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Everything posted by Adamski

  1. No live action though - cupping his ear, wagging his finger, punching the air etc like he'd just scored a goal would have earned extra points.
  2. It a pattern, just as people use to base decisions on all sorts of aspects of their lives. I don't think anyone is suggesting that an increase like that will go on until the end of time, but in the absence of something that changes the state of play like a lockdown or some event that brings about lots of mixing, it's the best guess that can be made. Anyone who presents it as anything else is overplaying their hand.
  3. I've got a few irons in the fire as far as Covid is concerned, but I'm definitely no expert. And I don't think models tell the whole story, but they do have a part to play. If they're good then they should give forewarning of things that are worth preparing for or highlighting when that's not the case. And there's some things that aren't exactly rocket science: if on Monday to Thursday the case rates are about 1.5 times what they were last week, then on Friday they'll most likely they'll be about 1.5 times what they were last Friday too. They might not be, but it's a best guess. I don't think it'll surprise anyone that the biggest rises in cases this year happened during the initial unlocking in May, the Euros (which has the record for the current week to week rise), when the schools went back, and now. I personally know quite a few of the people who have been in the press and on TV throughout all of this, including one very high profile one. Certainly of them, I'd be very surprised if there's anyone who sees this as their fifteen minutes of fame and an opportunity to make a name for themselves. Mainly people who hope that their expertise can add to the general understanding of the virus and make a bit of a difference to the outcome, and who would rather it was all done so that they can get back to their normal lives and doing the types of science they enjoy. And it's not hard to find people in the community who are opposed to the types of restrictions currently being put in place. People want clear answers. All scientists can do is offer their best guess based on their experiences of other respiratory viruses, plus the two years or so to learn about this one. And if possible present those guesses clearly, and taking into account the economic/social/mental factors that might not point to the same conclusions as the scientific ones.
  4. 4,336 Good. Taxi for me and my model. (6,522 tomorrow). Edit: just checked back - it's the highest % it has been out by since June. Great day to pick to post on P&B about it.
  5. As I've alluded to before on this thread, I'm a scientist working on infectious diseases, and although Covid isn't really my specialty, it's something I've become increasingly involved in over the past year or so - particularly in terms of what is happening with it in Africa. Anyway, on the back of all that I have a model that predicts how many cases will be reported in Scotland each day. It sometimes fails, but it's usually not too bad. The most reported in Scotland in one day since this all began was 7,113. Today the model is predicting 8,868. Obviously that goes without any predictors of how it translates to hospitalisation and death. Fingers crossed it's out on the low side, and feel free to shoot me and it down in a few hours if so!
  6. This lot are vile, although we already knew that. And nobody of any level of importance will apologise or resign, of course. Imagine the press reaction if this had happened at Bute House.
  7. Fingers crossed! Definitely put a wave of extra stress on a quick weekend away.
  8. Any word on when the PCR tests will start being needed? I’m abroad at the moment, due back tomorrow night, passenger locator form already completed and day 2 lateral flow already organised.
  9. 'Here we, here we, here we fucking go' is so prevalent at gigs, festivals, etc in Scotland. I'm surprised it has never found its way to Scotland games. I think it would work quite well at times like the aftermath of a crucial goal.
  10. My mate booked them through a company called Sports Travel Guru. We paid £90 - a seat in club level, stadium tour, free drink at half time, programme, £5 club shop voucher. Think we had access to the museum as well. Pretty happy with it as a one-off experience, and my mate said the company were good to deal with.
  11. …and then Arsenal v Watford on Sunday afternoon. The Emirates is an impressive beast of a football stadium (I’ve been before - when Scotland played Brazil - but can barely remember it as I don’t think I’ve ever been so hungover at a football match). We paid a touch extra for a package that got you good seats and various other perks - a stadium tour, programme, money off at the club shop, etc. As a one-off experience it was just about worth it. And the place you spend time in before/during/after the game is pretty swanky - like a fancier airport departure lounge. Swanky prices too though. My mate paid £11.50 for a burger. Not extras like chips or extra fillings though - that would have been £20! All in all, it’s a long way from Palmerston. Like Brighton the night before, no classic but enough to keep things entertaining. They probably had the chances to have won by more, but as the song goes it was 1-0 to the Arsenal. Here’s Aubameyang about to miss his penalty…
  12. Brighton 1 v 1 Newcastle on Saturday evening. Not a classic, but enough to keep it entertaining. Brighton finished the game with defender Lewis Dunk in goal after their keeper was sent off, but Newcastle never really tested him. Brighton probably we’re marginally better, but a draw seemed fair. Also we were sitting beside possibly the sweariest man I’ve ever encountered at the football, which kept us amused when the game was quiet. It’s a new stadium done well, and Brighton have done a good job of giving it some character. And they sell it out every home game. Fair old trek to and from the city centre (£18 in a taxi), but a fun place for a night out afterwards.
  13. We had a great weekend - pals I've not seen since Covid happened, lots of football, and beer to a level that I've grown out of practice with. Brighton v Newcastle on Saturday evening, followed by Arsenal v Watford on Sunday afternoon. Neither of the games were classics, but enough incidents to keep us entertained: VAR had hands in both games, red cards, penalties, Brighton finishing the game with an outfield player in goal, etc. Brighton was a good night out, and the Emirates is an impressive beast of a stadium - a long, long way from Palmerston! It's good to be back doing stuff like that again. Hopefully more before too long.
  14. Total, total own-trumpet blowing, but here’s some science wot I done. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.02.21265755v1 Two mutations, both common in people with African ancestry. People who carry both mutations (maybe around 5% of black people in the UK) might have a higher risk of hospitalisation and death if they get Covid.
  15. Has this already been posted? If not, this: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/union-jack-flag-bbc-tim-davie-b1820715.html?jwsource=cl
  16. We’ve been a bit scuppered by the draw and the TV scheduling, so our FA Cup weekend has evolved into a Premier League one. Brighton v Newcastle on the Saturday, then Anrsenal v Watford on the Sunday. Arsenal to St Albans v Forest Green to Luton Airport for the flight home is just about doable on the Sunday, but sounds like a bit of a mad rush and might well be feeling footballed out by then. Anybody been to a game at St Albans? Worth the detour? Anyway - first weekend away with pals in a very long time and really looking forward to it.
  17. I think a taxi might be the way to go - or maybe leaving a touch before the end. I'm a habitual fine-cutter when it comes to flights though! In normal circumstances I'd reckon 7:45ish at the airport would probably be OK.
  18. Cheers for those replies. Basically, I'm down in London for a weekend of football with a group of pals, which we timed to coincide with the first round of the FA Cup. I see that St Albans v Forest Green is on the Sunday with a 17:15 kick off. St Albans's ground looks to be a five minute walk from the station, from there there's trains to Luton Airport Parkway every few minutes, and it's something like an 11 minute journey. I'm wondering if I can get to that game and still make my flight. Maybe I'll try and leave a few minutes early.
  19. I’m flying from Luton to Glasgow in a couple of weeks. It’ll be the first time I’ve been on a plane since March 2020. I’ll have checked in in advance and be hand luggage only. Given that it’s a domestic flight, is it likely to take me any longer than pre-Covid times to get through the airport? Basically I’m trying to judge what the latest time I could arrive at the airport for a 9pm flight is.
  20. Corinthian Casuals and Dorking both out on penalties this evening. Bummer - two of our top picks of games to go to.
  21. That's pretty close to our shortlist as well. Maybe also Dagenham and Redbridge v Salford.
  22. Ach, after that draw it's not to be, unfortunately. Not a huge amount of eye-catching ties in the London/South East area at first glance - was kind of hoping for a wee non-league team at home to a Portsmouth/Sunderland/Ipswich type club. I'm sure we'll find a game or two in amongst that lot though.
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