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Paco

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Paco last won the day on December 1 2020

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  1. This is a good point. Sturgeon will either have made Scotland independent or will be working for the UN by Christmas 2024 (the latest a General Election can be), leaving someone else in charge of the SG. Angus Robertson? Kate Forbes? For true laughs, Humza or Swinney?
  2. I haven’t seen the speech but the outcomes seem fairly pragmatic. Plan A is try asking, which will be a no. Then it’ll be the courts, which I suspect will also be a no. Plan C is the interesting one. I think Sturgeon deserves credit from all sides for not going down the route of an “illegal” referendum as a fair chunk of her party members would like. However what is the detail of using the GE as a ‘de facto’ referendum? If the SNP get more than 50% of the vote, it’s UDI? An extra extra special mandate to ask for a Section 30 again? Or does a simple plurality of seats under FPTP count as a win?
  3. If it were tomorrow, sure, it would be a hammering. After a couple of months of campaigning, whining about Nicola Sturgeon being the next PM, Labour being to blame for strikes, Europe not letting us legally drown brown people in the channel, some Labour idiot saying we should leave NATO and stop supporting Ukraine, and the usual media onslaught? I think at an absolute minimum we’d be into ‘flip a coin’ territory for largest party in parliament. The absolute banter scenario of course would be Labour finishing second but being able to form a government with the support of the SNP and/or Lib Dems. Tears and snotters from Tories as they’re locked out despite ‘winning’ the election.
  4. When Johnson inevitably wins tonight he’ll need to go back to his ‘stay’ position again too. He’ll be full of people’s priorities, decisive result, move on etc midday tomorrow.
  5. 11th in the Premiership, and 9th in the Championship/League 1 get that ‘second chance’. I don’t think it would be right under that system to force 9th in League 2 down automatically. If we see change further up the leagues then sure, I’d be open to it.
  6. The long-term answer is something along the lines of Club 42 going down automatically, to be replaced by the winner of the HL v LL play-off, with the loser of that play-off entering into a play-off competition with Club 41, and either a reasonably simple second place in LL/HL for a four-way play-off or my personal preference some sort of radge 8 team affair (Club 41, promotion play-off losers, 2nd-4th in each league). However until such stage as the Lowland League relegate more than one team (a three way play-off for that one spot, of course), don’t have colt teams and we start to see the made-up clubs and uni teams filtering out I’m not sure it’s wise. The LL as a 16 team league should have a lot more going on than one up, one down.
  7. Today’s announcements then: Households on means-tested benefits of any type to get £650 cash payments, split in two. An extra £300 in winter fuel payment for those who claim. £150 for those on disability benefit that isn’t means-tested. £400 credit applied to everybody’s energy bill, replacing the £200 loan. An extra cost of £15bn (allegedly) to the Exchequer, paid for partially by not a windfall tax but a Temporary Energy Profits Levy. Special Economic Operation, anyone? My gut reaction is it’s actually not too bad for those most in need, some of those offers will stack so a pensioner receiving winter fuel allowance for example will almost stand still with the October price rise. Theoretically, of course - when you’re handing hard cash over to people on the breadline you can’t really complain if it doesn’t last to subsidise a high energy bill next quarter. It doesn’t solve anything, of course. Energy will soon be up £1600 a year for the average house, £400 is very welcome but simply puts a small dent in the worst of it. We still need bigger and much, much bolder intervention and I’d be surprised if Sunak isn’t forced into more - maybe a tax or VAT cut in the budget.
  8. For context of how bad this is, the government could keep the price cap in October, November and December exactly as is - e.g. the already astronomical price millions are struggling with - for a cost of broadly £22billion. We can probably all agree this particular government isn’t spending that to help people out. There’s no way to means test the population without doing it by council bands, which misses millions and indeed takes months to sort, as councils are currently finding out from the council tax rebate. Universal help is probably the only way, and that batters up the cost. We’re fucked. But I genuinely don’t see a solution that doesn’t involve massive, unprecedented state help here.
  9. Easton left Kelty for Airdrie about a week after Thomson was appointed.
  10. It doesn’t sound like we’ve even spoken to Thomson yet, probably just asked Kelty for permission which is the right way to do things if we want to interview him. Would still expect us to interview a selection of candidates, and that process works two ways - if the (alleged) budget offered to McGlynn is offered to the new manager it wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with our third or fourth choice.
  11. I think a reasonable way to frame it is, if it had been widely reported at the time, would Johnson have been forced into resignation? The answer there is undoubtedly yes. The general public were sitting at opposite ends of park benches with one parent at a time, and Johnson was gathering everyone round to watch him blow out his candles. That photo of the little garden party, which isn’t even one of the events the police are bothered about, would probably have done it on its own. Would Starmer have been forced to resign if it had been widely reported at the time? Well, it was! And the police said there was nothing to worry about at the time as well. Imagine going back to April 2021 and being told this time next year, that event that Starmer has already been cleared for will bring him down. Wild stuff.
  12. It’s a clever move from Starmer to be honest. If he was fined he’d have had to resign anyway. I still genuinely don’t see the fuss with ‘beergate’. The entire room could’ve went to a restaurant and had the same curry and pint, what’s the issue with doing the same thing in a hotel? It doesn’t equate to June 2020 when everything was shut and you were allowed to meet one other person, outdoors, at a distance. If he’s cleared, he has the moral high ground. If he’s given a FPN and resigns, Labour have the moral high ground and can retain it if they don’t fumble the new leader (issue here, granted). The shitey middle ground is the police say he probably did break the rules but they don’t retrospectively fine people, and I think that’s probably where we’ll land.
  13. Based on what’s publicly available I really don’t see that there’s a case to answer for them to be honest. Might just be the police getting the media off their back. The clever move from Starmer would be commit to resigning if he’s fined, and then wait to be cleared. Risky, certainly. But high reward. Having a curry in the same room you were working in, with the same people you were working with, when you could’ve all legally went to a restaurant and done the same thing, is really very different to most of what went on at Downing Street.
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