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Paco

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Paco last won the day on March 9 2017

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About Paco

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  1. There’s a second wave going through Iran at the moment, and it’s worse than the first. Any hope that this will just go away is at best completely unfounded. We’re through the looking glass now where the same people who never thought there was a need for a lockdown are looking at the numbers and asking whether we need current restrictions for 200 dead per day, and falling. We’ll get there but it’s idiotic to rush.
  2. I presume there would also need to be willingness to allow the games to be streamed in the UK, which currently rules don’t allow? Hence the ‘how do we get income from it’ statement. And perhaps a ban on clubs sending their own commentators for audio to away games? I’m not at all convinced by streaming as a model unless we’re confident we can see out a season in full with it, if necessary. Trying to limp through to January would be futile if the government said no to crowds then too. I’m relatively optimistic we’ll have crowds in some sort in October in any case. But if playing a season behind closed doors if necessary is going to kill some clubs off, we need to question if it’s worth it.
  3. Seems a bit like English care homes deaths, where we’re meant to believe tens of thousands more than usual died by a weird coincidence, rather than a global pandemic.
  4. Excluding mailed-out tests which may or may not come back with a suitable sample, the UK has hit the 100k testing target, set for the end of April, once. There is no data available on how many home-test kits have produced results. To make it worse, and this is something I genuinely didn’t know, the testing figure announced daily also includes antibody tests which obviously don’t tell you who currently has the virus. So in reality, there have never been 100,000 people tested in the UK for Covid-19 in a day. It’s unlikely to have ever been remotely close. And even including posting out hundreds of thousands of kits, and disingenuously including antibody tests in the figures, we’ve not really come close to Boris Johnson’s 200k figure by the end of May either. Yesterday, there were 135k tests ‘announced’ at the briefing. 36k of these were antibody tests, usually for use by the ONS for research, so we can effectively discount those. 20,669 people were actually tested in hospitals or coronavirus test centres in England. The claim is there were 69k ‘wider population’ tests carried out, with no numbers as to how many people this involved, or what these tests actually are. The reality is very, very different to the 135k tests announced as a headline, isn’t it? I know there’s been rebuke from the UK Statistics Authority and I probably shouldn’t be surprised. But I am gobsmacked they can get away with this.
  5. Here’s your pal in late March, as we were at about 600 deaths per day. Nothing wrong with a bit of optimism but there is something seriously wrong with posting nonsense solely to be optimistic.
  6. Yeah lots of options and none of them good. I presume the Championship is looking at an October start based on an assumption that they’ll just about manage three months of no crowds, but starting in August would be a stretch. In that case there’s going to be need to be some sort of break option, where if we hit January, still playing with no sign of crowds coming back, the season ends as per some pre-determined agreement. Otherwise you’re just going to have clubs signing their own death warrant. I’m sure a lot of mug punters (eg me) would happily buy a season ticket at normal prices and if I ended up watching the lot on Raith TV then so be it. But I’m uncomfortable with the idea of relying on fans generosity as a medium-term business model, and behind closed doors is exactly that.
  7. My concern with starting in October and trying to make January is what do we think is going to have changed by January? There seems to be a belief that everything will magically be better by then simply because it’s a new year. We could be in the grip of a much worse second wave, we could have a vaccine, we really can’t be sure. I wouldn’t want a situation where the club agree to limp through from October until January based on, effectively, a guess that we might be able to get some sort of crowd in by then. If we agree to start the season behind closed doors we need to be sure we’ll be able to finish it that way, if necessary.
  8. To get to Phase 2, we need new cases to show a ‘sustained’ decline. I would say three weeks between review dates is ‘sustained’. Kids are only allowed back to school in Phase 3, however, so clearly current SG expectations are that we’ll be there in early August. This would also allow ‘limited’ crowds in for events, albeit whether dozens of football matches are allowed to let crowds in at that stage and what a restricted crowd looks like is up for debate. Two months really to get through Phase 1 and Phase 2. I don’t see the SG rushing in any way, and that also takes us up to the end of furlough in its current guise.
  9. The only incentive our government has is to downplay deaths. Which is why they withdrew testing from all but the most ill in hospital through the peak - the bodies that just happened to rack up in care homes and the community at that time were just a coincidence. The ONS has retrospectively caught some of them but this leads to right-wing voices like the Professor ‘hearing’ suitable excuses. As a result excess deaths is the only method that captures the full picture. Unarguable deaths, with no bias about why they died. Around 65k people more than usual have died in the UK in the last three months. The overwhelming majority of these will be Covid, missing a bowel screening or not checking out that lump doesn’t kill you immediately. There’s no evidence suicides are higher than usual. No hiding place for the government when it comes to this - we’re the worst in the world.
  10. Obviously. Excess deaths don’t care about the Professor ‘hearing’ things, hence why it is the most valuable tool for understanding which countries have struggled most with the pandemic as a whole.
  11. I see the Professor for Propaganda’s mask has slipped. The official UK figures include only those who tested positive for the virus, and excess deaths which will ultimately be how we judge things doesn’t look at condition at all, only numbers of dead. Still, he’s got a healthy Twitter following and a Daily Express column out of it. He’ll be using that well once everything is over.
  12. I liked Murray and was pretty disappointed he left. We were better without him though, Steven Anderson was a significant upgrade at centre back and we signed an actual left back who went on to win our PoTY rather than making do with him there. Everyone’s a winner with that one, I think. Murray went to a higher league and better wages, the Pars as far as I know quite like him, and we were better for it with a small amount of cash for our trouble.
  13. White shorts with that shirt, surely. And when did light blue become a staple of our home shirt? Three in a row now. I’m not a fan but I’ll wait to see an actual picture of it before judging too harshly. I’ll probably buy it anyway to get some income into the club. First time since the RemembeR shirt I’ll have bought a new one, I think.
  14. There is no five mile rule. It will not be enforced. It’s simply asking you not to f**k off 100 miles for a day out, where your risk of a) needing to use a public toilet is far higher and b) breaking down or crashing the car becomes far more likely. It’s a guidance that won’t be enforced. ‘Don’t take the piss’ would be the slogan if they’d get away with it.
  15. They do. Sometimes the same person gets both of these twice, and the test gets counted four times.
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