ecto
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Posts posted by ecto
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Panalbase had a poll last August which gave Yes Scotland a single point lead, until recently the only poll that had Yes Scotland over 40%
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Are you for real?
It is only my view
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This poll appears to have Yes Scotland at the same as they were in the Record/Survation poll, 2 weeks ago, and a couple of points up on the last ICM poll, a shift yes, but not a significant shift as the paper claims, as for John Curtice, knows his stuff, but he does come down on the side of the nationalists
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-26689016
Dennis Canavan is the Chair of Yes Scotland; which I didn't realise before. He spoke quite well; keen to emphasise that Yes Scotland is not party political etc.
He was till not that clear on currency etc lots of 'Scottish people will decide' and 'various options' stuff but for me this just highlights that the referendum really does not provide anyone with any kind of mandate to negotiate independence if the vote was for Yes.
He can emphasise all he wants that Yes Scotland is not a political party, but it is, whether he likes it or not
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The polls have moved a couple of points for the Yes campaign, but not moved enough for them to feel a difference, so suddenly prompted by Daily Record/Sturvation poll, which polled 39% Yes, 48%, DKs 13%, when you take out the DKs, it becomes Yes 45%, No 55%, Yes Scotland and the SNP have taken the poll rating without the DKs and are running with it, hard
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Frankie Boyle should do one for YES
He is a p***k, always has been
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I early 2012 there was 2 polls ipsos/MORI had 39% for Yes, Panelbase 37% for yes, it is today at best 40%, but don't worry still 6 months to go
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There are still a lot of voters that are not really engaging with the campaign as yet.
The referendum won't be lost or won in March. Many will make up their minds in the official campaign period.
Yes it's nice to see your campaign in the lead or your campaign showing momentum, but it's only a snap shot of how things are at the moment.
In my opinion it will be late August early September before we know who is likely to win this referendum.
A wee bit rose-tinted, glass half-full kind of look at it
I'd agree to an extent. But unless there is seismic shift in voting intentions then Yes still face an uphill battle.
For once a common sense view of the subject
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Alex Salmond said on the Andrew Marr show that Yes was up at 45% now.
What poll was that?....
The Daily Record/Survation poll had Yes 39% No 48% DKs 13%, if you removed the DKs it showed Yes 45% No 55%
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It says you should not put too much emphasis on a single poll but focus on the trend instead.
A best fit line approximation through the trend will tell you what's happening and will indicate error bars on your results.
It's the only statistically relevant thing to do.
The trend is clearly showing a narrowing of the gap.
That isn't in doubt and frankly I think you'll struggle to find anyone with a brain who doesn't privately acknowledge that.
The only important question about the polls is where they predict a crossover from majority No to majority Yes.
Do they predict that to happen before September?
I'm not sure if they are converging fast enough or not.
My point is the fact at the current rate they are narrowing, but at the present rate they will not crossover, before the vote
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No, you tried to dismiss a swing as unrealistic, despite the fact that the two polls in question were from two different companies. They don't reflect a swing; the change of in house polling makes a swing. And it has been categorically towards Yes since the White Paper.
It has moved 2% on panelbase towards Yes 38% to 40%, No losing the 2%, where as in Ipsos/MORI Yes vote has lost 2% going from 34% to 32%, No staying steady at 57%, YouGov showing Yes only up 3%, 32% to 35%, No only losing 1% now at 52%, so what does this say?
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No I think it shows what a lot of shite the polls actually are. Anyone that reads too much into them is being silly.
Nice try at conflating to different methodologies to cover up BitterTogether's fail: 1/10
Yes Scotland love polls, and they read loads into them, in fact like to quote them, when I mean quote them I mean, big up the good ones, an as for the methodology argument, you could say that about all polls that are done, but on this forum only poor polls for Yes Scotland are dismissed on these grounds, just my view
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3 weeks ago the Yes vote polled at 32%, that was a Ipsos/ Mori poll, now a panelbase poll has them at 40%, in the last 18 months the polls have shown a small 4% improvement for Yes Scotland, very unlikely that there would be a 8% rise in 3 weeks, would suggest the truth lies somewhere in-between,
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Good, he's a useless, ignorant p***k.
a reasoned, considered view
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Never underestimate Galloway, don't think he would back down to anyone
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So far as I can see, this is within the margin of error of previous Panelbase polls and most of the "momentum" in other pollsters, when taken over the long-term, show exactly the same trend. Very little change.
Funny how, having gone out of fashion among Nat types when it became static, Panelbase, which has consistently placed Yes more favourably than any other pollster, has suddenly become the team to cheerlead again.
It is a fact that the best poll ratings for Yes Scotland have come in polls conducted by panalbase
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No
The one thing that makes me want to vote yes is the idea that a no vote is a vote to "rent" the union for another few years. If the result is something like 48-52 then salmons will probably have another go of it.
It will also depend if he keeps a majority at Holyrood
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George Galloway is worse than AIDS.
Just my opinion.
A bit strong, he talks highly of you
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The knowledge of sailing on this thread is incredible, girls not so much
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Like this from 2:10 in? embarrassing.
I raise you 1 Michael Howard, when the great man asked him the same question 27 times if my memory serves me right, as for above not his finest moment
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Yes the BBC had given him time off due to the abuse and threats, at no point was he suspended or under investigation
ok, I give up I was wrong
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He wasn't suspended.
Well he was off-air
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No they didn't. the BBC backed Spence
only after a investigation, which he was suspended while it was going on
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Balls. And it's tack not tact.
You are right its "tack", excuse my bad grammar, oh and it is not "balls", just look at how the SNP are using the polls, enough said
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Things that annoy or delight you on the telly right now
in TV and Film Forum
Posted
Scotland Tonight, that pair of presenters think they are the most important thing on it, they are terrible