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About blue4578

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  1. It's probably no exaggeration to say I've watched over half of Murray's 853 career matches. Definitely the best British sportsman I have seen in an individual sport. Very sad to see him struggling but he can be proud of all the success he has had and the enjoyment he has given everyone watching.
  2. Will be interesting to see what happens, but they'll never get it down to £2.
  3. I apparently hadn't signed in here since January, but just happened to notice this. I've never said that winning at betting is easy, because it isn't. I've had my fair share of stupid bets and there are some sports where I cannot make a profit despite trying (the NFL springs to mind). There are two main things to remember above all else I think: Betting always comes down to simple probability and your ability to estimate the chance of something occurring (ie a team or player winning) Discipline is everything. It is far easier to lose than win, so if you have no discipline you have little chance of winning long-term There are no secrets. I do have a maths degree, but then I've never used anything more than you'd learn doing GCSE maths to bet on football (baseball would be different). If I could put my finger on one helpful attribute, it is being able to look at lots of different information and process it all in your head to make decisions. I have always been able to do this, even when I was 13 or 14. Given a bit of mathematical knowledge, and having followed football (and looked at football odds) for a long time, then being able to estimate the probabilities of teams winning comes fairly easily to me. Other sports are far harder for me to be successful at. I would say if you've been betting for a while and you feel like you're not getting close to cracking it, then you need to be honest with yourself about why. You can't just wake up and decide to be good at something. Past experience and knowledge are all important. Statistics are absolutely fundamental. If you're trying to bet without them, then you're basically guessing. You can of course use the statistics in a million different ways.
  4. van de Velde could've made far more from losing the Open that what the first prize was. Looking at tennis, you don't even have to lose. Imagine a scenario like this; you have one of the very top players playing an early match in a grand slam event against a no-hoper qualifier. The match is on at prime time so there will be a lot of money in-play. I could lay the top player @ 1.01 before the match, let's say I lay £2million, for which the liability would only be £20,000. The player then just has to feign injury during the first set, look like he is at death's door and unable to walk. He can lose the set easily and then call the trainer. At which point he will be odds against to win, maybe even 5/1 or bigger. I can stick my £2million potential lay profit on him to win. He then comes back on court knowing he will crush the qualifier in the last three sets. I make millions and no one has lost on purpose. All of the stories that abound suggest that this is indeed the case. If you look at the list of champions, there aren't too many realistic candidates.
  5. You could easily name 8 players in the draw almost certainly involved in match fixing. Incidentally it doesn't always involve losing the match (or retiring after the first set is complete so bets stand with Betfair and a lot of bookmakers), but there is a player who has a reputation for losing the first set on purpose repeatedly. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/35356550 The latest quote on the BBC sums it up well. If the ATP suggest it either hasn't been going on on a large scale or they didn't know about it, then you might as well put Sepp Blatter or Lamine Diack in charge.
  6. I speak to a couple of guys who I've met through the Betfair VIP events, who travel to tournaments sometimes and speak to the trainers and hitting partners. It seems fixing is a lot more common in the men's game than the women's. Nationality plays a part, with players for Russia, Argentina, Italy and a few Eastern European countries arousing most of the suspicion. I would even go as far as to say that the majority of players from Russia and the former Soviet Union who have been ranked in the top 150 in the past 10 years have been strongly implicated in match fixing. I have spoken at length to people at Betfair who have told me about new accounts opening up in Russia and placing £100,000 bets on Russian players to lose. Even some players who got banned, got the decisions reversed: http://www.skysports.com/tennis/news/12110/10025127/potito-starace-and-daniele-bracciali-have-life-bans-lifted Starace is a higher profile player than most who have been suspended. There have been numerous instances of people being banned (always lower ranked players) for betting a few Euros on a match they weren't playing in. As far as PEDs, I am convinced that two male grand slam champions of recent years are as guilty as any of the Russian athletes currently caught up in the IAAF scandal. I believe that the ATP and ITF are probably almost as guilty as the IAAF for covering it up too. To avoid the small chance of being sued for libel, you'll have to work out who it is yourself.
  7. Not if you don't know in advance because the people who do know have manipulated the odds in their favour. The fixers don't lose every match on purpose, but if you know who they are you're just extremely wary about ever betting on them to win. Tennis has a bigger problem with corruption and performance enhancing drugs than any other major sport, and by some distance.
  8. I could have written that article myself. I have been telling people this exact story for years, and just like when it comes to drugs cheats, tennis just wants to sweep it under the carpet. The summer of 2008 was shameful with blatantly fixed matches on an almost daily basis, and nothing done about it. It's not quite as bad, or as blatant now, but tennis is forever just wanting to avoid the scandal that would ensue by tacking the problem.
  9. I was flicking through the Metro paper this morning and happened to notice one of their recommended bets for the weekend. As far as 100/1 shots go, I've seen better ones.
  10. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06j0br6 The BBC investigated the limiting of certain customers by bookmakers on Radio 5 Live at the weekend, available to listen to for four more weeks.
  11. I did the GSR for the first time at the weekend. I was originally going to do the 10k but the half marathon route looked interesting so I ended up entering and running both races. I'm really glad I did as the half marathon was a nice run that I could appreciate more as I just jogged it really. Will be back next year to give it a proper go, without having run the 10k just before.
  12. Until you earn 1,000 Betfair points to get you a discount. Premium Charge, you have to have paid less than 20% in charges of the amount of your gross profit (commission paid is deducted from total winnings). There is a £1,000 allowance and any big win constituting over 50% of your profits is excluded. You have to have placed at least 250 bets also. For the "super" Premium Charge it is £250,000 in profit and 1000 total bets, with commission generated being less than 40% of your gross profits. Basically not something to worry about until you are several thousands in profit. 1%,whether you win or lose. They actually used to pay layers 0.6% on certain markets like baseball in the good old days. No extra charges that I know of. The margins and limits vary. When markets first open, the margins are higher and limits lower to allow the money to basically dictate where the market is set. I used to arb using Pinnacle extremely extensively going back a lot of years when bookmakers would take bets. I lost hundreds of thousands of pounds at Pinnacle because their markets were much more efficient than bookmakers who had static lines that their traders only altered manually. One decent-sized bet at Pinnacle will automatically shift their line. They make money by having efficient markets so that they are taking bets on all outcomes.
  13. Bournemouth certainly shouldn't be close to Evens to win that game, much too low. Villa currently 4.3 on Betfair. Generally I think Bournemouth are a good bet to get relegated, and may well be the worst of the promoted teams.
  14. I did try and post this the other night, but the site was offline when I hit post. I am happy to write off Nadal, as he is only going to go one way from here in my opinion. I've been telling people since the start of the year he had no chance of winning this tournament. For the first four rounds he had a very kind draw, and would have lost to Murray, Wawrinka and possibly a few others if he had met them I believe. The stat that flashed up near the end of the match was very telling; Djokovic led the forehand winners count 23-3 (may have changed slightly in the last game or two). Three forehand winners in a match at Roland Garros; that's astonishing. Djokovic is currently 1.21 to win the semi-final and 1.37 to win the tournament. I think that underestimates Murray's recent performances. However the pattern against Djokovic head-to-head lately has often been to match him for two or two and a half sets before completely collapsing. Was that mental or physical? I have a sneaking suspicion for a close match, possibly five sets, but then for the past number of years when betting on the French Open I'd have been better off just lighting a bonfire of £20 notes to save time during this tournament. This year I've called it virtually all correctly but not wagered a penny on it. If Wawrinka plays like he did against Federer, and Nadal in Rome, then he can win this tournament also. Djokovic was similarly favoured to win the tournament before he lost the US Open semi-final to Nishikori. Certainly much to play for.
  15. I've had accounts closed within an hour of opening before I'd even placed a bet. Hard to find another explanation for that.
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