Yes only up 3%, 32% to 35%, No only losing 1% now at 52%, so what does this say?

  7. No I think it shows what a lot of shite the polls actually are. Anyone that reads too much into them is being silly.

    Nice try at conflating to different methodologies to cover up BitterTogether's fail: 1/10

    Yes Scotland love polls, and they read loads into them, in fact like to quote them, when I mean quote them I mean, big up the good ones, an as for the methodology argument, you could say that about all polls that are done, but on this forum only poor polls for Yes Scotland are dismissed on these grounds, just my view

  8. 3 weeks ago the Yes vote polled at 32%, that was a Ipsos/ Mori poll, now a panelbase poll has them at 40%, in the last 18 months the polls have shown a small 4% improvement for Yes Scotland, very unlikely that there would be a 8% rise in 3 weeks, would suggest the truth lies somewhere in-between,

  9. So far as I can see, this is within the margin of error of previous Panelbase polls and most of the "momentum" in other pollsters, when taken over the long-term, show exactly the same trend. Very little change.

    Funny how, having gone out of fashion among Nat types when it became static, Panelbase, which has consistently placed Yes more favourably than any other pollster, has suddenly become the team to cheerlead again.

    It is a fact that the best poll ratings for Yes Scotland have come in polls conducted by panalbase

  10. No

    The one thing that makes me want to vote yes is the idea that a no vote is a vote to "rent" the union for another few years. If the result is something like 48-52 then salmons will probably have another go of it.

    It will also depend if he keeps a majority at Holyrood

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