xbl
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Posts posted by xbl
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Probably about right.
I thought it was agreed upon that their methodology is flawed?
No, it was "agreed" by the Unionists. They seem to have forgotten how every single other pollster was dismantled just as easily.
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Does anyone know what percentage the hardcore vote is likely to be on each side?
Not knowledge, as thats impossible to know, but I reckon (based on an educated guess) that the hardcore vote is probably a bit over 30% for both sides, with them both pretty much equal.
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And the follow up to show the trend:
Small month-by-month changes in opinion have now reduced the lead of the No vote by five percentage points since September, and by seven percentage points among those certain to vote.
In September, 25% said they would vote Yes and 44% backed a No vote, giving an anti-independence lead of 19 percentage points, compared with just 14 points in the latest poll.
Among those certain to vote, in the latest poll 45% intend to vote No, 30% will vote Yes and 25% don’t know how they will vote, giving the No vote a 15 percentage point lead. This is compared with the September poll when 50% said No, 28% said Yes and 22% said they did not know how they would vote - a 22 point lead for No.
Thats right, 5 points down since September. Bring it.
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Those unionists have beem awfully quiet this last week.
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For those of us that don't get the ft?
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Bbbbb bu but I thought the polls hadn't changed all year?
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Reynard isn't legally qualified. Much like chicBurma.
Ad Lib and I are. Which is why we are right (much as it pains you) on these matters and idiots like chicBurma get their arses served to them on a platter every time they purport to know things.
Ah yes, I remember that, you're both much more qualified than "some nobody from northwestern", as he knew nothing about international law. That would be US ambassador to the UN, specialised in international law, and head of a massive centre for international law. You'll excuse us if we laugh heartily at your "I know everything and am never wrong" statements.
Edited to add, and of course, when Reynard did mention it, and not just once, neither you or any of the law squad felt any impulse to "keep him honest". Not once...
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Where?
Where?
You didn't have a problem with it before, and now suddenly you do? Yes Reynard.
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I've already answered that.
It will depend on whether Scotland can negotiate with the EU prior to their anticipated Independence date, on how the negotiations go with the other members who are deciding on Scotland's application and how determined the new Scottish government would be to stick to an arbitrary date in 2016.
Scotland isn't a member of the EU currently so cannot be "kicked out".
That isn't an answer. The law squad have insisted that it cannot be negotiated from within the CDU, and negotiations can't start until independence. Indeed, Reynard has made this point more than once, and not once has the law squad questioned it. So when will we be kicked out?
You've also tried this not in the EU argument before. Wrong. We are.
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I am not married to this forum - unlike yourself. Though Im amazed you have had the nerve to return after your pant-shitting performance on the 50 posters thread.
Who is "we"?
Oooh, goalpost moving, deflection, and an attack too. When will kicking out day be?
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Like who?
Are you saying you know more than Professor Matthew Happold, Professor James Crawford, Professor Alan Boyle and Professor Stephen Tierney?
By the way, when do those eminent names say kicking out day will be? You left the forum for a few days rather than answer that one. When will we be officially kicked out?
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Answer the questions - there are only three. Shouldn't tax you too much...
Why should he? You do nothing but duck dive, lie, and deflect. Why should he help you out when anyone can see that you're making a fool of yourself. Again.
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Oh dear. Desperate stuff.
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Interestingly he studied at the University of Glasgow !
At least it wasn't law.
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Well, what I give is the acual truth. Not one I have invented, like yourself.
Said one of the biggest liars on the forum.
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I've had a quick look at the IPSOS MORI poll.
If you weight it on the constituency votes from the 2011 election the results are actually:
YES 37.7%
NO 49.6%
UNDECIDED 12.7%
YES 43.2%
NO 56.8%
I wonder why STV are so against independence.
I'm not sure entirely what you mean? Could you explain in a little more depth please? What figures are these and how did you calculate them? Not having a go, just interested!
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I just had a quick look at the polls for 2011. As usual H_B gives a tiny wee bit of the story. The bit he likes. On 4th April 2011. Four weeks prior to the election SNP and Labour were 37% each. The poll he referred to in Feb 2011 had the SNP ahead by 1%. This was the only poll prior to April 4th to do so. According to the polls the SNP won the election by landslide in the last week of the election.
Well researched. Its the same as for many referendums and elections. People don't get engaged properly until the last couple months. Even HB knows this and has admitted it, so why he maintains the law squad fiction is something of a mystery.
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Problem?
You don't see one? Do you identify as English? Or welsh?
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So in 3 months they went from behind to a landslide victory. Sort of proves his point tbh, in a more accurate kind of way.
Really puts the current polls into context, wouldn't you say?
Not just behind, but a long way behind! Long enough for posters like hb and reynard to predict a big snp defeat. Furthermore as even hb has said, the final result is going to be much, much closer than the current polls. Even he agrees that the current figures are not representative. Makes you wonder why he keeps making such a big deal...
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Let me help you:
i have doubts over an independent Scotlands currency
The pound.
We will be in it, no doubt there.have doubts over EU membership
We are already in the EU.how that would influence Scotland as an independent nation
The subs can get to f**k. We will have a small army. This has been covered in all kinds of paper.i also have doubts over what would happen with the military and nuclear facilities
We can provide concrete justification for our motives. Whether it is historic examples of London deliberately selling Scotland short, the neo-liberal state that seems to be creeping in, the racism and bigotry of the British government, energy prices, population issues, there are a million and one reasons to vote yes.question a lot of the "yes" voters motives for the vote.
There are very few reasons to vote no. You get a choice of fear (which seems to be your chosen option), racism, stupidity, or Alex Salmond (which is moronic).
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Ah, so you're a nationalist, that makes sense.Yep to a certain extent.
On another note, its time for another begging plea from Carmichael:
Scottish independence: ‘Business must speak up’
SCOTTISH Secretary Alistair Carmichael has made an impassioned appeal to the business community in Scotland to get “its voice heard” in the referendum debate “before it is too late” at a reception in London.
Funny, the Yes side never seem to have a problem getting businesses to support them...
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Are you anti EU? That might explain why you are voting no, perhaps you would prefer to be out of the EU?
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Good on you. If you were convinced by debate and research then a lot of people you know will be, too. Once you get them out of the "too wee, too poor" and "I pure hate Salmond" mindset it's a complete no-brainer. Turn a hard no into a soft no and you're three-quarters of the way there.
I make a terrible converter these days. A few years back, I was excellent at arguing my point reasonably and converting people, but as independence shifted from pipe dream to real hope, to potentially imminent, my views also shifted with it. I am very much more of an extremist than I was a few years back. I find myself reacting to the too wee too poor nonsense very negatively.
I've only made one convert recently, and he asked me to keep my voice down when I was converting him because I was (and I quote) "inciting hatred" against the British Government. Im not good at this any more.
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Scottish Independence - How will you vote? MkII
in The Politics Forum
Posted
We've got to work better as a forum. We have a legal thread and a polling thread, so when they start of with their pish, just tell them to post on the correct threads. I admit its hard, given that they are such good point and laugh material, but we all have to do better to control ourselves!