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Paco

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Paco last won the day on March 9 2017

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  1. Clubs would struggle if distanced fans are allowed back. In Scotland at least, clubs have sold pretty normal levels of season tickets and not many will be able to take PATG on top of that number. By the time you take into account all the admin work, organisation and then additional matchday costs in terms of raw cash flow, you’d probably be struggling to bring in any extra income. If hospitality bars and catering could open, you might just about manage, but the knockout blow could be if the SPFL prevents selling a live stream in the UK since there’s fans in the stadium. Not all clubs are the same either, so you could have say Queen’s Park or Airdrie with capacities far too big for them happy to let anyone in, but Dumbarton or East Fife really struggling to accommodate even distanced ST holders. Common sense solution to me would be a ST only crowd regardless of capacity, live stream available for those who don’t. Not that any of this is happening this season.
  2. Actually, hold on. An employee working 33% of their normal hours must be paid 55% of their wage by employers, with the government contributing another 22% on top. So 77% of the wage for 33% of the work. Not bad for workers but what’s the incentive here for employers? If you run a pub, are you more likely to a) register for this and pay your workers more than they’re working, at a time your profits are down drastically or b) punt them and take on zero-hours staff? I’m not following the logic of this. We’ll see how successful it turns out to be.
  3. The new scheme is effectively aimed at hospitality, because they shut at 10pm many people will not be hitting their contracted hours. It’s good in general for that industry. However places not allowed to open - nightclubs, conference centres, beauty parlours, event spaces, spas et all - are being sacrificed. Hard not to feel for industries not allowed to open but being excluded from this new scheme.
  4. Apologies for the self-quote but I had a look back through old posts as I always felt there was an inevitability about the kind of restrictions introduced this week, as disheartening as they are. Pretty much waiting on an extended furlough to begin the stop-start of hospitality and it’ll be spot on. What I didn’t expect however was for it to begin in September. We’re now headed for a lockdown, I don’t think there’s much doubt about that. The English restrictions in particular are going to do absolutely nothing, they’ll be similar to Scotland/NI within a few weeks unless either the UK Government caves to pressure from Sturgeon and goes even further on a national basis, or the mothership in London sees accelerating virus levels, whatever comes first. My theory at the moment is that the UK Government know a lockdown of sorts is inevitable and have introduced half-arsed, pointless measures alongside their serious faces in order to pass the blame onto the public when it arrives. I think it’ll probably work too, possibly their first bit of ‘good politics’ through all of this. Although of course that doesn’t help reality. What will lockdown look like? I think we’ll know more after Sunak’s statement today. But I’m expecting Scotland at a minimum to try this ‘circuit break’ in October assuming Sunak’s statement gives the levers needed. Two or three weeks of virtual shutdown, it might not be entirely like the last one but expect it’ll be much the same. And if we go for short ones, it’ll almost definitely need done a few more times through winter. All in all, utterly depressing. But get used to it, because the government spent the summer fucking off on holiday for weeks at a time, introducing pointless unpoliced ‘quarantines’ on foreign travel and in England at least letting the tracking system fall apart. They have done essentially nothing to prevent the rise in the North-West of England - their ‘back to work’ message astonishingly applied also to areas under local lockdown so brought commuters from out of town into Birmingham, Manchester et all - and the time we had with relatively low virus levels was wasted. England got a relatively normal summer holiday, so now we pay the consequences. Happy days.
  5. Any anxiety on this is understandable but like a lot of things, this is a resource issue. If 50 school kids test positive on any given day, then immediately ~1500 school kids need tested as they’ve been in close proximity to a known positive. Plus there’s any additional parents/grandparents/childminders to throw on top. That’d be somewhere in the region of 20% of the testing capacity swallowed by 50 positives. Get a test if there’s symptoms. You could be a good P&B case study given the discussion of kids and whether they’re common carriers.
  6. It was sorted months ago, maybe into August in England but May/June in the rest of the UK. Positive test within 28 days of death = included in the ‘official’ number which is currently at 41,788. The data was backdated when the 28 day requirement came in.
  7. Yep. This was all abundantly clear in June and July when barely a soul in Scotland had the virus, but we all sat on our hands in case we missed a furlough cheque. Wonder how confident we’re all feeling about the magic wand in January that was meant to give us unrestricted crowds.
  8. Is there a chance the biggest driver of Covid from schools returning isn’t the kids entering the classroom but the behaviour it enables? Mummies gathering at the school gates. Impromptu coffee outings. Heading back to Susan’s for a blether. Allowing parents to go back into their workplace. Picking the kids up from a childminder/family/grandparents and mingling as you do so. Invites to kids parties at the weekend and mingling with other parents. Quite clearly shit started hitting the fan when schools went back. You can point to it on the chart. However the numbers for schoolkids, especially primary, are not rising at the rate of the general population. There has to be something in the ‘kids don’t carry it as much’ or one case in a class would at the bare minimum be sending down three or four every time, and that just doesn’t seem to happen. Equally Test & Protect would notice with ease if the parents of entire classes were picking up Covid transmitted via the asymptomatic kids. The Facebook Maws might just be the real enemy.
  9. It is absolutely insane that after a weekend of rampant speculation and worry about what’s going to happen, the Prime Minister simply can’t be arsed showing up. He’s beyond pathetic.
  10. I’m always open to considering alternative viewpoints, and an openness about PCR testing would be very welcome but Julia Hartley-Brewer screaming about 91% OF CASES ARE FALSE POSITIVES six months into a pandemic that’s killed nearly a million people can be safely fired into the sea.
  11. Yup. What’s all the more frustrating from a Scottish standpoint is that we literally lived through the same thing in August and early September. Covid testing here peaked at 27,246 on September 2nd, three weeks after schools went back. On Monday August 10th, the day schools began to return, 7373 tests were carried out (and just over 5k on the 11th). This represents a pretty remarkable increase of 370% in demand for testing. And Dido Harding, Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock sit there and say with a straight face that the increase in demand was ‘unforeseen’? It genuinely defies belief. This is a f**k-up starting to look more like March every day.
  12. Has it though? The data coming out of Glasgow right now isn’t as accurate as it was a couple of weeks ago, the Glasgow Airport site is caught in the same mess as the English system. I genuinely don’t know if tests are being restricted in the area as they’ve done in England but that could be another reason. Hopefully, of course, they genuinely are plateauing but I don’t think we can know that for sure with what is publicly available. We’re getting perilously close to the fabled 5% positivity rate too, Sturgeon seems to pay particular attention to that. Unhindered it looks like we’ll be there in a week at the most. But, another lockdown like the last one just can’t happen without furlough. I’ve been pretty consistent that I think the government will cave and offer it in some form, probably under a new name, to targeted industries. But what i envisaged as a stop-gap to prevent airlines or large industrial sites like Airbus Broughton laying everyone off will, it appears, need to go into hospitality and leisure as well. It now needs to be essentially furlough but maybe tell office employers to either buy Susan from Admin a laptop or get her to f**k. This mess is all so avoidable. That’s the most frustrating part.
  13. They obviously don’t trust the current data. Which is fair enough - it’s wrong.
  14. Remember when ‘Boris’ said social distancing would be punted come November?
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