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Paco

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Paco last won the day on December 1 2020

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  1. You are forgetting two very important things - vaccine supply, where we weren’t projected to receive 400k a week, even before Pfizer and AZ started backing out of their schedules. But even more importantly, you’ve forgotten the pesky matter of second doses. Everyone who’s received dose 1 by the start of March will need another one by the start of June. That’s why it’ll be into autumn before we get into the rest of the population, assuming nobody else starts supplying beforehand (I have high hopes for J&J’s single doser).
  2. I remain hopeful this is going to be a Biden v Trump style thing, with England racing ahead with their vaccine numbers in the first instance but the plan coming to fruition as time goes on... But it’s starting to look a bit bleak. By my count this is the state of play: Target 1 - middle of Feb to complete priority groups 1 & 2 by Feb 1st. 19,400 per day needed. Should hit it. There is an extra bit of wiggle room in that they Sturgeon said in Parliament ‘start of Feb’. I could get over the 3rd or 4th. Target 2 - 44,600 per day (target 1 plus 25,200 per day) to complete groups up to over 70’s by Monday 15th Feb. Sturgeon committed to ‘middle of Feb’ in Parliament this week. I think Target 2 is now too big to be met. We aren’t doing 44k per day right now, which is needed. We’re barely doing half. So it climbs every day and will be into impossible territory by the middle of next week. Target 3 - There’s also the looming 280k for over 65’s by the start of March, which would be an additional 7.5k per day if starting today (they’re not). 20k per day if we give it a fortnight. In isolation, probably fine - but with the expected backlog from Target 2, I don’t see us making it either.
  3. That’s just ridiculous on every level. Outstanding. John McGlynn is a hero. Really devastating we don’t get to watch this team in person. Because they’re capable of some fucking good football.
  4. He used that quote about not booking a non-refundable holiday weeks ago. This is just tabloids recycling headlines to get clicks.
  5. 25k yesterday is verging towards reasonable status (for now). It should get the over 80’s, care homes and NHS staff done without much fuss by Feb 1st.* What it still doesn’t really do is make much inroads into the mid-Feb target of over 70s. Still very much in line with the published government targets though - no more, no less. *as a caveat to that, there will - obviously - be some individuals who couldn’t make their appointment or were ill or their GP fucked up or they aren’t registered anywhere or they just moved etc etc. I can already see the tabloid headlines as governments (Scotland and UK) declare the target met but Mrs Smith in Lochmaben hasn’t had hers yet.
  6. I’ve never been able to see past Howard from Better Call Saul for Cole-Hamilton. Howard is also a gigantic cock.
  7. Yeah, nothing at all to do with the record number of Covid patients in hospital that’s still rising. Just pointlessly extending it for funsies. I quite like your daily rundown of the 7 day averages but it isn’t the only indicator out there. Today’s have a pretty clear lag as well, only 13k tests reported. We’ll see a bit of a jump in the coming days.
  8. Would you swap it for normal life here? I would. My concern in the UK would be a two-tier approach where it’s banned for the peasants but the ultra-wealthy and those deemed ‘essential’ by the government fly around as they wish, importing the virus anyway.
  9. Yeah this could be any number. Would expect McGlynn to keep his cards close to his chest about exactly who we have available, but clearly we’ll be missing a number of players, and of those who are available they a) haven’t played since Dec 29th and b) will have had a handful of training sessions since the New Year. 5-0 Hearts.
  10. They’ve dropped fairly consistently over the last couple of weeks. The 7 day average is 1,795, last Monday it was 2,150, and Monday 4th it was 2,229. Getting there.
  11. Care homes are ‘almost done’ which will hopefully see resources opened up but that won’t help if GPs don’t have the vaccine! In fact, there are an estimated 555k in Groups 1 & 2, expected to be done by the ‘start of February’. To me that’s Monday 1st Feb. We’ll need to see about 20k a day to get there. So that one is surely very doable. The concerning one is Groups 3, 4 & 5. 880k in there, I think, to be done by the end of Feb. Even if we started today it’s 21k per day, in addition to the 20k or so a day needed to hit the first target. It needs to rise and it needs to rise pretty quickly. In fairness to the SG their plans show an exponential growth in numbers starting next Monday. It’ll be needed!
  12. 265k now vaccinated. Assuming this is upto 8:30am this morning it’s much lower than I was hoping for unfortunately, about 20k done on both Saturday and Sunday. Improvement but not enough. Care homes ‘almost done’. I see no reason for excuses not to be 30-40k a day this week, and we’re going to need to be to get anywhere near the targets.
  13. NHS Louisa Jordan, Glasgow Edinburgh International Conference Centre Pyramids Business Park (Bathgate) Queen Margaret University (Musselburgh) P&J Live at TECA (Aberdeen) Ravenscraig Sports Facility in Motherwell These are all mentioned in the Scottish Government’s vaccine plan as being capable of 20,000+ a week.
  14. https://www.ft.com/content/e8177df6-04ae-4d20-8e62-ca76589c7653 Pfizer distributing about 20% fewer doses than agreed to several European countries, presumably including the UK, for the next few weeks. Could have an impact of about 75k doses in Scotland over the next month. Enough to slow progress but shouldn’t be a significant barrier by any means. Really looking for significant progress in the next week. Government still seem confident they’ll hit their targets but they’ll need to start getting a shift on.
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