QUOTE (Swampy @ Nov 28 2008, 12:31)

I'm putting 1 unit on a Lyon - Valenciennes draw at 5.5. Valenciennes are in a massive crisis while Lyon are on cloud nine after reaching the next stage of the Champions League. Furthermore VAFC don't play well away from home, while Lyon's Gerland is a fortress. So why am I backing the draw? Simply because I think that VAFC have their backs so firmly against the wall that if they're going to strike back it's going to be now, whereas Lyon may well rotate their squad for this game. I have low confidence in this actually occuring, hence 1 unit, but I think it's a possibility.
Lyon will also be without Karim Benzema. I still reckon Lyon will knock 3 or 4 past them as they looked good against La Viola midweek.
In the non-cup games I like the look of:
Aston Villa 8/13 - Fulham have picked up but still poorer away from the Cottage. Villa will have Carew back and have had two fantastic results previously.
Man Utd 5/6 - Lost both derbies last season and haven't won or scored in their past two matches. Maybe that is reason to back against them but I can only see them winning especially if Berbatov is playing which I think he will.
Plymouth 4/5 - The simple reason that I think they are a lot better than Blackpool.
Watford 4/5 - New manager, were unlucky midweek and Doncaster well they are Doncaster.
I also like the look of Wolves and Sheff Wed but not as confident about them as the ones above. The thing about Wolves is that they keep winning in these tight games against teams around them and I know as soon as I back them they won't win. Sheff Wed have a great home record and have only conceded two at Hillsborough (I think). Dundee Utd are also worth a look.
I think I will keep my league and cup selections seperate but these are the ones I facny in the cup:
Bradford 6/5 home to Leyton Orient.
Rochdale 5/6 away to Forest Green - Rochdale have always got goals in them.
Carlisle Ev. away to Grays - Third time lucky.
Peterborough 8/11 - Always fancy them at home.
Livingston 4/7 away to Shire.
Albion Rovers 18/8 home to Queens Park.
Morton 6/5 away to Peterhead.
Raith 4/9 home to Alloa.
Will narrow these down to a 5/6 team coupon.
Three teams to look at in Europe:
B.M'gladbach 5/6 home to Cottbus
Catania 4/6 home to Lecce - Catania great at home.
Lille 8/13 home to Lorient
This probably should be on the other thread.